Summary Modes and methods of production in France in 2040: what consequences will they have on occupational safety and health? With the support and assistance of In partnership with L’Institut national de recherche et de sécurité (INRS) In the field of occupational risk prevention, INRS is a scientific and technical body that works on an institutional level with the Caisse nationale d’assurance maladie des travailleurs salariés (CNAMTS), Caisses d’Assurance Retraite et de la Santé au Travail (CARSATs), Caisse régionale d’assurance maladie d'Île-de-France (CRAMIF) and Caisses Générales de Sécurité Sociale (CGSSs). As the need arises, it also works for Government departments as well as for any other body that deals with occupational risk prevention. It has developed a body of multidisciplinary know-how that is available to all those responsible for risk prevention in businesses, such as employers, occupational physicians, Comités d’hygiène, de sécurité et des conditions de travail (CHSCTs), and workers. To help deal with such complex issues, INRS has scientific, technical and medical skills covering a very wide range of disciplines, all aimed at controlling occupational risks. For instance, INRS draws up and distributes a number of documents concerning occupational health and safety, such as publications (periodical or not), posters, audiovisual aids, multimedia and a web site. INRS publications are distributed by the CARSATs. They may be obtained from the Service Prévention of the CARSATs or CGSSs. INRS is a non-profit organization (law of 1901) set up under the aegis of CNAMTS and subject to the financial control of the State. It is run by a joint Board of Directors made up of two colleges representing in equal numbers employers and employees, which is chaired in turn by a representative of each college. It is almost entirely funded by the National Fund for the Prevention of Occupational Accidents and Diseases. Caisses d’Assurance Retraite et de la Santé au Travail (CARSATs), Caisse Régionale d’Assurance Maladie d'Île-de-France (CRAMIF) and Caisses Générales de Sécurité Sociale (CGSSs) In order to help reduce occupational risks in their region, CARSATs, CRAMIF and CGSSs have a prevention department made up of consulting engineers and safety inspectors. They are specifically trained in occupational risk prevention disciplines and use their everyday experience of businesses to advise, and under certain conditions back up, the company stakeholders (management, occupational physicians, CHSCT, etc.) in implementing the most suitable prevention approaches and tools for each situation. All the documents published by INRS are available from them. Any complete or partial performance or reproduction made without the consent of INRS, the author or of his successors in title or assignment shall be unlawful. The same shall apply to translation, adaptation or transformation, arrangement or reproduction by any technique or process whatsoever (article L. 122-4 of the French Intellectual Property Code). Infringement of copyright (counterfeiting) is liable to a three-year imprisonment and a fine of €300,000 (article 335-2 and following of the French Intellectual Property Code). © INRS, 2017. Graphic Design: Opixido. Cover illustration: Eva Minem / INRS Photos: page 25 © vetre – Fotolia Modes and methods of production in France in 2040: what consequences will they have on occupational safety and health? Summary PV 4 September 2017 (Translated from: Modes et méthodes de production en France en 2040 : quelles conséquences pour la santé et la sécurité au travail ? Synthèse. INRS, November 2016) Contents A word from the Director-General .................................................................. p. 5 The foresight exercise ........................................................................................ p. 6 Method ........................................................................................................................................................................... p. 6 The transformations in production in France over the last 25 years ............................................................. p. 6 The transformations in employment and in work ............................................................................................. p. 7 General context ............................................................................................................................................................ p. 9 The issues ....................................................................................................................................................................... p. 9 References ...................................................................................................................................................................... p. 9 Composition of the project group........................................................................................................................... p. 10 List of participants in the interviews and in the foresight workshops ........................................................ p. 10 The partners .................................................................................................................................................................. p. 12 Issue 1 – What will France produce tomorrow? .............................................. p. 14 What are we talking about? ..................................................................................................................................... p. 15 What are we observing? ............................................................................................................................................ p. 15 Foresight hypotheses and their impacts on occupational safety and health ............................................ p. 19 An illustration of a service society: France, leisure park and sanatorium for the world ........................ p. 24 Issue 2 – Robotisation – automation ................................................................. p. 26 What are we talking about? ..................................................................................................................................... p. 27 What are we observing? ............................................................................................................................................ p. 27 Foresight hypotheses and their impacts on occupational safety and health ............................................ p. 35 Issue 3 – Going back to local as a tool for development? ............................. p. 38 What are we talking about? ..................................................................................................................................... p. 39 What are we observing? ............................................................................................................................................ p. 39 The question of the circular economy ................................................................................................................... p. 49 Issue 4 – Towards a multiplicity of work forms? ............................................. p. 52 What are we talking about? ..................................................................................................................................... p. 53 What are we observing? ............................................................................................................................................ p. 53 Foresight hypotheses and their impacts on occupational safety and health ............................................ p. 62 A fictional scenario: a day in the life of Polly Semy ........................................................................................... p. 64 Issue 5 – How will prescription of work and pace of work change? ............................................................... p. 66 What are we talking about? ..................................................................................................................................... p. 67 What are we observing? ............................................................................................................................................ p. 67 Foresight hypotheses and their impacts on occupational safety and health ............................................ p. 71 A word from the Director-General The initial drive to conduct strategic foresight exercises at INRS came from our board of directors. Over the years, as Director-General, I wanted to make this activity a tool enabling internal and external cooperation between teams to be developed, underpinned by the logic of multi- disciplinarity that is inherent to prospective analysis. I am therefore very attached to the utility of this approach. This applies particularly to the exercise whose main findings are compiled in this document: "Modes and methods of production in France in 2040: what consequences will they have on occupational safety and health?", for which we have worked in partnership with: – Anact (French National Agency for the Improvement of Working Conditions); – Anses (French National Agency for Food, Environmental, and Occupational Health & Safety); – Aravis-Aract Auvergne – Rhône-Alpes (a regional agency for improving working conditions); – Dares (Directorate for the Coordination of Research, Studies, and Statistics of the French Ministry in charge of Labour); – Direction des risques