Transportation Needs & Funding: Where do we go from here? Surface Transportation Funding Task Force September 28, 2016 © 2016, All Rights Reserved. Best Driving Experience in the World – Phoenix Waze is the world's largest community- based traffic and navigation app. ©2016, All Rights Reserved. 2 Major Sources of Transportation Uses of Local & Regional Funds Revenue in Maricopa County (estimated for FY 2017) Other, (estimated for FY 2017) 0.4% $2,914,340 Regional Highways, HURF, $246,000,000 $368,954,384 Dedicated 32.8% 23.5% Local & Regional Funds, $749,658,000 47.8% ADOT Funds, $282,200,000 Streets, 18.0% $48,781,870 Transit, 6.5% $451,961,790 Federal Funds, 60.3% $167,800,000 10.7% Total Major Sources: $1.568 billion Local & Regional Funds: $749.6 million ©2016, All Rights Reserved. 3 $1.25 billion Rebalancing $1.77 billion Under Construction 1 $2.30 billion Programmed $3.90 billion Deferred 13 14 12 11 8 3 5 2 10 6 7 4 9 0 New Construction 0 Traffic Interchange 0 ROW Protection 0 Technology REPRESENTATIVE PROJECTS FOR Illustrative Projects = $8.7 bil. PRESENTATION PURPOSES ONLY. Interstate 17 Loop 303 Add Lanes, Anthem Way to Yavapai County Final determination will be Add Lanes, SR-30 to Interstate 17 completed with the fiscally- constrained NexGen Regional Transportation Plan. US-60/Grand Ave Interstate 10/Interstate 17 Spine COMPASS Improvements Add Lanes, Loop 202 to Loop 101 I-11/Hassayampa New Freeway, Interstate 10 to US-93 Interstate 10/Papago Add Lanes, 459th Ave to Verrado Way SR-24/Gateway Meridian Rd to US-60/SR-79 Arizona SR-30 Freeway Conversion, SR-85 to Loop 303 Add Lanes, Loop 303 to Loop 202 New Freeway, Loop 202 to I-17 Pinal North-South New Freeway, SR-287 to US-60 Loop 303 New Freeway, SR-238 to SR-30 Arizona SR-85 Freeway Conversion, I-8 Interchange Interstate 8 to Interstate 10 SR-238 SR-347 Interstate 10 SR-79 Add Lanes, Riggs Rd to SR- Add Lanes, SR-79B (South) to Add Lanes, Loop 303 to SR-347 Add Lanes, Maricopa to I-10 387 Hunt Hwy © 2013, All Rights Reserved. 5 Illustrative Projects REGIONAL FREEWAY AND HIGHWAY PROGRAM Improvements Cost Opinion New Freeway Corridors Interstate 11, SR-24, SR-30, Loop 303, Pinal North-South $5,500 million Add Lanes I-10, I-17, SR-79, SR-85, SR-238, Loop 303, SR-347 $1,900 million New DHOV and Service Interchanges Unspecified; up to 12 locations $300 million US-60/Grand Ave COMPASS Operational and Access Management Improvements $500 million Operations and Maintenance for Illustrative Projects $500 million $8.7 billion © 2016, All Rights Reserved. 6 ADOT Roadways within MAG Region $80.8 million Annual Operations and Maintenance Costs $67.4 million Fwy Operations and Maintenance Costs $13.4 million Hwy Operations and Maintenance Costs © 2013, All Rights Reserved. 7 2013 Operations and Maintenance Costs . Pavement Preservation $80.8 $31.2 (not Quiet Pave). million million . Bridge Scour and Ideal GAP Deck Maintenance. Drainage/Pumps. $49.6 . Deck Park Tunnel. million . Lighting. ACTUAL . Traffic Operations. Litter/Graffiti. Signs, Signals, and Striping. Source: FY2013-FY2017 State Transportation Improvement Program, ADOT, retrieved September 2013. ©2016, All Rights Reserved. 8 Operations and Maintenance Costs with New Corridors $91.6 $80.8 million million With Existing Opening of System Loop 303, Loop 202, I-10/I-17 Total Operations and Maintenance thru 2040 $2.4 billion 2013 by 2025 © 2013, All Rights Reserved. 