THE PORT AUTHORITY OF NEW YORK & NEW JERSEY AIRTRAIN LGA LGA GROUND ACCESS MODE CHOICE MODEL AND AIRTRAIN RIDERSHIP FORECAST 2025-2045 APPENDICES OCTOBER 2018 Appendix A. Airport Surveys Used in Modeling Process ........................................................ A-1 A.1 DESCRIPTION OF AIRPORT SURVEYS ......................................... A-1 A.2 2017 SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRES ................................................... A-6 TABLE OF Appendix B. LGA Passenger and Employee Survey Results ......................................................... B-1 CONTENTS B.1 GROUND ACCESS SURVEY RESULTS .......................................... B-1 B.2 PASSENGER PREFERENCE SURVEY RESULTS ........................ B-33 B.3 EMPLOYEE SURVEY RESULTS .................................................... B-42 Appendix C. Analysis of Congestion Growth and Highway Time Reliability for Trips To and From LGA ..................................................... C-1 C.1 METHODOLOGY FOR INCORPORATION OF TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY AND ACCOUNTING FOR CONGESTION GROWTH IN 2025 AND 2045 ............................................................................. C-1 C.2 ANALYSIS AND CORRECTION OF THE MEAN TRAVEL TIMES OBTAINED FROM BPM .................................................................... C-2 C.3 CONGESTION GROWTH IN THE STUDY AREA AS PREDICTED BY BPM ............................................................................................. C-3 C.4 EVIDENCE FOR HIGHWAY TRAVEL TIME UNRELIABILITY FOR TRIPS TO AND FROM LGA .............................................................. C-4 C.5 METHOD FOR CALCULATION OF AUTO TRAVEL TIMES FOR LGA GROUND ACCESS MODEL ..................................................... C-4 C.6 STATISTICAL FUNCTIONS FOR TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY ...... C-5 C.7 EXAMPLES OF TRAVEL TIME PREDICTIONS FOR KEY O&D PAIRS FOR TRIPS TO AND FROM LGA .......................................... C-7 C.8 IMPLICATIONS OF TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY ON LGA AIRTRAIN RIDERSHIP FORECAST ................................................. C-7 Appendix D. Survey of VOT and Mode Convenience Factors in Applied Models for Airport Ground Access Mode Choice ..................... D-1 D.1 VOT IN APPLIED MODELS FOR AIRPORT GROUND ACCESS MODE CHOICE .................................................................................. D-1 D.2 MODE CONVENIENCE FACTORS IN APPLIED MODELS FOR AIRPORT GROUND ACCESS MODE CHOICE ................................ D-4 LGA Airport Access Improvement Project i Appendix E. Comparative Analysis of Rail Mode Share for Different Airports ................................... E-1 E.1 RAIL SHARE IN AIRPORT GROUND ACCESS MODE CHOICE ..... E-1 E.2 RAIL SYSTEM CHARACTERSITICS ................................................ E-4 E.3 BIBLIOGRAPHY AND SOURCES OF INFORMATION .................... E-5 Appendix F. Details of Switching Logit Model Formulation .................................................. F-1 F.1 MAIN FEATURES OF THE SWITCHING MODEL .............................. F-1 F.2 SWITCHING MODEL DERIVED FROM THE INCREMENTAL MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODEL (MNL) .............................................. F-2 F.3 APPLICATION RULES FOR SWITCHING MODEL ........................... F-4 Appendix G. Travel Times Used For Ridership Model Inputs .......................................................... G-1 G.1 MODELED TRANSIT TRAVEL TIMES TO AND FROM LGA FROM SELECTED LOCATIONS IN 2025 AND 2045 ................................... G-1 LGA Airport Access Improvement Project ii TABLES Table A-1 Participation in LGA Air Passenger Surveys .......................... A-2 Table A-2 Passenger Preference Survey Participation Rules ................. A-2 Table A-3 Target Controls for Survey Expansion.................................... A-4 Table A-4 Composition of the Database for LGA Air Passengers from 2017 Ground Access Survey and2014-2016 CSS (unweighted individual records) .............................................. A-5 Table A-5 Composition of the Database for LGA Air Passengers from 2017 Ground Access Survey and2014–2016 CSS (weighted daily O&D trip summary) ........................................ A-5 Table B-1 Distribution of Air Passengers by Income (Unweighted Individual Records) ................................................................ B-2 Table B-2 Distribution of Air Passengers by Income (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Summary) ............................................................... B-3 Table B-3 Distribution of Air Passengers by Travel Party Size (Unweighted Individual Records) ........................................... B-3 Table B-4 Distribution of Air Passengers by Travel Party Size (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Summary) .................................... B-4 Table B-5 Distribution of Air Passengers by Trip Origin/Destination (Unweighted Individual Records) ........................................... B-6 Table B-6 Distribution of Air Passengers by Trip Origin/Destination (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Summary) .................................... B-6 Table B-7 Distribution of Air Passengers by Ground Access Mode (Unweighted Individual Records) ........................................... B-7 Table B-8 Distribution of Air Passengers by Ground Access Mode (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Summary) .................................... B-7 Table B-9 Distribution of Air Passengers by Age (Unweighted Individual Records) ................................................................ B-8 Table B-10 Distribution of Air Passengers by Age (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Summary for a Single Respondent per Travel Party) ..................................................................................... B-8 Table B-11 Distribution of Air Passengers by Income (Unweighted Individual Records) .............................................................. B-10 Table B-12 Distribution of Air Passengers by Income (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Summary) ............................................................. B-11 Table B-13 Distribution of Air Passengers by Party Size (Unweighted Individual Records) .............................................................. B-12 Table B-14 Distribution of Air Passengers by Party Size (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Summary) .................................................... B-12 Table B-15 Distribution of Air Passengers by Geography (Unweighted Individual Records) .............................................................. B-13 Table B-16 Distribution of Air Passengers by Geography (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Summary) .................................................... B-14 Table B-17 Distribution of Air Passengers by Mode (Unweighted Individual Records) .............................................................. B-15 Table B-18 Distribution of Air Passengers by Mode (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Summary) ............................................................. B-16 LGA Airport Access Improvement Project iii Table B-19 Distribution of Air Passengers by Age Group (Unweighted Individual Party Records) ..................................................... B-17 Table B-20 Distribution of Air Passengers by Age Group (Weighted Daily O&D Party Trip Summary) .......................................... B-17 Table B-21 Distribution of Air Passengers by Number of Children (under 18 years) in the Travel Party (Unweighted Individual Party Records) ..................................................... B-18 Table B-22 Distribution of Air Passengers by Number of Children (under 18 years) in the Travel Party (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Summary) ..................................................................... B-18 Table B-23 Distribution of Air Passengers by Total Luggage for the Travel Party (Unweighted Individual Party Records) ............ B-19 Table B-24 Distribution of Air Passengers by Total Luggage for the Travel Party (Weighted Daily O&D Party Trip Summary) ..... B-19 Table B-25 Distribution of Air Passengers by Total Carry-ons for the Travel Party (Unweighted Individual Party Records) ............ B-20 Table B-26 Distribution of Air Passengers by Total Carry-ons for the Travel Party (Weighted Daily O&D Party Trip Summary) ..... B-20 Table B-27 Distribution of Air Passengers by Terminal and Type of Flight (Unweighted Individual Records) ................................ B-21 Table B-28 Distribution of Air Passengers by Terminal and Type of Flight (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Summary) ......................... B-21 Table B-29 Distribution of Air Passengers by Time Period of Travel (Unweighted Individual Records) ......................................... B-22 Table B-30 Distribution of Air Passengers by Time Period of Travel (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Summary) .................................. B-22 Table B-31 Distribution of Air Passengers by Mode Groups (Unweighted Individual Records) ......................................... B-23 Table B-32 Distribution of Air Passengers by Mode Groups (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Summary) .................................................... B-26 Table B-33 Distribution of Air Passengers by Mode Groups (Unweighted Individual Party Records) ................................ B-28 Table B-34 Distribution of Air Passengers by Mode Groups (Weighted Daily O&D Trip Party Summary) .......................................... B-30 Table B-35 Fare Elasticities Obtained from the Model Compared to Passenger Preference Survey of LGA Air Passengers, 2017 ..................................................................................... B-37 Table B-36 Distribution of LGA Employees and Commuting Trips by Household