View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2003-06 The war that never happened : the sharing of Euphrates-Tigris Rivers' water between Turkey, Syria and Iraq Yilmaz, Mehmet. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/884 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS THE WAR THAT NEVER HAPPENED: THE SHARING OF EUPHRATES – TIGRIS RIVERS’ WATER BETWEEN TURKEY, SYRIA AND IRAQ by Mehmet Yilmaz June 2003 Thesis Advisor: T.V. Paul Second Reader: James Russel Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2003 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: 5. FUNDING NUMBERS The War that never Happened: The Sharing of Euphrates – Tigris Rivers’ Water between Turkey, Syria and Iraq 6. AUTHOR(S) 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the AGENCY REPORT NUMBER official policy or position of Turkey, Syria and Iraq. 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Turkish, Syrian and Iraqi government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Most recent studies and reports indicate that there is a significant risk of conflicts and wars over water sharing in the Middle East because of scarcity. Apart from exaggerating the scarcity of water resources and the likelihood of war, the major flaw of these assessments is that they just identify and do not solve the problem of water scarcity. The idea that water scarcity is the main source of conflict in the region is too narrow. Because water is so essential to life, even hostile coriparians have historically sought to compromise rather go to war over this resource, even as disputes have raged on other issues. Indeed, the historical record is predominantly cooperation rather than conflict when it comes to water sharing. This thesis provides a clear description of why water scarcity has not caused a violent conflict between Turkey, Syria and Iraq in the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF Water, Middle East, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, the Euphrates River, the Tigris River, Cooperation, Conflict. PAGES 118 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THE WAR THAT NEVER HAPPENED: THE SHARING OF EUPHRATES – TIGRIS RIVERS’ WATER BETWEEN TURKEY, SYRIA AND IRAQ Mehmet Yilmaz Second Lieutenant, Turkish Air Force B.S., Turkish Air Force Academy, 2000 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2003 Author: Mehmet Yilmaz Approved by: T.V Paul, Thesis Advisor James Russel, Second Reader James Writz, Chairman Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Most recent studies and reports indicate that there is a significant risk of conflict over water sharing in the Middle East because of scarcity. Apart from exaggerating the scarcity of water resources and the likelihood of war, the major flaw of these assessments is that they just identify and do not solve the problem of water scarcity. The idea that water scarcity is the main source of conflict in the region is too narrow. Because water is so essential to life, even hostile coriparians have historically sought to compromise rather go to war over this resource, even as disputes have raged on other issues. The historical record is predominantly cooperation rather than conflict when it comes to water sharing. This thesis provides a clear description of why water scarcity has not caused a violent conflict between Turkey, Syria and Iraq in the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. THESIS INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................1 A. THESIS HYPOTHESIS ..................................................................................2 B. THESIS STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZATION.........................................4 II. THE MAIN ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES ABOUT CONFLICT AND COOPERATION ON WATER SHARING.............................................................11 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................11 B. LINK BETWEEN WATER AND CONFLICT AND COOPERATION SAMPLE..........................................................................12 1. Water as a security issue ...................................................................13 2. Water as an environmental issue......................................................19 III. WHY IS WATER SHARING PROBLEMATIC AND SO IMPORTANT IN THE EUPHRATES – TIGRIS RIVER BASIN?.....................................................25 A. WHY WATER SHARING IS PROBLEMATIC IN THE EUPHRATES-TIGRIS RIVER BASIN? ....................................................25 1. Geography and Climate ample.........................................................26 2. Hydrography of the Basin.................................................................26 3. Population and Economy ..................................................................29 4. Basin’s Insufficient Amount of Water for Future Use ...................30 5. Transboundary Character ................................................................31 6. Unreliable Information......................................................................31 7. Unrealistic Existing Demands...........................................................31 8. International Law and Transboundary Rivers...............................33 B. WHY WATER IS SO IMPORTANT FOR EACH COUNTRY? .............35 2. Turkey.................................................................................................35 3. Syria ....................................................................................................40 4. Iraq......................................................................................................46 IV. IS THERE A HYDROLPOLITICAL CONFLICT IN THE EUPHRATES- TIGRIS RIVER BASIN? ..........................................................................................51 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................51 B. WATER-RELATED AGREEMENTS BETWEEN TURKEY SYRIA AND IRAQ .....................................................................................................56 1. The First Phase (after dissolution of Ottoman Empire to 1960) ...56 2. The Second Phase (1960 and onwards)............................................58 C. THREE RIPARIAN COUNTRIES FOLLOW SOME NORMS, WHILE USING THE BASIN'S WATER....................................................66 D. OTHER REASONS THAT CREATE TENSION IN THE EUPHRATES-TIGRIS RIVER BASIN.......................................................68 E. WATER PROJECTS IN THE EUPHRATES AND TIGRIS BASIN ....74 1. Iraq’s Dams and Lakes......................................................................76 vii 2. Syria's Dams and Lakes ....................................................................77 3. Turkey's Dams and Lakes.................................................................79 F. IN THE EUPHRATES – TIGRIS BASIN, NONE OF THE RIPARIAN COUNTRIES IS FACING AN IMMINENT WATER SHORTAGE...................................................................................................86 V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMENDATIONS.........................................................89 A. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................89 B. RECOMMENDATIONS...............................................................................93 LIST OF REFERENCES......................................................................................................97 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST .......................................................................................101