The Saban Forum 2010 A U.S.–Israel Dialogue U.S.-Israel Relations: Facing Hard Choices 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. Washington, DC 20036 December 10-12, 2010 Phone: 202-797-6462, Fax: 202-797-2481 www.brookings.edu/sabancenter FRONT COVER: Top (Left to Right): Salam Fayyad, Ehud Barak, Haim Saban. Bottom (Left to Right): William J. Clinton, Tzipi Livni, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Tony Blair, Dan Meridor. The Saban Forum 2010 A U.S.–Israel Dialogue U.S.-Israel Relations: Facing Hard Choices Washington, D.C. December 10-12, 2010 Speakers and Moderators Elliott AbrAms dAvid Gregory itAmAr rAbiNoviCh Uzi ArAd moshE hAlbErtAl tErje rød-lArsen EhUd bArAk EFrAim hAlEvy ChArliE rosE NAhUm bArnea Jane hArman dennis ross howArd bErman mArtiN iNdyk hAim sAban toNy blAir JErEmy issachAroff kArim sAdjadpoUr dAvid brooks stuart lEvEy daniEl shApiro hillAry rodhAm CliNtoN JosEph liEbErman Ari shAvit williAm J. CliNtoN tzipi livNi JAmEs b. stEiNbErG robErt EiNhorN JohN mCCAiN NAmik tan shAi FEldman dan mEridor lEoN wiEsEltiEr sAlAm FAyyAd GEorge mitChEll philip zElikow JeffrEy FEltman shaul mofaz thomAs FriEdman kenneth m. pollack A Letter from the Chairman . 5 List of Participants . 6 Program Schedule . 17 A Conversation with President William J . Clinton . 21 Keynote Address by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton . 25 Keynote Address by Minister of Defense Ehud Barak . 35 Session One: Iran—Synchronizing the Clocks . 41 Session Two: Shifting Balances of Power in the Middle East . 47 Luncheon Session: The Impact of the Midterm Elections on U .S . Middle East Policy . 53 Session Three: Hard Choices on Non-Proliferation . 57 Dinner Session: Trends in Israeli and American Societies . 61 Session Four: Hard Choices on Hamas . 65 Session Five: The Road Ahead . 69 Concluding Luncheon Session: Does the Two-State Solution Have a Future? . 73 The Forum comes out of my belief that bringing together leaders from the United States, Israel, and the international community for frank dialogue can and does generate creative approaches to solving seemingly intractable problems . A Letter from the Chairman THE MIDDLE EAST HAS CHANGED in profound ways since the Saban Forum convened in December 2010. From the streets of Tunis to Tahrir Square in Cairo, the world witnessed history written in a way that no one had expected. While many of our old assumptions were overturned, the protests and their after- math have made clear that at least one thing remains the same: the Middle East continues to be at the heart of the most difficult and urgent policy dilemmas fac- ing the United States and Israel. Because of this, each year the Saban Forum convenes government officials, journalists, and members of the think tank community to discuss both the long- standing and immediate challenges that the U.S. and Israeli governments must address. The Forum comes out of my belief that bringing together leaders from the United States, Israel, and the international community for frank dialogue can and does generate creative approaches to solving seemingly intractable problems. Saban Forum 2010, “U.S.-Israel Relations: Facing Hard Choices,” was held in Washington, DC at a time when questions loomed large, but answers weren’t necessarily clear. We met as peace negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians floundered, as Tehran persisted in its defiance of the international community, and as both Tehran and Ankara sought to use the unsettled landscape in the region to redraw the Middle East’s power balance. Our Forum convened within shifting Is- raeli and American political climates as well, with voters in both countries having moved rightward and having cast their focus inward. We asked our participants difficult questions:S hould the international community engage Hamas? Is a two- state solution still possible? Will the current policy of sanctions and engagement be enough to stop Iran’s acquisition of nuclear capabilities? In answering these questions, we were honored to hear from several lead- ing officials, including President William J. Clinton, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, former Prime Minister Tony Blair, Minister of Defense Ehud Barak, Deputy Secretary of State James Stein- berg, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Intelligence and Atomic Energy Dan Meridor, Ambassador of Turkey Namik Tan, Leader of the Opposition Tzipi Livni, Special Envoy George Mitchell, and Majority Leader Eric Cantor, as well as other distinguished members of Congress. In order to promote a candid exchange of views, we hold the Forum under the “Chatham House Rule,” meaning that participants are free to use the infor- mation discussed, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speakers may be revealed. What follows is our