ISSN 0219-3213 2019 no. 2 Trends in Southeast Asia VIETNAM’S INDUSTRIALIZATION AMBITIONS: THE CASE OF VINGROUP AND THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY LE HONG HIEP TRS2/19s ISBN 978-981-4843-41-6 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Singapore 119614 http://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg 9 7 8 9 8 1 4 8 4 3 4 1 6 Trends in Southeast Asia 19-J05102 01 Trends_2019-02.indd 1 16/1/19 12:26 PM The ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (formerly Institute of Southeast Asian Studies) is an autonomous organization established in 1968. It is a regional centre dedicated to the study of socio-political, security, and economic trends and developments in Southeast Asia and its wider geostrategic and economic environment. The Institute’s research programmes are grouped under Regional Economic Studies (RES), Regional Strategic and Political Studies (RSPS), and Regional Social and Cultural Studies (RSCS). The Institute is also home to the ASEAN Studies Centre (ASC), the Nalanda-Sriwijaya Centre (NSC) and the Singapore APEC Study Centre. ISEAS Publishing, an established academic press, has issued more than 2,000 books and journals. It is the largest scholarly publisher of research about Southeast Asia from within the region. ISEAS Publishing works with many other academic and trade publishers and distributors to disseminate important research and analyses from and about Southeast Asia to the rest of the world. 19-J05102 01 Trends_2019-02.indd 2 16/1/19 12:26 PM 2019 no. 2 Trends in Southeast Asia VIETNAM’S INDUSTRIALIZATION AMBITIONS: THE CASE OF VINGROUP AND THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY LE HONG HIEP 19-J05102 01 Trends_2019-02.indd 3 16/1/19 12:26 PM Published by: ISEAS Publishing 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Singapore 119614 [email protected] http://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg © 2019 ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission. The author is wholly responsible for the views expressed in this book which do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher. ISEAS Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Le, Hong Hiep. Vietnam’s Industrialization Ambitions : The Case of Vingroup and the Automotive Industry. (Trends in Southeast Asia Series, 0219-3213 ; TRS2/19) 1. Industrialization—Vietnam—Case studies. 2. Automobile industry and trade—Vietnam—Case studies. 3. Conglomerate corporations—Vietnam. 4. Vietnam—Economic conditions. I. Title. II. Series: Trends in Southeast Asia ; TRS2/19. DS501 I59T no. 2(2019) January 2019 ISBN 978-981-4843-41-6 (soft cover) ISBN 978-981-4843-42-3 (ebook, PDF) Typeset by Superskill Graphics Pte Ltd Printed in Singapore by Markono Print Media Pte Ltd 19-J05102 01 Trends_2019-02.indd 4 16/1/19 12:26 PM FOREWORD The economic, political, strategic and cultural dynamism in Southeast Asia has gained added relevance in recent years with the spectacular rise of giant economies in East and South Asia. This has drawn greater attention to the region and to the enhanced role it now plays in international relations and global economics. The sustained effort made by Southeast Asian nations since 1967 towards a peaceful and gradual integration of their economies has had indubitable success, and perhaps as a consequence of this, most of these countries are undergoing deep political and social changes domestically and are constructing innovative solutions to meet new international challenges. Big Power tensions continue to be played out in the neighbourhood despite the tradition of neutrality exercised by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The Trends in Southeast Asia series acts as a platform for serious analyses by selected authors who are experts in their fields. It is aimed at encouraging policymakers and scholars to contemplate the diversity and dynamism of this exciting region. THE EDITORS Series Chairman: Choi Shing Kwok Series Editor: Ooi Kee Beng Editorial Committee: Su-Ann Oh Daljit Singh Francis E. Hutchinson Benjamin Loh 19-J05102 01 Trends_2019-02.indd 5 16/1/19 12:26 PM 19-J05102 01 Trends_2019-02.indd 6 16/1/19 12:26 PM Vietnam’s Industrialization Ambitions: The Case of Vingroup and the Automotive Industry By Le Hong Hiep EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Vietnam has officially admitted its failure to achieve industrialized economy status by 2020. This failure is partly due to its inability to grow a strong local manufacturing base and develop key strategic industries. • The participation of Vingroup, the country’s largest private conglomerate, in the automotive industry has sparked new hopes for Vietnam’s industrialization drive. The company, through its subsidiary Vinfast, aims to become a leading automaker in Southeast Asia with an annual capacity of 500,000 units and a localization ratio of 60 per cent by 2025. • Challenges that Vinfast faces include its unproven track record in the industry; the limited size of the national car market; the lack of infrastructure to support car usage in Vietnam; the intense competition from foreign brands; and its initial reliance on imported technologies and know-hows. • However, Vinfast enjoys certain advantages in the domestic market, including the large potential of the Vietnamese automotive market; its freedom as a new automaker to define its business strategies without having to deal with legacy issues; Vingroup’s sound business and financial performance and its ecosystem; strong support from the Vietnamese government; and nationalist sentiments that will encourage certain Vietnamese customers to choose its products. 