EUROPEAN COMMISSION HORIZON 2020 PROGRAMME - TOPIC H2020-LC-BAT-2020 Solutions for large batteries for waterborne transport GRANT AGREEMENT No. 963560 D1.2 – Market evolution and potential within 5, 10, 15 years for different marine applications 1 / 117 GA No. 963560 Report details Deliverable No. SEABAT D1.2 Deliverable Title Market evolution and potential within 5, 10, 15 years for different marine applications Deliverable Date 2021-05-25 Dissemination level Public (PU) Author Driss Madouch (FC-SI) 2021-05-31 WP leader Andrea Lombardi (FC-SI) 2021-05-31 Reviewers Peter Rampen (DAMEN) 2021-05-25 Morshed Mohammad (ABEE) Coordinator Jeroen Stuyts (Flanders Make) 2021-05-27 Project Abstract The goal of the SEABAT project is to develop a full-electric maritime hybrid battery concept that is based on: • Modularly combining high-energy batteries and high-power batteries, • novel converter concepts and • production technology solutions derived from the automotive sector. The modular approach will reduce component costs (battery cells, convertors) so that unique ship designs can profit from economies of scale by using standardised low-cost components. The concept will be suitable for ships requiring up to 1 MWh of storage or more. D1.2 – Market evolution and potential within 5, 10, 15 years for different marine applications – PU 2 / 117 GA No. 963560 Public summary The recent worldwide interest on the environmental issue has led to a dramatic increase on the battery use on board different types of vessels. In this context, the main purpose of this document is to identify the current state of the marine battery market and develop a forecast of its evolution with a 15-year horizon. Therefore, the activity of this task of the SEABAT project is aimed to: • identify the current state of the technologies available on the market where, as shown in Figure 43, it can be seen that the NMC LFP and LTO lithium battery technologies are the most used at the moment, • identify the current state of the shipping market, represented by the number of units under construction and performing a forecast for the next few years, as proposed in paragraph 3.6, • identify the state of the near innovations for the battery systems and propose a preliminary roadmap of battery development, as shown in Figure 10, • Developing a market forecast of the battery market for maritime use with 15 years of time horizon, as summarized from Figure 90 to Figure 95. From the previous analyses it can be defined how, in order to be competitive with the future market in the next 15 years, it is necessary to develop a standard of battery module for marine use that can meet the needs of different applications. Medium and large-range applications (from 1 MWh upwards) will be the proponent ones on the next market. For this reason, the batteries must guarantee modularity, flexibility and safety such that they can be easily integrated on board different types of ships with different system configurations. D1.2 – Market evolution and potential within 5, 10, 15 years for different marine applications – PU 3 / 117 GA No. 963560 Contents 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Purpose of the document ........................................................................................................ 8 1.2 Document structure ................................................................................................................ 8 2 Methods ........................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Market description and segmentation .................................................................................... 9 2.2 Forecast ................................................................................................................................. 10 2.3 Partners involved and contributions ..................................................................................... 10 3 Results ............................................................................................................................................ 11 3.1 Battery energy storage system available technologies ......................................................... 11 3.1.1 Primary cells ...................................................................................................................... 11 3.1.2 Secondary cells .................................................................................................................. 12 3.1.3 Lead Acid and Sodium Technologies ................................................................................. 13 3.1.4 Zero Emission Batteries Research Activities (ZEBRA) or (Na-NiCl2) Technologies ............ 14 3.1.5 Nickel-based battery Technologies ................................................................................... 15 3.1.6 Flow battery or Redox battery Technologies .................................................................... 17 3.1.7 Lithium-ion Batteries Technologies ................................................................................... 18 3.2 Summary of the existing Lithium-ion batteries ..................................................................... 20 3.2.1 Cathode material ............................................................................................................... 20 3.2.2 Anode materials ................................................................................................................ 24 3.2.3 Comparison of cathode and anode materials and future prospectives ............................ 26 3.3 Overview on the next generation of battery technologies ................................................... 27 3.3.1 Solid-state lithium-ion batteries ........................................................................................ 27 3.3.2 Zinc-ion batteries ............................................................................................................... 28 3.3.3 Rechargeable metal-air ..................................................................................................... 29 3.3.4 Lithium-sulphur ................................................................................................................. 30 3.3.5 Dual-ion batteries .............................................................................................................. 31 3.3.6 Cobalt-free lithium-ion batteries....................................................................................... 32 3.3.7 Other technologies ............................................................................................................ 33 3.3.8 Most promising technologies for maritime use ................................................................ 35 3.4 Analysis of seagoing vessels .................................................................................................. 37 3.4.1 Current fleet and sizes ....................................................................................................... 38 3.4.2 Vessel type......................................................................................................................... 39 3.4.3 Inland vessels..................................................................................................................... 45 3.4.4 River cruise fleet ................................................................................................................ 46 3.4.5 Ship type by Installed power ............................................................................................. 47 3.5 Current battery market overview ......................................................................................... 51 3.5.1 International battery market ............................................................................................. 51 3.5.2 International maritime battery market ............................................................................. 54 3.5.3 Application of batteries ..................................................................................................... 74 3.6 New buildings market evolution over the next 5-10-15 years .............................................. 83 3.6.1 Forecast Vessels with IMO number by largest vessel types.............................................. 84 3.7 Evolution of the battery market for marine applications ................................................... 100 D1.2 – Market evolution and potential within 5, 10, 15 years for different marine applications – PU 4 / 117 GA No. 963560 3.7.1 RoRo-pax ......................................................................................................................... 101 3.7.2 Special vessels ................................................................................................................. 101 3.7.3 Cruise vessels ................................................................................................................... 101 3.7.4 Naval vessels .................................................................................................................... 102 3.7.5 Maritime battery market forecast 5-10-15 years............................................................ 102 4 Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations ......................................................................... 109 4.1 Conclusions .........................................................................................................................