The preparation of this document was coordinated by José Luis Machinea, Executive Secretary of ECLAC, in collaboration with Juan Martín, Coordinator of the Office of the Executive Secretary, and Mario Cimoli, coordinator of the area of innovation and information and communication technologies of the Division of Production, Productivity and Management. The following persons, in addition to the coordinators, were in charge of drafting the different chapters: Robert Devlin, René Hernandez, Luis Felipe Jiménez, Graciela Moguillansky and Johan Mulder, with the collaboration of Miguel Torres and Cecilia Vera. Ernesto Ottone, Deputy Executive Secretary of ECLAC, provided comments and contributions. Various divisions of ECLAC participated in the preparation of the document, in particular the Division of Production, Productivity and Management, the Division of International Trade and Integration and the Division of Economic Development. Martine Dirven, Osvaldo Rosales and Osvaldo Kacef, Officer-in-Charge and Directors of these divisions, respectively, provided valuable input and, in some cases, participated in the drafting of the different chapters. The subregional headquarters and national offices also collaborated. Contributions and comments were provided by the following ECLAC staff members: Olga Lucía Acosta, Vianka Aliaga, Mariano Álvarez, Renato Baumann, Omar Bello, Ricardo Bielschowsky, Binesware Bolaky, Inés Bustillo, Alvaro Calderón, Carolina Cavada, Jaime Contador, Martha Cordero, Agustín Cornejo, Nelson Correa, Claudia de Camino, José Durán Lima, Alfonso Finot, Rodrigo Heresi, Daniel Heymann, Martin Hilbert, Raúl Holtz, Juan Pablo Jiménez, Valeria Jordán, Bernardo Kosacoff, Mikio Kuwayama, Salvador Marconi, Jorge Mario Martínez, Jorge Máttar, Michael Mortimore, Alejandra Ovalle, Ramón Padilla, Wilson Peres, Esteban Pérez, Neil Pierre, Annalisa Primi, Adrián Ramos, Carlos Razo, Mónica Rodrígues, Indira Romero, Sebastián Rovira, Claudia Schatan, Marcia Tavares, Christian Velásquez Donaldson and Jürgen Weller. The following consultants contributed to the different chapters: Facundo Albornoz, Thomas Andersson, Guillermo Anlló, Gustavo Baruj, Vladimir Benacek, Roberto Bisang, Ilán Bizberg, Antonio Bonet, María Alejandra Botiva León, Mercedes Campi, Verónica Cesa, Hugo Chaves Arce, Terry Cutler, Pedro da Moita Veiga, Carl J. Dahlman, Piero Formica, Hernando José Gómez Restrepo, Ana María Guerra Forero, Graciela Gutman, Nigel Haworth, Annette Hester, Jorge Katz, Heikki Kotilainen, Scree Kumar, Pablo Lavarello, Andrés López, Virginia Mori, Shankaran Nambiar, David O’Donavan, Carlos Pacheco Américo, Rodrigo Paillacar, Juan José Palacios L., Carlota Pérez, Gabriel Porcile, Daniela Ramos, Joseph Ramos, Sandra P. Rios, Sharon Saddique, José Segura Garita, Ricardo Sennes, Ramjee Singh, Basel Springer, Iván Torre, Lia Valls Pereira, John Wilkinson, Hong Yoo Soo and Soledad Zignago. Explanatory notes The following symbols are used in tables in this publication: Three dots (…) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. A minus sign (-) indicates a deficit or decrease, unless otherwise indicated. A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. Use of a hyphen (-) between years (e.g., 2001-2003) indicates reference to the complete period considered, including the beginning and end years. The term “dollars” refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise specified. Figures and percentages in tables may not necessarily add up to the corresponding totals due to rounding. Distr. General • LC/G.2367(SES.32/3) • May 2008 • Original: Spanish • © United Nations • Printed in Santiago, Chile CONTENTS Contents Introducción .......................................................................................13 Chapter I Latin America and the Caribbean in the world: trends and opportunities ...............................................................................17 A. A long-term view.......................................................................19 B. Economic growth and productive transformation .....................26 1. The diversification of the production structure and technical change .......................................................26 2. Economic growth policies: alternatives and some general criteria.......................................................29 C. Today’s global economy ...........................................................35 1. The global situation: present risks and long-term factors..............................................................................36 2. Changes in the global production structure.....................38 3. Changes in global demand ..............................................43 D. A new opportunity for Latin America and the Caribbean .........47 1. The regional situation......................................................49 2. The options for the region’s countries.............................51 Chapter II Economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: structural change and export development.........................................59 A. Characteristics of the region’s economic growth........................60 1. Low and volatile growth rates ............................................60 2. A lacklustre performance in terms of investment and the financial system......................................................63 3. The burden of external constraints .....................................66 5 STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH – 20 YEARS LATER. OLD PROBLEMS, NEW OPPORTUNITIES ECLAC B. Production structure, productivity and growth........................................................................ 70 1. Evolution of the production structure and productivity................................................ 73 2. The revitalization of the production structure and its effects on growth ...................... 77 C. Exports and growth................................................................................................................. 83 1. Global growth ............................................................................................................... 84 2. Diversification .............................................................................................................. 87 3. The technological content of exports............................................................................ 93 D. Other technological externalities associated with integration in the global economy ............ 97 1. Trade-related externalities............................................................................................ 98 2. Externalities related to foreign direct investment ....................................................... 101 Chapter III Innovation and economic development ....................................................................................... 107 A. The scientific and technological capacity of the region’s countries ..................................... 109 B. The innovation dynamism of Latin American businesses .................................................... 112 1. Innovation and company performance........................................................................ 113 2. Some factors affecting innovations............................................................................. 117 3. Innovation dynamism of companies: efforts and opportunities.................................. 122 C. Learning, quality and the integration of Latin America and the Caribbean into the world economy......................................................................................................... 123 1. Quality and technological intensity of exports ........................................................... 123 2. Learning and quality in the natural-resources sector: agriculture............................... 130 3. Opportunities for differentiation and quality upgrading............................................. 138 Chapter IV Techno-economic paradigms: ICTs and biotechnology............................................................. 141 A. The information and communication technologies (ICTs) paradigm ................................... 144 1. Origin and development.............................................................................................. 144 2. Development of the information society and new opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean ............................................................................... 146 B. Scope and opportunities of the biotechnology paradigm...................................................... 154 1. Development and principal trends of production reorganization................................ 156 2. Efforts and opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean .................................. 158 Chapter V Opportunities associated with the restructuring of production sectors ................................... 161 A. Learning patterns in the manufacturing industry .................................................................. 163 1. Industrialization and international integration............................................................ 164 2. Export manufacturing industry ................................................................................... 171 B. The agrifood complex ........................................................................................................... 186 1. Innovation and learning in the agrifood complex ....................................................... 187 2. Spread