Trinidad & Tobago January 2019 Prepared for the EU Delegation to Trinidad and Tobago Authors of the document Position Name Email address Key Expert 2 Judi Clarke [email protected] Team Leader George de Berdt Romilly [email protected] Senior Non-Key Expert Jon McCue [email protected] Senior Non-Key Expert Shane Pinder [email protected] Senior Non-Key Expert Cherie Pounder [email protected] Senior Non-Key Expert Donovan Campbell [email protected] Junior Non-Key Expert Nicholas Fields [email protected] Junior Non-Key Expert Katrina Khan [email protected] Members of TWGs & TAC Various The opinions expressed in this document represent the views of the authors, which are not necessarily shared by the EU Delegation to Trinidad and Tobago, The Environmental Policy and Planning Division (EPPD), including the Multilateral Environmental Agreements Unit (MEAU) of the Ministry of Planning and Development (MPD), the Tobago House of Assembly (THA) or other stakeholders. Particip GmbH Merzhauser Str. 183 D-79100 Freiburg Germany Tel: +49 (0) 761-79074-0 Fax: +49 (0) 761-79074-90 [email protected] www.particip.de Page ii Contents Executive summary .................................................................................................................. 1 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Project background and Objectives ............................................................................. 9 2 Climate and Sea Level Rise .......................................................................................... 10 2.1 Recent Past and Present Climate Trends1 ................................................................ 10 2.2 GCM and RCM projections of future climate, trends and temporal changes .............. 18 Overview of Modelling Outputs and Sources ............................................................................................ 18 3 Sector vulnerability, risks, impacts and adaptation.................................................... 31 3.1 Coastal Resources .................................................................................................... 31 Context and socio-economic importance.................................................................................................. 31 Current and projected impacts ................................................................................................................. 35 Risks and vulnerability .............................................................................................................................. 42 Recommended adaptation measures ....................................................................................................... 62 3.2 Agriculture and Food Security ................................................................................... 68 Context and socio-economic importance.................................................................................................. 68 Current and projected impacts ................................................................................................................. 69 Recommended adaptation measures ....................................................................................................... 91 3.3 Water Resources ...................................................................................................... 94 Context and socio-economic importance.................................................................................................. 94 Current and projected impacts ............................................................................................................... 104 Risks and vulnerability ............................................................................................................................ 114 Recommended adaptation measures ..................................................................................................... 118 3.4 Human Health ......................................................................................................... 135 Context and socio-economic importance................................................................................................ 135 Current and projected Impacts ............................................................................................................... 138 Risks and vulnerability ............................................................................................................................ 146 Recommended Adaptation Measures .................................................................................................... 150 3.5 Biodiversity ............................................................................................................. 150 Socio-economic importance ................................................................................................................... 150 Current and projected impacts ............................................................................................................... 156 Adaptive capacity ................................................................................................................................... 156 Risks and vulnerability ............................................................................................................................ 157 Recommended Adaptation measures .................................................................................................... 158 3.6 Infrastructure and Human Settlements .................................................................... 160 Socio-economic Importance ................................................................................................................... 160 Vulnerability and Risk ............................................................................................................................. 183 Recommended Adaptation measures .................................................................................................... 183 3.7 Finance sector ........................................................................................................ 189 Socio-economic context ......................................................................................................................... 189 Current and Projected Impacts ............................................................................................................... 191 Risks and Vulnerability ........................................................................................................................... 193 Recommended Adaptation Measures .................................................................................................... 198 References ............................................................................................................................ 209 Page i List of tables Table 1: SLR projections by mid-century and end-of-century timelines for the four RCP scenarios ........................................................................................................................... 21 Table 2: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature for Trinidad and Tobago. ....... 24 Table 3: GCM and RCM projected changes in Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 scenario ..... 24 Table 4: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation for Trinidad and Tobago ........ 25 Table 5: GCM and RCM projected changes in Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 scenario ..... 25 Table 6: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation (%) for Trinidad and Tobago . 26 Table 7: GCM and RCM projected changes in Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 scenario ..... 26 Table 8: Observed and GCM projected changes in sea surface temperature for Trinidad and Tobago ............................................................................................................... 27 Table 9: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature extremes for Trinidad and Tobago ........................................................................................................................... 28 Table 10: Observed and GCM projected changes in rainfall extremes for Trinidad and Tobago ............................................................................................................... 29 Table 11 Value of Infrastructure by Coastal Zone and as Percent of Total Value (CH2M 2016) 34 Table 12 Chronology of Hurricane events (Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service) ........ 41 Table 13 Showing the Ranking System for Hazards used (VAACA, 2015) ................................ 42 Table 14 Hazard Ranking for Selected Hazards affecting Trinidad & Tobago ........................... 42 Table 15 Coastal Ecosystems Services and their Locations in Trinidad & Tobago (CH2M 2016) .................................................................................................................. 46 Table 16 Generic Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Ecosystems (U.S. EPA 2009) .......... 49 Table 17 Direct and Indirect Sources of Negative Effects to Coastal Ecosystems ..................... 57 Table 18 Renewable Water Resource for Trinidad and Tobago (AQUASTAT 2015) ................. 98 Table 19 2011 FAO estimation of Water Withdrawal by Sector ................................................ 100 Table 20 Trinidad and Tobago Population Data ......................................................................