9 “Big Budget” Maintenance Items By 2040: . Quiet Pavement Replacement – up to three applications. Interstate 10/Interstate 17 traffic interchange - “The Stack” - structure rehabilitation and deck replacement. Deck Park Tunnel Maintenance. Pump Replacement and Rehabilitation. Rough Estimate - $1.0 billion © 2013, All Rights Reserved. 10 Needs Summary REGIONAL FREEWAY AND HIGHWAY PROGRAM Category Cost Opinion Deferred Proposition 400 Projects $3.9 billion* llustrative Projects (2032-2040) Interstate 11, Pinal North-South, SR-24, SR-30, SR-85 $8.7 billion* Annual Operations and Maintenance 2025 System thru 2040 $2.4 billion Large Maintenance Projects Quiet Pavement Preservation, The Stack, Deck Park Tunnel $1.0 billion $15.6 billion *Includes Operations and Maintenance for that project phase. Source: Maricopa Association of Governments, September 2013. © 2016, All Rights Reserved. 11 Combined Transit Capital and Operations Estimates for 20 Years (billions of 2013 dollars) Base Case $6.27 $6.41 Scenario #1 $8.27 $6.41 Scenario #2 $21.72 $5.78 Scenario #3 $32.37 $7.03 Current Rev. $5.52 $3.41 Regional Local 33.3% of Half Cent Federal Source: Maricopa Association of Governments, September 2013. © 2013, All Rights Reserved. 12 Needs Summary Regional Regional Transit Regional Freeways and Options Arterials- Highways Parkways $32.7 bil. $21.7 bil. $15.6 billion Scenario 1 Base Case $6.3 $8.2 bil. Scenario 3 bil. Scenario 2 $3 billion © 2013, All Rights Reserved. 13 What has Happened since 1991? New Home Price of a Median Consumer Arizona Gas Prices Honda Houehold Price Index Tax $400,000 Accord Income 260 $0.20 240 $350,000 $25,000.0 $60,000.0 220 $300,000 $50,000.0 $0.18 $20,000.0 200 $250,000 $40,000.0 180 $15,000.0 160 $200,000 $30,000.0 $0.16 140 $10,000.0 $150,000 $20,000.0 120 $100,000 $5,000.0 $10,000.0 100 $0.14 1991 2016 1991 2016 1991 2016 1991 2016 1991 2016 139.2% 87.3% 87.6% 76.6% 0.0% ©2016, All Rights Reserved. 14 Potential Transportation Revenue Sources Annual Average Net New Statewide Revenue 2013 to 2022 (millions of dollars) $10 drivers' license fee increase $13.1 0.9% Percent Increase in HURF Revenues 10% Surcharge on Luxury Tax Collections $42.6 3.0% Compared to Projections for 2013 to 2022 $10 registration fee increase $53.4 3.8% Property tax for transportation $96.8 6.8% 5 Cent Local Option Fuel Tax in Maricopa County Indexed $108.6 7.7% Index current state fuel tax to CPI $115.2 8.1 % Replace fuel tax with state sales tax $116.0 8.2 % Add 5 cents to fuel tax $178.0 12.6 % Index current state & federal fuel tax to CPI (state & federal) $228.7 16.2 % Add 5 cents and index state fuel taxes to CPI $316.4 22.4 % Replace fuel tax with state & local sales tax Local $221.06 $337.0 23.8 % Add 5 cents and index state & federal fuel taxes to CPI $429.8 30.4 % 1/2 cent State Transportation Sales Tax $604.9 42.8 % Add state sales tax in addition to current fuel taxes $820.1 58.0 % Add state & local sales tax in addition to current fuel taxes Local $221.06 $1,041.2 73.6 % $0.00 $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 $800.00 $1,000.00 $1,200.00 Source: Maricopa Association of Governments, August, 2013. ©2016, All Rights Reserved. 15 Revenue Categories Sales Tax Fuel Tax Options Options Increase fuel tax Arizona Index to inflation Transportation Sales County option Tax Sales tax on fuel sales Other Options Property tax Driver’s license fee Registration fee Sin tax Transportation Needs & Funding: Where do we go from here? Surface Transportation Funding Task Force September 28, 2016 © 2016, All Rights Reserved. .