1 June 2011, No94 Board of Trustees Chair CrisisWatch: Thomas Pickering summarises briefly developments during the previous month in some 70 situations of current or potential conflict, listed alphabetically by region, providing references and links to more detailed information sources President and CEO (all references mentioned are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin); Louise Arbour assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly deteriorated, Executive Committee significantly improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged; Morton Abramowitz alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there is a particular risk of new or significantly esca- Cheryl Carolus lated conflict, or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in some instances there may in fact be Maria Livanos Cattaui both); and Yoichi Funabashi summarises Crisis Group’s reports and briefing papers that have been published in the last month. Frank Giustra Ghassan Salamé CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Group’s Brussels Research Unit, drawing on multiple sources including the George Soros resources of our some 130 staff members across five continents, who already report on some 60 of the situations Pär Stenbäck listed here. Comments and suggestions can be sent to [email protected]. Adnan Abu-Odeh Kenneth Adelman To search past issues of CrisisWatch, visit www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch Kofi Annan Nahum Barnea Samuel Berger May 2011 Trends Emma Bonino Wesley Clark Deteriorated Situations Improved Situations Sheila Coronel Jan Egeland Albania (p.7) Sudan (South) (p.3) Colombia (p.9) Uffe Ellemann-Jensen Guatemala (p.9) Syria (p.10) Honduras (p.10) Gareth Evans Pakistan (p.6) Yemen (p.11) Serbia (p.8) Mark Eyskens Sudan (Northern) (p.3) Joshua Fink Joschka Fischer Jean-Marie Guéhenno Unchanged Situations Carla Hills Lena Hjelm-Wallén Afghanistan (p.5), Algeria (p.11), Armenia (p.8), Azerbaijan (p.8), Bahrain (p.10), Bangladesh (p.6), Swanee Hunt Basque Country (Spain) (p.9), Belarus (p.8), Bolivia (p.9), Bosnia (p.7), Burkina Faso (p.4), Burundi Mo Ibrahim (p.2), Cameroon (p.2), Central African Republic (p.2), Chad (p.2), Côte d’Ivoire (p.4), Cyprus (p.9), Igor Ivanov Democratic Republic of Congo (p.2), Djibouti (p.2), Ecuador (p.9), Egypt (p.11), Eritrea (p.2), Ethio- Asma Jahangir pia (p.3), Georgia (p.8), Guinea (p.4), Guinea-Bissau (p.4), Haiti (p.9), India (non-Kashmir) (p.6), Wim Kok Indonesia (p.6), Iran (p.11), Iraq (p.11), Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories (p.10), Jordan (p.11), Ricardo Lagos Kashmir (p.6), Kazakhstan (p.5), Kenya (p.3), Kosovo (p.7), Kyrgyzstan (p.5), Lebanon (p.10), Joanne Leedom-Ackerman Liberia (p.4), Libya (p.12), Macedonia (p.8), Madagascar (p.4), Mauritania (p.12), Mexico (p.10), Lord (Mark) Malloch-Brown Morocco (p.12), Myanmar/Burma (p.7), Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) (p.8), Nepal (p.6), Niger Lalit Mansingh (p.4), Nigeria (p.4), North Caucasus (Russia) (p.8), Northern Ireland (p.9), North Korea (p.5), Oman Jessica Tuchman Mathews (p.11), Philippines (p.7), Rwanda (p.2), Saudi Arabia (p.11), Somalia (p.3), Somaliland (p.3), Sri Lanka Benjamin Mkapa (p.6), Tajikistan (p.5), Thailand (p.7), Timor-Leste (p.7), Tunisia (p.12), Turkey (p.9), Turkmenistan Moisés Naím (p.5), Uganda (p.3), Uzbekistan (p.5), Venezuela (p.10), Zimbabwe (p.4) Ayo Obe Paul Reynolds Güler Sabancı Javier Solana Lawrence Summers June 2011 Watchlist Chairmen Emeritus Conflict Risk Alerts Conflict Resolution Martti Ahtisaari George J. Mitchell Sudan (Northern) Opportunities Yemen President Emeritus Gareth Evans Crisis Group Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation, with some 130 staff members on five continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. Crisis Group’s approach is grounded in field research. Teams of political analysts are located within or close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of violent conflict. Based on information and assessments from the field, Crisis Group produces regular analytical reports containing practical recommendations targeted at key international decision-takers, and backed up with high-level advo- cacy. Crisis Group is co-chaired by former European Commissioner for External Relations Lord (Christopher) Patten and former U.S. Ambassador and Vice Chairman of Hills & Company Thomas R. Pickering, and its President and Chief Executive is former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour. arrest warrants against Libyan officials. Spokesman warned fighting in Libya is increasing instability across Sahel. UN report 13 May said security situation improved since end-2010 with- drawal of international peacekeepers, but warned of