Microsoft Word − 01 Population and elections.docx (X:100.0%, Y:100.0%) Created by Grafikhuset Publi PDF. Population and elections Population and population forecasts Immigrants and their descendants Births Deaths and life expectancy Households, families and children Marriages and divorces Migrations Names Elections Microsoft Word − 01 Population and elections.docx (X:100.0%, Y:100.0%) Created by Grafikhuset Publi PDF. Population and elections Population and population forecasts Population size Figure 1 Since the early 1970s, Denmark has had a population of more than 5 million inhabit- Population ants. The size of the population has seen a slow, but steady increase since 1970, and on 1 January 2017 it was 5.7 million people. However, during the early 1980s, the Million persons 5,8 population fell due to reductions in the number of births. 5,7 5,6 Women are in the majority 5,5 Though more boys than girls are born every year, women comprise slightly more 5,4 than half of the Danish population (50.2 per cent). This is because of higher mortali- 5,3 ty rates among men. There are more men than women in all age groups up to the late 5,2 50s, except for the 41-year-olds, but women take over in all subsequent age groups. 5,1 The age group 100 and older comprises more than six times as many women as men. 5,0 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 17 More births than deaths www.statbank.dk/hisb3 Population developments depend on four components: live births, deaths, immigra- tion, and emigration. The population increase during recent years is the result of two things: positive natural increase (births ÷ deaths) and positive net migration (immi- gration ÷ emigration). Positive net migration means that more people enter Den- mark than leave it. Figure 2 Population trends Thousand persons 110 100 90 80 Births 70 Deaths 60 Immigrants 50 Emigrants 40 30 20 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 www.statbank.dk/hisb3 We are growing older The Danish population is getting older. The average age in Denmark was 41.3 years as of 1 January 2017. For men, this figure was 40.4 years, and for women, it was 42.2 years. When examining 1980 figures, the average age was 4.2 years lower (an overall average age of 36.7 years; 35.5 years for men, 38.0 years for women). This increase in the average age is caused by an increase of 76 per cent in the num- ber of people over the age of 80. The increase is also occasioned by the fact that the large generations from the mid-1940s have now reached their sixties, as well as the fact that the large generations from the mid-1960s are now being classified to an older age group and are replaced by smaller generations. Statistical Yearbook 2017 Microsoft Word − 01 Population and elections.docx (X:100.0%, Y:100.0%) Created by Grafikhuset Publi PDF. Population and elections Figure 3 The Danish population by age. 1 January 2017 Men Women 95+ Never married 90-94 Married / separated 85-89 80-84 Divorced 75-79 Widowed 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 Thousand persons www.statbank.dk/folk1a More Danes are older than 100 years Figure 4 The number of people who are 100 years of age or more is rising. On 1 January 2017 Persons 100 years + a total of 1.143 people (976 women and 167 men) were 100 years or more. In 1980, only 158 people (40 men and 118 women) were 100 years of age or older. That is a Thousands Men Women 4,5 little more than seven times as much in a period of 30 years. 4,0 3,5 The demographic dependency ratio 3,0 The demographic dependency ratio is calculated on the basis of the population dis- 2,5 tribution by age. Dependency ratio shows the relationship between the number of 2,0 1,5 persons outside the economically active population and the number of persons 1,0 available to support them – i.e. the population of working age. 0,5 0,0 The demographic dependency ratio will increase in the years to come If the economically active (working) population is calculated as those within the 20- 1987 1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 www.statbank.dk/bef5 and frdk111 59 age group, the dependency ratio in 2017 is 0.91. This implies that for every 100 economically active individuals, 91 persons need support. On the basis of the projections on population development in 2016, the demographic dependency ratio will increase to 0.92 in 2020 and reach 1.05 in 2030. In the 1970s, the dependency ratio was higher, 0.94 on average. In the late 1990s, it was as low as 0.76. This implies