1 2 Assessment and prioritisation of risk for forty exotic animal species Marion Massam, Win Kirkpatrick and Amanda Page Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia 1 This report was completed for the Detection and Prevention Program’s Project 9.D.1: Invasive pest vertebrates: validating and refining risk assessment models. Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this report reflect those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government or the Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre. The material presented in this report is based on sources that are believed to be reliable. Whilst every care has been taken in the preparation of the report, the authors give no warranty that the said sources are correct and accept no responsibility for any resultant errors contained herein any damages or loss, whatsoever caused or suffered by any individual or corporation. Published by: Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre Postal address: University of Canberra, ACT 2600 Office Location: University of Canberra, Kirinari Street, Bruce ACT 2617 Telephone: (02) 6201 2887 Facsimile: (02) 6201 2532 Email: [email protected] Internet: http://www.invasiveanimals.com Web ISBN 978-0-9806716-8-1 © Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre 2010 This work is copyright. The Copyright Act 1968 permits fair dealing for study, research, information or educational purposes. Selected passages, tables or diagrams may be reproduced for such purposes provided acknowledgement of the source is included. Major extracts of the entire document may not be reproduced by any process. Cover images: (left to right): red deer (D Panther), red eared slider turtle (Qld Biosecurity DEEDI), black-spined toad (P Barnden). Editor: Wendy Henderson (Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre) This document should be cited as: Massam M, Kirkpatrick W and Page A (2010). Assessment and prioritisation of risk for forty introduced animal species. Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre, Canberra. Risk assessment documents are available from the Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre and the authors. 2 Contents Summary................................................................................................................................7 Acronyms ............................................................................................................................ 11 Glossary............................................................................................................................... 11 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 14 1.1 Pest animal problems and policies................................................................ 14 1.2 Risk assessment models............................................................................... 15 1.3 VPC list of exotic vertebrates ........................................................................ 16 1.4 Project aims................................................................................................... 16 1.5 Achievements................................................................................................ 16 2 Methods ................................................................................................................... 18 2.1 Species selection .......................................................................................... 18 2.2 Data used in analyses ................................................................................... 18 2.3 Risk assessment model for birds and mammals........................................... 19 2.4 Domestic sheep assessment ........................................................................ 20 2.5 Risk assessment models for establishment of reptiles and amphibians ....... 22 2.5.1 Australian Bird and Mammal Model................................................... 22 2.5.2 Australian Reptile and Amphibian Model........................................... 23 2.5.3 Convention for assignment of ERRs.................................................. 23 2.5.4 Efficient assignment of ERRs ............................................................ 23 2.6 Other information gathered to assess pest risks posed by reptiles and amphibians ............................................................................................. 25 2.6.1 Checklist of factors associated with adverse impacts........................ 25 2.6.2 Predicting adverse impacts on Australian native species and primary production...................................................................... 25 2.6.3 Predicting risks to public safety posed by captive or released individuals.......................................................................................... 26 2.7 Indicating information-related uncertainty in risk assessments ..................... 26 2.8 Assigning DAFWA Threat Categories and Alternative Threat Categories to reptiles and amphibians ............................................................................ 27 2.9 Prioritisation of species ................................................................................. 30 2.10 Assessment processes.................................................................................. 30 3 2.10.1 Consistency of model use.................................................................. 31 2.10.2 Literature reviews .............................................................................. 31 2.10.3 Literature review key words............................................................... 31 2.10.4 Assessment review............................................................................ 32 2.11 Assessor credentials, selection and training ................................................. 32 3 Results ..................................................................................................................... 33 3.1 Currency of risk assessments ....................................................................... 33 3.2 Bird and mammal assessments .................................................................... 33 3.2.1 Summary of results for the bird and mammals .................................. 33 3.2.2 Comparison of the models in assigning ERRs .................................. 35 3.2.3 Inconsistencies in assigning threat categories .................................. 35 3.2.4 Comparison with Bomford 2006 study............................................... 36 3.3 Reptile and amphibian assessments............................................................. 36 3.3.1 Summary of results for reptiles and amphibians................................ 36 3.3.2 Comparison of the models in assigning ERRs .................................. 39 3.3.3 Inconsistencies in assigning ERRs.................................................... 40 3.3.4 Comparison with Bomford 2006 study............................................... 41 3.4 Information on adverse impacts of reptiles and amphibians ......................... 41 3.4.1 Factors associated with increased risk of adverse impacts............... 41 3.4.2 Adverse impacts on Australian native species and primary production...................................................................... 44 3.4.3 Risks to public safety posed by captive or released individuals ........ 44 3.5 Indications of information-related uncertainty in all risk assessments........... 45 3.5.1 Differences in numbers of references overall .................................... 45 3.5.2 Differences in numbers of references on overseas adverse impacts................................................................................. 45 3.5.3 Differences in numbers of references on public safety and establishment risk.............................................................................. 46 3.6 Methods to assign threat categories to reptiles and amphibians................... 46 3.6.1 DAFWA Threat Categories................................................................ 46 3.6.2 Alternative Threat Categories............................................................ 47 3.7 Prioritisation of species ................................................................................. 47 3.7.1 Birds and mammals........................................................................... 47 3.7.2 Reptiles and amphibians ................................................................... 47 4 Discussion ............................................................................................................... 50 4.1 Management of uncertainty........................................................................... 50 4.1.1 Uncertainty of the process — risk assessment models used ............ 51 4.1.2 Further validation of the models for Australia .................................... 52 4.1.3 Uncertainty of the process — assessment processes followed......... 52 4.1.4 Uncertainty of the assessors ............................................................. 53 4.1.5 Uncertainty about the organism......................................................... 53 4.1.6 Comparisons between predicted and actual results.......................... 55 4 4.1.7 Developing methods to assign DAFWA and Alternative Threat Categories to reptiles and amphibians .............................................. 55 4.1.8 Management of mammals assigned to the Moderate VPC Threat Category................................................................................