383 _NA_TIJ_RE_VO_L_•• 3_12_22_N_O_VE_M_B_E_R_l984__________ BOOK REVIEWS------------------- feels this shows that events call forth the necessary person. Perhaps, but hold on. P as t probabilities We have at least five birth-orders (only child, eldest, youngest of two, middle of Patrick Rabbitt three or more and youngest of three or more) and if we take only the four political Genius, Creativity & Leadership: Historiometric Inquiries. scenarios distinguished by Stewart (civil By Dean Keith Simonton. conflict; international crisis and warfare; Harvard University Press: 1984. Pp.231. $22, £17.60. peace; and revolution), to show that one of these variables (birth-order) predicts even DEAN Simonton is a prescient man. While tions from which it was drawn. To do this lOOJo of the variance in assignment to the the rest of us glumly accept that our speci­ we must take into account enormous popu­ other (political scenario) would require alisms are of little interest to colleagues lation growth since 1450, the consequent, data from a far larger sample than Stewart trapped in their own obsessions, he has likely, changes in the percentages of the provides. There are, indeed, well-estab­ developed a career as a "historio­ population who could achieve historical lished associations between birth order and metrician". In any Common Room in the recognition of pre-eminence in successive intelligence test scores (5% of variance or world, after the initial difficulty of centuries, and the changes in the percen- less) but samples of thousands have been explaining what this means, he can emerge necessary to detect them. as an expert on the Great Academic Post - The book is shot through with intriguing Prandial Topics of All Time. Do higher examples. For instance, can we find out degrees actually hinder creativity? Can we whether originality in musical composition quantify charisma? Is history, especially is a function of historical period? the history of science, shaped by Simonton considered the first six notes of individuals or by Zeitgeists? Does the 15,618 themes produced by479 "classical" physical presence of a commander really composers between 1500 (Josquin de Pres) affect the outcome of a battle? Are and 1950 (Schoenberg and Shostakovitch). important scientific discoveries typically He examined the first-order transitional made independently by several people, or probabilities between notes in each of these by isolated individuals? And much, much note strings and related them to a (here un­ more. defined) baseline computation for all tran­ Simonton offers more than dinner-table sitional probabilities between notes. Note expertise. He is widely read, and has strings were classified as less original if training in statistical methods the their transition probabilities coincided principles of which he tries to transmit in with, and more original if they deviated five appendices. Perhaps these will not help from, the frequency of two-note transi­ people without, or impress people with, a tional probabilities in the (undefined) similar background, but he undertakes to source transition matrix. On this basis bring recent analytical ideas to his material. Simonton plots his composer-originality This is interesting, since the post hoc detec­ by year from 1500 to 1950 and finds, tion of statistical associations in sub-sets overall, a steady increase in thematic ori­ from vast bodies of potential data can ginality over time, with sinusoidal varia­ easily persuade us of very strange things. tions peaking at about 1650 (Palestrina) Does Simonton's use of some up-to-date and 1920 (Schoenberg), and with a severe statistical techniques reduce uncertainties trough between 1750 and 1820 (Haydn, about assumptions of causal relationships Mozart, Beethoven and Schubert). in very large, uncontrollable, post hoc data I leave others to argue how far two-note samples? Well, not as such. When the logic transitional-probabilities can be a valid behind selection of numbers for analysis is tages of the population examined who ever index of thematic originality because I am dubious, elaborate statistical models experienced higher (let alone "higher entranced by the possibility of a splendid cannot help. For example, on the whole higher") education from 1450 to 1900. computational tautology: if the reference Simonton favours the view that higher edu­ Even if such a tedious computation were transition probability matrix is, as one cation stunts intellectual flexibility. He re­ attempted, the Cox sample of 301 spread must suspect, computed from the entire analyses Cox's (1926) collection of bio­ over four-and-a-half rapidly changing cen­ corpus of 15,618 themes collected over 450 graphical details on "301 geniuses" extant turies would certainly be too small to allow years, this would mean that the earlier a between 1450 and 1900. Very few of them any definite conclusion. It is not that his­ composer flourished the more chance his took higher degrees - which, therefore, toriographers do their sums wrong, it is work had to influence his successors and so are at least uncorrelated with originality?