continued humanitarian, displacement crises. “Chad’s Deby wins re-election in boycotted poll”, Reuters, 10 CENTRAL AFRICA May 2011. Burundi President Nkurunziza 18 May pledged to end ongoing For latest report, see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°78, Chad’s rural violence by end-June, 2 May promised inquiry into 2010 North West: The Next High-risk Area?, 17 Feb. 2011. electoral violence and killings in recent months. UN human Democratic Republic of Congo Coalition of 26 opposi- rights representative 20 May expressed concern over alleged tion parties 6 May said electoral calendar, announced end-Apr, extrajudicial killings March-Apr of former rebel National Libera- “unconstitutional and unrealistic”. Elections currently set for 28 tion Forces. At least 9, including 3 soldiers, killed 26, 28, 30 May Nov, despite constitutional requirement that elections be held 90 by unidentified men in Bujumbura rural district. In meeting with days before end of current mandate, therefore by 6 Sept; oppo- UN HCHR 3 May, officials promised truth and reconciliation com- sition also said revision of voter registration lists unlikely to be mission to begin work by Jan 2012, will investigate events since complete by 30 June deadline. Month saw increased violence in 1972. Court 16 May acquitted journalist charged with treason east, including 8 May failed attack on Education Minister Léon- for criticising security services. Security forces 12 May detained ard Mashako Mamba. Reports 24 May said Mai Mai commander Gabriel Nduwayo, chief suspect in 2009 killing of deputy chair of Luc Yabili offered surrender in return for MONUSCO protection; corruption watchdog OLUCOME. Splits emerged in opposition local FARDC commander refused offer. FARDC forces 1 May UPD 24 May, as party president dismissed secretary general, killed Union of Congolese Patriots (UCP) member General executive secretary, suspended consultative council in apparent Floribert Kisembo; govt claimed Kisembo planned rebellion, attempt to prevent leadership challenge. UCP alleged political assassination. Independent U.S. study “Burundi president promises justice for political violence”, AFP, found 400,000 rapes committed in 12-month period in 2006-7. 18 May 2011. “Growing insecurity raises concerns in the DRC”, VOA, 31 May For latest report, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°169, From 2011. Electoral Boycott to Political Impasse, 7 Feb. 2011. Crisis Group Africa Report N°175, Congo: Cameroon Opposition Social Democratic Front 13 May said it The Electoral Dilemma, 5 May 2011. Faced will disrupt planned Oct presidential poll, citing govt repression, with the dilemma of respecting the constitutional deadline and electoral tampering; 18 May promised to support any popular organising botched elections, or ignoring that deadline and political unrest against ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic sliding into a situation of unconstitutional power, the Congolese Movement (CPDM). Former CPDM member Esther Dang 17 authorities have chosen the first option. May announced candidacy for presidency, second ex-ally of incumbent President Biya to do so. Rwanda International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) 17 “Cameroon opposition vows to disrupt presidential vote later May handed down custodial sentences to 4 former senior mili- this year”, AP, 13 May 2011. tary commanders, including ex-army chief Augustin Bizimungu, Central African Republic Following rigged Jan elections, for their involvement in 1994 genocide. Congolese armed head of EU delegation 6 May met President Bozizé, requested forces 26 May said Bernard Munyagishari, militia leader during more formal political dialogue, applying article 8 of Cotonou genocide, arrested in North Kivu. UK police 12 May warned agreement. Security in NE precarious. Unidentified armed men 2 Rwandan dissidents living in London of “imminent threat” 3 May ambushed NGO vehicle on road to Ndiffa. Suspected of assassination by Rwandan govt; Rwanda said allegations Sudanese, Chadian bandits attacked NGO compounds in Birao “without foundation”. Opposition Rwandan National Congress 22 May, Ndélé 24 May. Relations between govt and UFDR same day called for resignation of President Kagame, alleging former rebels strained over lack of govt support in fighting rebel repression, extrajudicial killings. Convention of Patriots for Justice and Peace (CPJP), replace- “Rwanda genocide: ex-army chief given 30-year sentence”, ment of UFDR minister. CPJP set to meet mediation team end- BBC, 17 May 2011. month. Presidents Bozizé, Deby (Chad) and Bashir (Sudan) 23 May agreed joint border patrols. LRA 3 May attacked SE village HORN OF AFRICA Balifondo; several villagers killed, others abducted; 7 May fired Djibouti Sudanese President