19-J05102 01 Trends_2019-02.indd 7 16/1/19 12:26 PM • If Vinfast is successful, it will boost Vietnam’s GDP growth and reinvent the country’s automotive industry. Its success will also contribute significantly to the realization of Vietnam’s industrialization ambitions and bring private actors into the centre stage of the economy. If the company fails, however, it will cause considerable problems for both Vingroup and the Vietnamese economy. 19-J05102 01 Trends_2019-02.indd 8 16/1/19 12:26 PM Vietnam’s Industrialization Ambitions: The Case of Vingroup and the Automotive Industry By Le Hong Hiep1 INTRODUCTION At its eighth national congress in 1996, the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) set the target of turning Vietnam into an industrialized economy by 2020. However, in April 2016, National Assembly Chairwoman Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan acknowledged that Vietnam would not be able to achieve that goal. Documents of the CPV’s twelfth national congress in January 2016 also acknowledged this failure. Specifically, the political report of the congress replaced the target of “creating foundations to turn the country into a basically modern and industrialized country by 2020” in the eleventh congress’s political report by “creating foundations to turn the country into an effectively modern and industrialized country soon”. The replacement of the deadline “by 2020” with the vague term “soon” reflects the Party’s more realistic view of the economy as well as its cautious assessment of the country’s industrialization prospects.2 Among the reasons for Vietnam’s failure to achieve the goal was its inability to grow a strong local manufacturing base and develop key strategic industries to provide a strong momentum for the country’s industrialization. The automotive industry is one of the primary examples. Despite repeated efforts, Vietnam’s automotive industry has been based 1 Le Hong Hiep is a Fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore. 2 Le Hong Hiep, “Vietnam in 2015: Challenges Persist amidst Hope for Change”, in Southeast Asian Affairs 2016, edited by Malcolm Cook and Daljit Singh (Singapore: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, 2016), p. 365. 1 19-J05102 01 Trends_2019-02.indd 1 16/1/19 12:26 PM mainly on a handful of assembling facilities, and supporting industries have remained largely undeveloped. Recently, Vietnam’s hopes for an indigenous automotive industry were rekindled when Vingroup, the country’s largest private conglomerate, started in September 2017 the construction of a manufacturing complex in the northern city of Hai Phong and announced plans to develop a national car under the brand of Vinfast. Within a year, Vinfast managed to develop two prototypes, a sedan and a sport utility vehicle (SUV), which debutted with great fanfare at the 2018 Paris Motor Show. The company plans to put its first cars on the market in 2019. While it is still too early to tell whether Vinfast will be successful, the way the company is rolling out its strategy, the great potential of the Vietnamese car market, the strong support that the Vietnamese government is lending the company, and the generally positive reception the Vietnamese public has shown for its first models, have all given rise to the hope that Vietnam will eventually be able to develop its own automotive industry. The impetus shown by Vinfast, if sustained, may also become a significant landmark along Vietnam’s economic development and industrialization path. This article reviews Vingroup’s decision to enter the automotive industry and discusses its implications for Vietnam’s industrialization drive in general and its automotive industry in particular. It will provide an overview of the Vietnamese automotive industry before examining Vinfast as a potential game changer. The article will then analyse the company’s challenges and opportunities before offering some insights into the role that the company can play in Vietnam’s industrialization process. AN OVERVIEW OF VIETNAM’S AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY Since Vietnam adopted market-based reforms in 1986, restructuring the economy towards a greater share of manufacturing in the GDP and an advanced high-tech industrial base has been a top priority for the country. The automotive industry with its sophisticated high-tech and industrial contents as well as the potential to generate spillover effects 2 19-J05102 01 Trends_2019-02.indd 2 16/1/19 12:26 PM has therefore been one of the strategic industries that Vietnam would like to develop.