· that apparently they would rather analyse the greater was his likely indirect influence The conclusion may well be correct, but inadequate data than hold their peace. on the baseline against which he was Simonton's argument requires some odd Historical evidence will always be judged. The steady increase in "origin­ assumptions. patchy. This makes it important for histori­ ality" over 450 years is at once explained. One is that the content, and the social ographers to recognize when they do not Further, the more eminent a composer the and career implications of "higher have enough data to answer a question. more he would influence his contem­ degrees" have not changed since 1450. Simonton is intrigued (pp. 165-166) by poraries and successors, and so the more Simonton apparently reassures himself by Stewart's analysis that the familial birth substantial would be his indirect contribu­ computing that the incidence of higher de­ order of "British Prime Ministers" (how tion to the "baseline" matrix. Hence the grees within Cox's sample did not change many examined?) and Presidents of the historical plunge from "originality" between 1450 and 1900. This is interesting, United States (38 studied) appears to cor­ shown by Mozart et al., who are very like but hardly germane. We can only discover relate with the types of political situation the matrix which their influence deter­ whether incidence of higher degrees in the faced by their cabinets. Elsewhere he con­ mined. If we leave out of consideration Cox sample is atypical by comparing it vinces himself that birth order is a potent such perturbing factors as the increased against incidence in the reference popula- force in determining personal style, and diffusion of musical ideas between geo- © 1984 Nature Publishing Group 384 - --------------------BOOK REVIEWS-----------NA_ltJ_RE_VO_L_. 3_12_22_NO_VE_M_BE_R_I_CJ84_ graphically remote cultures as communi­ probable complexity of most mammalian cations improved over the centuries, it may Cue for cooperation chemical cues. The next six chapters deal be that we can extract one conclusion from with the potential sources of the cues and Simonton's elaborate computation: those F .H. Bronson the types of compounds that may arise whose works have survived longest, and from these sources. Thus the skin, scent those whose works are most often per­ Mammalian Semiochemistry: The glands, urine, breath and the reproductive formed, shape the "norms" in musical Investigation of Chemical Signals tract are considered in detail. composition! Between Mammals. Unfortunately much of this discussion Sophisticated mathematical models may By Eric S. Albone. relies upon data collected in human beings, be misleading in another way - they may Wiley: 1984. Pp. 360. £29.50, $57. and in only a few cases are sources and provide precise descriptions of numerical compounds related directly to functions data which are quite implausible in terms MosT mammals are nocturnal and by (this, it should be said, is not the fault of the of real-world processes. Simonton ele­ human standards they are quite small. author, but an accurate reflection of the gantly reviews data on changes in human Thus they rely heavily upon their chemical state of our knowledge). In a further creativity in politics, arts and sciences senses when interacting with other chapter that should be read by everyone between the ages of 20 and 70. Alas, though members of their own species, avoiding interested in the topic, Dr Alb one considers cheerful exceptions abound, the unmis­ predators or searching for food. Chemical the important role played by micro­ takeable trend is for peaks to be reached cues play many crucial roles even in organisms in shaping odours. Finally, a between 35 and 45 with an accelerated mammals that are larger, more diurnal, guest contributor, Dr Stephen Shirley, has decline thereafter. He neatly fits an alge­ and hence more visually-orientated. The written a nice primer on the neuro­ braic model to the data (pp.110 and 111), term "semiochemical" encompasses all physiology of the chemical senses. and on p.109 describes the functional im­ such cues, whether they originate from While this is a historically important plications of this model: plants or animals, and incorporates the book, dealing as it does with a young and concept of communication via pheromones. rapidly developing area, it will probably Each creator uses up [sic) this supply of creative By its very nature, the broad study of fail in its stated objective of bringing potential [determined individually - perhaps close together biologists and chemists. Much of at birth?] during his or her productive career chemical cueing requires by transforming potential into contribu­ collaboration between the chemist and the what the biologist finds exciting about the tions. biologist; as witnessed by its impact on subject is treated only superficially - the entomology, the result can be immensely integration of chemical cues with inform­ I wish that I could believe that, by prudent rewarding.