SOLUTIONS TO INTEGRATE HIGH SHARES OF VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY A report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group (ETWG) JUNE 2019 © IRENA 2019 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given to IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. ISBN: 978-92-9260-135-5 Citation: IRENA (2019), Solutions to integrate high shares of variable renewable energy (Report to the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group (ETWG)), International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org Acknowledgements Valuable external review was provided from G20 economies as part of the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group, including the Governments of Japan and the Republic of Germany. The report was prepared by Dolf Gielen, Asami Miketa, Emanuele Taibi, Francisco Boshell, Raul Miranda and Sean Ratka at IRENA. 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CONTENTS Figures ...............................................................................................................................................................4 1. Background ...................................................................................................................................................5 » IRENA’s ongoing work with the G20 ...........................................................................................................5 » The energy transition........................................................................................................................................6 2. Power-system flexibility: Learning from front runners ..........................................................................8 » Experience in Italy .............................................................................................................................................9 » Experience in China ..........................................................................................................................................10 » Experience in Germany ....................................................................................................................................12 » IRENA’s Knowledge Framework ....................................................................................................................13 3. The next stage: Unlocking further flexibility through innovation.........................................................14 » Three innovation trends ...................................................................................................................................15 » Four dimensions of innovation ......................................................................................................................16 » Innovation for a cost-effective transition ...................................................................................................17 4. Renewable electrification: Driving the transition of energy services ..................................................19 » Unlocking synergies between electrification and renewables .............................................................19 » Challenges ahead ...............................................................................................................................................20 » Implications for network investment ...........................................................................................................21 » Renewable hydrogen ........................................................................................................................................22 5. Way forward: Eight-step policy plan ........................................................................................................23 References ........................................................................................................................................................26 3 FIGURES Figure 1: Annual energy-related CO2 emissions in the reference case and reductions in the ........ REmap case, with contribution by sector, 2010–2050 ..............................................................6 Figure 2: Electricity consumption by sector, electricity generation mix and power generation installed capacity (GW) by fuel, REmap Case, 2016–2050 .....................................................7 Figure 3: Power system flexibility enablers in the energy sector ............................................................8 Figure 4: Energy flow dominant-paths in Italy .............................................................................................9 Figure 5: Variable renewable generation and energy curtailment in Italy ........................................... 10 Figure 6: Wind curtailment in North-eastern Chinese provinces in the first quarters of 2017 and 2018 ................................................................................................................ 10 Figure 7: Investment alert platform for wind farms in 2018 ......................................................................11 Figure 8: Flexibility in current and future power systems ........................................................................ 14 Figure 9: Three innovation trends combining to increase flexibility ..................................................... 15 Figure 10: Four dimensions of innovation ..................................................................................................... 16 Figure 11: Flexibility solutions .............................................................................................................................18 Figure 12: Electrification of end-use sectors ..................................................................................................21 Figure 13: Cost of producing hydrogen with electricity ........................................................................... 22 4 1. BACKGROUND IRENA’s ongoing work with the G20 Over the past five years, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has been committed to supporting the work of the G20 by providing guidance on how to effectively, and substantially, increase the share of renewables in electricity systems to accelerate the ongoing energy transition. Most recently, the 2019 Japanese G20 presidency requested that IRENA draft a report summarising the current state and outlook of solutions to integrate high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) – namely solar PV and wind power – in electricity systems. IRENA has engaged with the G20 on the subject of the energy transition since 2015 when, during the Turkish presidency, IRENA was selected as the central co-ordinator of the G20 Toolkit for Renewable Energy Deployment, in co-operation with other international organisations. At the 2016 meeting in Beijing, presided over by the Chinese G20 presidency, energy ministers reviewed the progress made since the implementation of the Toolkit and adopted the G20 Voluntary Action Plan on Renewable Energy with the aim of substantially increasing the share of renewable energy by 2030. During the German presidency in 2017, IRENA was requested to analyse options for decarbonising the energy sector to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, and to explore related investment implications. The Climate and Energy Action Plan for Growth attached to the 2017 G20 Leaders’ Declaration also called upon IRENA to support the G20’s efforts by providing a regular update on the energy sector’s global transition and further investment needs. The 2018 Argentinian presidency highlighted the commitment of the G20 to working towards lower