CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP Queensland's biodiversity under climate change: ecological scaling of terrestrial environmental change Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper #12B Simon Ferrier, Thomas D. Harwood and Kristen J. Williams September 2012 National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: Queensland's biodiversity under climate change: Ecological scaling of terrestrial environmental change / Simon Ferrier ISBN: 978-1-4863-0279-6 (pdf) Series: CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper series; 12B. Other Tom Harwood and Kristen J. Williams Authors/Contributors: Climate Adaptation Flagship Enquiries Enquiries regarding this document should be addressed to: Kristen J Williams CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences GPO Box 1700, Canberra 2601 [email protected] Enquiries about the Climate Adaptation Flagship or the Working Paper series should be addressed to: Working Paper Coordinator CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship [email protected] Citation This document can be cited as: Ferrier, S., Harwood, T. and Williams, K.J. (2012) Queensland's biodiversity under climate change: Ecological scaling of terrestrial environmental change. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper No. 12B. http://www.csiro.au/resources/CAF-working-papers.html Acknowledgements This work has been funded by the Queensland Government and the CSIRO through the Climate Adaptation Flagship (Managing Species and Ecosystems Theme). The ecological scaling of terrestrial environmental change used the models and data described in Ferrier et al. (2010) and Williams et al. (2010a); the authors and acknowledgements therein apply also here. This manuscript was improved by comments from Michael Berkman (OCC), Craig James and Alistair Hobday, John Scott and Helen Murphy. Thanks to Serena Henry for proof reading. The Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper series The CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship has been created to address the urgent national challenge of enabling Australia to adapt more effectively to the impacts of climate change and variability. This working paper series aims to: • provide a quick and simple avenue to disseminate high-quality original research, based on work in progress • generate discussion by distributing work for comment prior to formal publication. The series is open to researchers working with the Climate Adaptation Flagship on any topic relevant to the Flagship’s goals and scope. Copies of Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Papers can be downloaded at: www.csiro.au/resources/CAF-working-papers CSIRO initiated the National Research Flagships to provide science-based solutions in response to Australia’s major research challenges and opportunities. The Flagships form multidisciplinary teams with industry and the research community to deliver impact and benefits for Australia. Copyright and disclaimer © 2012 CSIRO To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO. Important disclaimer CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. CONTENTS Preamble ..................................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................... 2 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 3 2. Methods ............................................................................................................. 4 3. Results ............................................................................................................... 6 3.1 Potential for ecological change ................................................................................. 6 3.2 Disappearing and novel environments ..................................................................... 9 3.3 Potential change in ‘effective habitat area’ ............................................................. 15 3.4 Distance to the closest compositionally similar cell ................................................ 19 3.5 Potential benefit of adaptation management actions enhancing or assisting, long- distance migration / colonisation ............................................................................ 23 3.6 Potential benefit of adaptation management actions restoring cleared or degraded native habitat in local landscapes ........................................................................... 27 3.7 Projected change in the distribution of ecologically scaled environments – an example .................................................................................................................. 30 4. A preliminary synthesis of bioregional patterns ........................................... 35 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 35 4.2 Likelihood of existing environments disappearing from the continent .................... 36 4.3 Likelihood of appearance of novel environments ................................................... 36 4.4 Potential benefit of actions enhancing long-distance dispersal .............................. 36 4.5 Potential benefit of actions restoring native habitat in local landscapes ................ 38 4.6 Discussion............................................................................................................... 38 5. Conclusions .................................................................................................... 43 References ................................................................................................................ 44 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper 12B • September 2012 i List of Figures Figure 1: Ecological scaling of environmental change. Biological survey data (e.g., vascular plants) are combined with current climate data, along with data on substrate (e.g., soils, geology) and topography, to generate a GDM model for current conditions (e.g., 1960 equilibrium climates). This model is then used to scale both current and future environmental conditions. ................................................................................................................................. 5 Figure 2: Potential ecologically-scaled environmental change, in 2030 and 2070, for two climate- change scenarios, based on modelling of species composition of vascular-plant communities (benchmarked using 1960-centred average climates). Green areas are those with least potential for change, while red areas have highest potential for change in composition. This map shows projected changes in environmental conditions only. Realised changes in the distribution of species and communities will be determined by a range of additional processes not considered here (e.g., dispersal, biotic interactions, capacity for evolutionary adaptation). ............................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 3: Potential ecologically-scaled environmental change for 2070, A1B climate scenario (enlarged map from Figure 2), based on modelling of species composition of vascular-plant communities (benchmarked using 1960-centred average climates). Darker reddish-browns indicate higher levels of potential environmental change. This map shows projected changes in environmental conditions only. Realised changes in the distribution of species and communities will be determined by a range of additional processes not considered here (e.g., dispersal, biotic interactions, capacity for evolutionary adaptation). ......................................... 8 Figure 4: Potential distribution of disappearing environments under A1B climate scenario, for 2070 (scaled using modelling of species composition of vascular-plant communities, benchmarked using 1960-centred average climates), relative to three different spatial domains or contexts:1) a 50 km radius around each location; 2) all of Queensland; and all of Australia. Reddish-brown areas are those with current environments that are least likely to occur anywhere in a 50km radius (or in Queensland or in Australia, depending on the spatial domain employed) under this climate scenario, while environments in the blue areas are those most likely to be retained somewhere in the spatial domain. This map shows projected changes in environmental conditions only. Realised changes in the distribution of species and communities will be determined by a range of additional processes not considered here (e.g., dispersal, biotic interactions, capacity for evolutionary adaptation). ............................