제 출 문 한국철도기술연구원 원장 귀하 이 보고서를 “미래교통 핵심원천기술개발을 위한 전략기획연구”의 보고서로 제출 합니다. 2014. 12. 연구기관명 : 한국철도기술연구원 연구책임자 : 책임연구원 정 호 성 사업총괄 연구원 : 수석연구원 유 원 희 R&D 전략수립 책임연구원 최 진 유 신규과제 기획 책임연구원 박 준 혁 R&D 전략수립 책임연구원 백 광 선 R&D 전략수립 책임연구원 장 세 기 첨단기술 모니터링 책임연구원 이 한 민 원천기술 검증지원 선임연구원 신 경 호 첨단기술모니터링 선임연구원 김 은 R&D 전략수립 선임연구원 박 정 준 신규과제 기획 선임연구원 권 태 순 신규과제 기획 선임연구원 박 철 민 R&D 동향분석 선임연구원 김 재 원 원천기술 검증지원 선임연구원 강 석 원 원천기술 검증지원 선임연구원 김 보 경 신규과제 기획 선임연구원 표 석 훈 R&D 동향분석 - i - 보고서 요약서 2014.1.1. 당해연도 2014.1.1. 과제코드 PK14007C 총연구기간 ~2014.12.31 연구기간 ~2014.12.31 연 구 사 업 명 한국철도기술연구원 주요사업 대 과 제 명 미래철도 기술개발을 위한 창의연구 연 구 과 제 명 세부과제명 미래교통 핵심원천기술개발을 위한 전략기획연구 정부: 해당단계 총 : 16 명 해당단계 1,053 백만원 연 구 책 임 자 정 호 성 참 여 내부 :16 명 연 구 비 기업 : 천원 연구원수 외부 : 명 계 : 천원 연구기관명 및 한국철도기술연구원 참여기업명 소 속 부 서 명 기술전략실 국제공동연구 상대국명 : 상대국연구기관명 : 위 탁 연 구 연구기관명 : 연구책임자 : 요약(연구결과를 중심으로 개조식 500자 이내) 보고서면수 121 - 최근 국가R&D 성과창출 및 확산에 대한 요구가 증가되고, 그에 따라 국가 성과평가제도의 변화, 출연연 고유임무재정립 및 출연연간 융복합 연구 확대 등 전반적으로 연구개발 환경의 변화가 이루어짐 - 철도(연)이 현재 가지고 있는 핵심역량을 더욱 발전시켜 세계적인 수준의 연구기관으로 도약하기 위해 철도연의 고유임무에 집중된 수요지향적, 미래선도형 기술개발 전략의 수립이 필요함 - 본 연구과제는 철도연 정책․전략 수립의 기반이 되는 과제로써, 주요사업을 중심으로 하는 철도(연) 연구개발 방향정립 및 지원제도의 선진화 전략을 수립하는 ‘정책․전략 부문’과 향후 철도(연)의 성장동력으로서 새롭게 탐색연구가 필요한 전략분야에 대한 ‘기초기획연구 부문’으로 구성됨 - 선진 교통 R&D 기관 전략 분석, 수요지향적 사업화 전략 수립, 주요사업 R&D 기획 및 신기술 철도활용 방안, 물류사업 활성화방안 기획 연구 등을 통해 철도 기술 및 철도산업의 경쟁력을 높일 수 있는 철도(연) 연구개발 방향을 제시함 - 이를 통해, 철도(연)의 차년도(2015) 주요사업 R&D 방향을 정립, 주요사업 기획 및 수행방안에 반영할 수 있도록 방안을 마련함 한 글 연구개발 전략, 미래교통, 핵심원천기술, 사업기획 색 인 어 R&D Strategy, Future Transportation, (각 5개 이상) 영 어 Core Technology, Project Planning - ii - 요 약 문 Ⅰ. 제목 ○ 미래교통 핵심원천기술개발을 위한 전략기획연구 Ⅱ. 연구개발의 목적 및 필요성 ○ 본 연구의 목적은 철도 경쟁력 강화를 위한 미래교통분야 핵심원천기술 개발 전략 수립 및 기술기획을 통해 철도(연)이 현재 가지고 있는 핵심역량을 발전시켜 세계적인 수준의 연구기관으로 나아가기 위한 제도적․정책적 방안을 제시하는 것임. ○ 국내외 철도 및 교통부문의 기술적․정책적 환경 변화와 더불어 국가연구개발사업의 연구창출을 위한 국가적 요구에 부합하여, 철도(연)의 고유임무를 효과적으로 수행하기 위한 전략수립이 필요함. Ⅲ. 연구개발의 내용 및 범위 ○ 국내외 철도 및 교통분야 기술개발, 정책, 선진연구기관 현황 및 시장동향을 분석하고, 이를 통하여 전략적 교통분야 핵심 R&D 발굴 및 추진전략을 수립하였으며, 수요조사를 통한 연구테마 발굴 및 계층분석 의사결정 방식의 우선도평가 (Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)등 신규 주요사업 기획을 수행함. ○ 또한 신진연구자 원천기술개발 Feasibility 연구지원 및 전략연구분야 동향 분석을 통해 미래핵심 원천기술 연구 타당성을 제시함. Ⅳ. 연구개발결과 ○ 미래철도원천기술 연구개발 전략수립 ○ 국내외 철도기술, 정책, 시장 및 선진 철도 R&D 기관 분석 ○ 신규 주요사업 R&D 추진 방향 기획 ○ 전략분야 기술기획 (철도물류 선진화 방안) 및 신진연구자 원천기술연구 지원 Ⅴ. 연구개발결과의 활용계획 ○ 2015년도 주요사업 기획 및 신규 국가 R&D 사업 도출 - iii - 목 차 제1장 연구개발과제의 개요 ·····························································································1 제1절 연구의 목적 ··········································································································1 제2절 연구 수행방법 ······································································································3 제2장 국내외 환경변화 및 R&D 현황 분석 ·······························································4 제1절 국내외 기술동향 분석 ························································································4 제2절 국내외 정책동향 분석 ························································································8 제3절 국내외 시장동향 분석 ······················································································12 제3장 교통분야 핵심 R&D 전략 수립 ·······································································16 제1절 국가별 철도 R&D 기술수준 비교 ································································16 제2절 교통분야 선진연구기관 분석 ··········································································24 제3절 교통분야 R&D SWOT 분석 ··········································································55 제4절 철도(연) R&D 중기 전략목표 및 성과창출 로드맵 수립 ·······················56 제4장 미래교통 핵심원천기술 연구 기획 ··································································62 제1절 전략과제 발굴을 위한 기술수요 조사 ··························································62 제2절 수요기반 전략과제 기획 ··················································································65 제3절 신진연구자 원천기술 Feasibility 연구 지원 ···············································68 제5장 미래철도원천기술 전략분야 환경 연구 ·························································87 제1절 글로벌 교통인프라 투자사업 추진체계 ························································87 제2절 물류 산업 및 철도물류의 현황 및 동향 ······················································99 제6장 참고문헌 ················································································································120 - iv - 표 목 차 표 2.1.1 ERRAC Rail Route 2050 로드맵 ·······································································5 표 3.1.1 해외 고속철도 차량 개발·운행 현황 ·······························································16 표 3.1.2 고속철도 사고 및 장애 발생건수(국토교통부 ’14년 철도안전종합시행계획) 20 표 3.1.3 동북아 주요국가별 철도시스템 현황 ·······························································22 표 3.1.4 철도분야별 선진국 대비 국내 기술수준 비교 ···············································22 표 3.1.5 세부기술별 선진국 대비 국내 기술수준 비교 ···············································23 표 3.2.1 교통분야 선진연구기관 현황 ·············································································24 표 3.2.2 기관특성 유사 외국연구기관(중국철도과학연구원)과의 비교 ····················26 표 3.2.3 주요기술별 선진연구기관과의 비교 ·······························································27 표 4.1.1 2015년 신규주요사업 수요조사 제안과제 ·······················································62 표 4.2.1 4대 전략 및 중점과제 주요 내용 ·····································································67 표 4.3.1 하이브리드 커패시터의 개발 목표 ···································································71 표 4.3.2 나노유체의 종류 및 평가 범위 ·········································································84 표 4.3.3 나노유체의 열전도도 계산에 사용된 나노 입자의 특성 ·····························85 표 6.1.1 NEPA 절차에 따른 평가순서 및 내용 ···························································87 표 6.1.2 미국의 각 주별 투자우선순위 선정을 위한 평가항목 및 평가방법 ·········89 표 6.1.3 최소요구조건과 권고사항 ···················································································93 표 6.1.4 프랑스 투자평가체계 편익항목 ·········································································95 표 6.1.5 투자우선순위 선정을 위한 평가항목 ·······························································96 표 6.1.6 국내 ․ 외 철도사업 추진체계 ·········································································98 표 6.2.1 국내총생산(GDP) ·······························································································100 표 6.2.2 운수업 일반현황 ·································································································100 표 6.2.3 세계 Global Forwarder 순위(2011~2012) ·····················································100 표 6.2.4 국내 교통수단별 화물 수송현황 ·····································································101 표 6.2.5 국내 영업용 화물자동차 현황 ·········································································102 표 6.2.6 국내 화물자동차 등록 현황 ·············································································102 표 6.2.7 국내 교통수단별 화물 수송현황 ·····································································107 표 6.2.8 국내 철도화물수송량 추이 ···············································································107 표 6.2.9 국내 영업용 화물자동차 수송 총괄 ·······························································108 표 6.2.10 한국철도공사의 매출액 및 영업이익 ···························································110 - v - 표 6.2.11 한국철도공사 경영현황(2000년-2012년) ·····················································110 표 6.2.12 한국철도공사의 연도별 손익계산서 ·····························································111 표 6.2.13 철도공사의 물류사업 매출액 및 화물수송량 ·············································111 표 6.2.14 한국철도공사의 철도 화물수송 추이 ···························································111 표 6.2.15 연도별 철도 컨테이너수송량 현황(2003-2012) ·········································112 표 6.2.16 철도화물 품목별 수송실적(2004년-2012년) ···············································113 표 6.2.17 영국의 국내 수송수단별 화물수송량 ···························································116 표 6.2.18 영국 국내 상품별·수송수단별 화물수송량 ·················································117 표 6.2.19 일본의 철도화물수송통계 2010년=100기준 ················································118 표 6.2.20 철도화물수송통계 2010년=100기준 ······························································119 - vi - 그 림 목 차 그림 2.2.1 일본 RTRI에서 제시한 미래 연구개발 분야 ·············································11 그림 2.3.1 유럽 국가별 신규고속철도 선로구축 예측 ···············································12 그림 2.3.2 미국 화물 및 여객 수송분담률 동향 ···························································13 그림 2.3.3 아시아-태평양 지역 고속철도망 건설 현황 및 계획 ······························14 그림 2.3.4 2012-2022년 중국 철도차량 예측 현황 ······················································15 그림 3.1.1 HEMU 430-X 차량 및 테스트 구간 ···························································17 그림 3.1.2 고성능 전동차 및 광역급행철도 ···································································18 그림 3.1.3 수송인원 및 거리에 따른 최적 도시형 교통시스템 ·································18 그림 3.1.4 첨단 센싱기법을 기반으로 한 철도안전시스템 개념도 ···························21 그림 3.1.5 고속화물철도 수송시스템(CTX) 개념도 ·····················································21 그림 3.4.1 한국철도기술연구원 중장기 발전전략 ·························································58 그림 4.1.1 AHP 분석과정 ··································································································64 그림 4.2.1 2015년 신규주요사업 구성(안) ······································································66 그림 4.3.1 수송시스템용 대용량 슈퍼커패시터의 성장전망 ·······································69 그림 4.3.2 슈퍼커패시터 시장전망 ···················································································69 그림 4.3.3 하이브리드 커패시터 기본 개념도 ·······························································70 그림 4.3.4 탄소나노복합소재를 활용한 전극 개발 ·······················································72 그림 4.3.5 대면적화를 위한 공정 기술(성능최적화 기술) ··········································73 그림 4.3.6 직렬 셀 기술 모식도 ·······················································································74