Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 1.1 Objective and Structure ............................................................................................................................................................ 16 1.2 A Typology of Drought Conditions and Impacts..................................................................................................... 16 1.3 Exposure to Meteorological and Hydrological Drought.................................................................................... 17 1.4 Implications ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 2 Vulnerability and Capacity ................................................................................................................................................................... 21 2.1 Structural Factors ........................................................................................................................................................................... 21 2.1.1 Economy .............................................................................................................................................................................. 21 2.1.2 Finance .................................................................................................................................................................................. 22 2.1.3 Water Management ...................................................................................................................................................... 22 2.1.4 Agriculture .......................................................................................................................................................................... 23 2.1.5 Poverty ................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 2.1.6 Environment ..................................................................................................................................................................... 25 2.2 Disaster Management in the 1990s .................................................................................................................................. 26 2.2.1 Plans ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 26 2.2.2 Institutions.......................................................................................................................................................................... 26 2.2.3 Meteorological and Hydrological Early Warning Systems................................................................. 28 2.2.4 Agrometeorological Network ............................................................................................................................... 31 2.2.5 Food Security Early Warning Systems.............................................................................................................. 31 2.3 Population at Risk ......................................................................................................................................................................... 32 3 The Drought of 2000-01 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 34 3.1 Early Warning Failures ................................................................................................................................................................ 34 3.2 Meteorological Drought ........................................................................................................................................................... 34 3.3 Hydrological Drought ................................................................................................................................................................. 35 3.4 Agricultural Drought ................................................................................................................................................................... 38 3.5 Damage to Other Sectors ......................................................................................................................................................... 42 3.6 Damage to the Environment ................................................................................................................................................. 42 3.7 Socioeconomic Drought .......................................................................................................................................................... 42 3.8 Providing Relief and Restoring Livelihoods ................................................................................................................ 44 3.9 Aftermath ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 46 4 Conclusion and Strategic Approach ............................................................................................................................................. 48 4.1 Remaining Vulnerabilities ........................................................................................................................................................ 48 4.1.1 Exposure............................................................................................................................................................................... 48 4 4.1.2 Structural Factors ........................................................................................................................................................... 48 4.1.3 Preparedness and Capacity ..................................................................................................................................... 50 4.2 Towards a Drought Management and Mitigation Strategy............................................................................... 51 4.2.1 Approach ............................................................................................................................................................................. 51 4.2.2 Mainstreaming into National Development Strategies....................................................................... 53 4.2.3 Hydrometeorological Monitoring, Forecasting, and Early Warning Systems ...................... 58 4.2.4 Coordinated Emergency Preparedness, Response and Recovery ................................................ 59 4.2.5 Climate Change ............................................................................................................................................................... 60 4.2.6 Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Measures ................................................................................................ 60 4.3 Preliminary, Broad Sub-Regional and Country Strategies for the Caucasus ......................................... 63 4.4 Preliminary, Broad Sub-Regional and Country Strategies for Central Asia ........................................... 64 4.5 World Bank Strategy for Support to Drought Management and Mitigation in Central Asia and the Caucasus.................................................................................................... 67 4.6 Involving the Stakeholders ..................................................................................................................................................... 68 Annex 1: Additional Figures and Tables.............................................................................................................................................. 75 Annex 2: Climate Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus ............................................................................................... 90 Annex 3: Triggering Mechanisms and Response to Drought .............................................................................................. 92 Annex 4: Drought Impacts in 2000 and 2001 ............................................................................................................................... 93 Annex 5: Developing Drought Mitigation Strategies ................................................................................................................ 95 Annex 6: Related Projects .......................................................................................................................................................................... 102 Annex 7: Drought Mitigation Measures for Farmers and Herders ................................................................................ 105