summary of the discussion, as well as transcripts of the keynote addresses and those sessions that were held on the record. I hope this report offers insight into the hard, but necessary, choices the U.S. and Israeli governments will have to make in the Middle East. HAIM SABAN Chairman, The Saban Forum U . S . -ISRAEL relations: FACING HARD CHOICES 5 S a b a n F o r u m 2010 American Participants Elliott AbrAms howArd bErmAn S enior Fellow for Middle Eastern United States House of Studies, Council on Foreign Representatives (CA-28). Relations. GAry AckErmAn dAvid brooks United States House of Columnist, The New York Times. Representatives (NY-5). christiAnE AmAnpour dAniEl l. bymAn Anchor, This Week. S enior Fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings; Professor, Security Studies Program of Georgetown University. hAdy Amr Eric cAntor Deputy Assistant Administrator United States House of for the Middle East, U.S. Agency Representatives (VA-7). for International Development. AlAn bAtkin AdAm chEsnoff Vice Chairman, Eton Park President and Chief Operating Capital Management; former Vice Officer, Saban Capital Group, Inc. Chairman, Kissinger Associates, Inc.; Trustee, The Brookings Institution. sAmuEl r. bErger hillAry rodhAm clinton Chair, Albright Stonebridge U. S. Secretary of State. Group; former National Security Advisor. 6 THE SABAN FORUM: A U . S . –ISRAEL DIALOGUE S a b a n F o r u m 2010 American Participants (continued) williAm J. clinton khAlEd ElGindy 42nd President of the United Visiting Fellow, Saban Center for States; Founder, William J. Middle East Policy at Brookings. Clinton Foundation. JAmEs b. cunninGhAm shAi fEldmAn U.S. Ambassador to Israel. D irector of Crown Center for Middle East Studies and Professor of Politics, Brandeis University. AlAn m. dAchs JEffrEy d. fEltmAn President and Chief Executive Assistant Secretary of State for Officer, Fremont Group; Trustee Near Eastern Affairs. and Chairman of the Foreign Policy Studies Program Leadership Committee, The Brookings Institution. JAckson diEhl dAvid fishEr Deputy Editorial Page Editor, The Chairman Emeritus, Capital Washington Post. Group International. robErt J. Einhorn thomAs l. friEdmAn Special Advisor for Foreign Affairs Columnist, The Nonproliferation and Arms New York Times. Control, U.S. Department of State. michael EisnEr frEd GluckmAn Founder, The Tornante Company, S enior Vice President and Chief LLC; former Chairman & CEO, Financial Officer, Saban Capital The Walt Disney Company. Group. U . S . -ISRAEL relations: FACING HARD CHOICES 7 S a b a n F o r u m 2010 American Participants (continued) briAn Greenspun colin kAhl Publisher and Editor, The Las Vegas Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Sun; Chairman, The Greenspun Middle East, U.S. Department of Corporation; Trustee, The Defense. Brookings Institution. dAvid Gregory dAvid kAmEnEtzky Moderator, Meet the Press. Vice President of Corporate Affairs, Mars, Inc. JAnE hArmAn stuArt A. lEvEy United States House of Under Secretary for Terrorism Representatives (CA-36). and Financial Intelligence, U.S. Department of the Treasury. mArtin indyk JosEph i. liEbErmAn Convener of The Saban Forum; United States Senate (CT). Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy at Brookings; former U.S. Ambassador to Israel. wAltEr isaacson nitA lowEy President and CEO, The Aspen United States House of Institute. Representatives (NY-18). bEnjamin r. JAcobs dAvid mAkovsky Managing Member and Founder, Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and The JBG Companies; Trustee, The Director of the Project on the Middle Brookings Institution. East Peace Process, Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 8 THE SABAN FORUM: A U . S . –ISRAEL DIALOGUE S a b a n F o r u m 2010 American Participants (continued) robErt mAllEy brucE riEdEl Middle East and North Africa S enior Fellow, Saban Center for Program Director, International Middle East Policy at Brookings. Crisis Group. suzAnnE mAlonEy chArliE rosE S enior Fellow, Saban Center for Host, The Charlie Rose Show. Middle East Policy at Brookings. John mccAin dEnnis ross United States Senate (AZ). Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for the Central Region, National Security Staff, Executive Office of the President. GEorge mitchEll chEryl sAbAn U.S. Special Envoy for Middle Founder, Self Worth Foundation. East Peace. chArlEs pErEz hAim sAbAn Chairman, Chip and Pepper. Chairman, The Saban Forum; Chairman and Chief Executive Officer,S aban Capital Group; Chairman, International Advisory Board, Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings. kEnnEth m. pollAck kArim sAdjadpour D irector, Saban Center for Middle Associate, Middle East Program, East Policy at Brookings. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. U . S . -ISRAEL relations: FACING