that more and more people will need support in the years to come, a development which is linked to the fact that the number of elderly people will con- tinue to increase in future. Major difference in the population growth among municipalities In the coming years, the Danish municipalities will experience different trends in population growth. The municipalities of Eastern Jutland, Eastern Zealand, Odense and Aalborg Municipality will experience the largest increase in the number of in- Statistical Yearbook 2017 Microsoft Word − 01 Population and elections.docx (X:100.0%, Y:100.0%) Created by Grafikhuset Publi PDF. Population and elections habitants, while the municipalities of Western and Southern Jutland and Western Zealand and Lolland-Falster will see a decrease in the number of inhabitants. The population projections are based on a calculation of births, deaths, migrations among the municipalities and a number of assumptions for trends in the future. Consequently, the population projections should be interpreted with caution. Figure 5 Population projections for municipalities. Development from 2016 to 2036 Population growth 10 per cent and more 5 - 9,9 per cent 0 - 4,9 per cent -4,9 - -0,1 per cent -5 per cent and under © Geodatastyrelsen www.statbank.dk/frkm116 Immigrants and their descendants In January 2017, immigrants and descendants comprised 12.9 per cent of the total Danish population (741.572 persons) – about 9.9 per cent are immigrants and 3.0 per cent are descendants. 52 per cent of all immigrants and descendants originate from a European country. In total, representing about 200 different countries. The largest group originates from Turkey, namely 62.707 persons or 8.5 per cent. of all immigrants and their descendants. Poland and Syria are number two and three on the list, with respective- ly 44,926 and 37,880 immigrants and descendants in Denmark. Statistical Yearbook 2017 Microsoft Word − 01 Population and elections.docx (X:100.0%, Y:100.0%) Created by Grafikhuset Publi PDF. Population and elections Figure 6 Immigrants and descendants after country of origin. 1 January 2017 Thousand persons 65 60 Descendants 55 50 Immigrants 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Iran Iraq Syria Turkey Poland Norway Sweden Somalia Pakistan Lebanon Romania Germany Bosnia Yugoslavia Afghanistan Herzegovina www.statbank.dk/folk1 Births How many children are born each year? During recent years, the number of live births has been about 60,483, a year, corre- sponding to an average of almost 166 a day. In 2016 the number increased to 61,614. The number of births during a given period depends on the number of women of childbearing age and on the number of children born to each woman. In 2016, the total fertility rate , i.e. the average number of live births per woman, was 1.79 in Denmark. A fertility rate at 2.081 is needed for the population to reproduce itself given the actual level of mortality. Through the 1950s and most of the 1960s, the fertility rate was above this level. From the late 1960s, the fertility rate fell until it reached bottom in 1983 at 1.38. Since then the fertility rate has risen. Figure 7 Fertility rates in European countries. 2014 2,2 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 Italy Malta Spain Latvia Serbia Ireland Poland France Austria Cyprus Croatia Iceland Greece Finland Estonia Norway Sweden Belgium Bulgaria Portugal Hungary Slovakia Slovenia Romania Denmark Lithuania Germany Macedonia Switzerland Montenegro Netherlands Luxembourg Czech Republic Czech United Kingdom United Source: Eurostat Statistical Yearbook 2017 Microsoft Word − 01 Population and elections.docx (X:100.0%, Y:100.0%) Created by Grafikhuset Publi PDF. Population and elections Older mothers Over the years, women have become increasingly mature before becoming mothers. In 2016, the average age of women giving birth for the first time was 30.8 years. This development has been especially pronounced since 1970, when the total average age of women giving birth was 26.7 years. The average for first-time mothers was 29.1 years in 2016. One of the highest fertility rates in EU Denmark has one of the highest fertility rates in the EU. In 2014, France and Ireland had the highest fertility rate (2.0) while Portugal had the lowest (1.2). In Denmark it was 1.7. Deaths and life expectancy Excess mortality for men compared to women Men have a higher risk of dying in all age groups except a few ages in childhood where very few persons die.