GALLUP INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL GALLUP POLLING AROUND THE WORLD VOICE ASSOCIATION OF THE PEOPLE 2015 ublic opinion is the new world power that influ- ences the great social Pand economic movements If democracy is supposed to be based 70% of people worldwide say they are happy with their life up across the globe. Political on the will of the people, then some- from 60% last year, although just 42% believe that next year leaders are faced with a noisier, body should go out and find out will be one of economic prosperity for their country. V more active and more diverse what that will is. The right to speak OICE electorate. Economic leaders out vigorously on governmental and Six out of ten (63%) citizens worldwidesay they are religious, are also faced with a more corporate policies is one of the most while one in five (22%) say they are not and one in ten (11%) experienced, demanding and staunchly defended freedoms of the consider themselves convinced atheists. In Africa and the unfaithful clientele. Wor l d .’ Middle East more than 8 out of 10 people (86% and 82% re- The aim of this book is to help spectively) portray themselves as religious while 7 out of 10 OF you navigate through the con- The right to speak out vigorously on say so in Eastern Europe and America (71% and 66% re- stantly changing world. This governmental and corporate pol- VOICE spectively) and 6 out of 10 (62%) in Asia, say they are. book will also help you better icies is one of the most staunchly THE PEOPLE understand the trends in pub- defended freedoms of the Western OF THE PEOPLE lic opinion and the main issues World. The advent of modern pub- A majority of world’s citizens agreed that men and women in the key regions of the world. lic opinion polls, dealing as they do benefit from the same rights in their countries (59%), though The mission of WIN/Gallup with important political, social and significant proportions of adults worldwide still believed the 2015 International is to give a voice economic issues of the day help to opposite (38%). to the citizens of the world, provide an opportunity to let gov- people who seek more democ- ernment officials, public and private What the World Thinks racy, freedom and justice. The institutions, and the public itself 61% of those polled across 64 countries would be willing to Global and Regional Issues 75 Members of the Associa- know where the people stand on fight for their country, while 27% would not. However, there tion, covering all regions of the these issues. are significant differences by region. At 83% willingness to world, all share the common The usefulness of this mode of pub- fight is highest in the MENA (Middle East North Africa) re- mission to say out loud what lic expression is attested to by the gion while it is lowest in Western Europe (25%). 2015 people think within. fact that every important democra- It is a difficult but yet so grati- cy in the world has now one or more fying mission. competent public opinion research organisation. Jean-Marc Leger Dr. George H. Gallup President Leger Canada February 1981 President WIN/Gallup International VOICE OF THE PEOPLE 2015 WIN/Gallup International Ringstrasse 7, Post Box 149 CH-8603 Schwerzenbach – Zurich, Switzerland Main Tel. +41 (0)44 806 66 50 Fax +41 (0)44 806 66 60 First printing: May 2015 All right reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part by any means whatsoever, whether graphic, electronic or mechanical, is strictly forbidden without the written permission of Gallup Interna- tional Association. Disclaimer: Gallup International Association and its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C. which is no longer a member of Gallup Inter- national Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). For further details see website: www.wingia.com VOICE OF THE PEOPLE 2015 Edited by KANCHO STOYCHEV FOREWORD by Irina Bokova, Director-General of UNESCO The nature of peace is changing before our eyes. Until now, peace had been seen as the opposite of war, but all bets are off now. We used to maintain peace by pre- venting aggression. In the present globalizing world, peace requires much more, and it must start at home, within societies, across regions. How can we sustain this balance? Political leaders are certainly essential, but peace is too important to be entrusted only to them. Each of us has a role – ordinary people across all societies are the guardians of peace. They say that nothing is more volatile than time and public opinion. This is true as long as time and public opinion relate to transient processes. However, if we anal- yse what F. Braudel called “slow processes”, we can see that public opinion plays a central role in our fractured world today. Public opinion polls have developed key mechanisms of democratic societies (“What presidential candidate should I vote for?”) and as well as market economies (“Which product should I buy?”). In an irreversibly globalized world, public opinion is steadily transcending state boundaries. We don’t need sophisticated research techniques to prove this – we need to explore the world as it evolves around us. All major conflicts of the last decades were preceded by a decisive battle to win world public opinion. Likewise, these conflicts were reconciled on the same terrain. Did public opinion take this new role when the world was coming out of the Cold War? It is hard to say because we have not yet had sufficient time to understand fully this sui generis episode in the history of humanity. One hundred years from now, every school learner will know the answer. Until then, we will have to learn to better understand this major new player in our lives – the opinion of people across the world. 5 VOICE OF THE PEOPLE 2015 CONTENT Foreword ................................................................................................................. 5 by Irina Bokova List of Contributors ............................................................................................... 8 I. DOES GLOBAL PUBLIC OPINION EXIST? .......................................14 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 14 By Kancho Stoychev The Globalization of Public Opinion ................................................................ 16 By Marita Carballo Global Public Opinion: A Valid Proxy for the Global ‘Body Politic’ ............ 29 By Doug Miller Analyzing Key Trends in Global Public Opinion............................................ 38 By Richard Wike Thinking About the Who, What and How of Global Public Opinion ........ 45 By David A. Jodice II. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES ..................................................................64 Where Has All the Voters’ Power Gone? .......................................................... 64 By Ivan Krastev When Democracy Fails to Deliver .................................................................... 78 By Ijaz Gilani 6 Content The Disruptive Mindset of Millennials around the Globe ............................. 99 By Pieter Paul Verheggen and Martijn Lampert Religion in the World: the State of Affairs...................................................... 122 By Marita Carballo and Ricardo M. Hermelo III. REGIONAL INSIGHTS ................................................................... 137 The Ground Beneath ISIL’s Feet ...................................................................... 137 By Munqith al-Dagher Tracking Attitudes on Afghanistan’s Transition Trough Pre- and Post-Election Polling ................................................................................................................. 147 By Gary Langer, Matthew Warshaw, Jessica Beaird Latin America Inside Out ................................................................................. 163 By Constanza Cilley Basic Human Values in Post-War Kosovo ..................................................... 179 By Vlora Basha Berisha Media Literacy in Georgia: A Comparison with the European Union ...... 188 By Christopher Anderson IV. Appendix: .......................................................................................... 198 A DECADE AND HALF OF WIN-GIA GLOBAL POLLING (1999-2014) ....................................................................................................... 199 A selection of findings from global surveys conducted since 1999 by the compa- nies associated in WIN-GIA. WIN/GIA Members List .....................................................................................287 7 VOICE OF THE PEOPLE 2015 LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS • Jean-Marc Léger Jean-Marc Léger is an economist and president of the largest Canadian-owned polling, market and socio-economic research firm. After founding the World- wide Independent Network (WIN) of Market Research in 2007, Jean-Marc Leger merged WIN with the Gallup International Association. Mr. Leger presides over WIN/Gallup International, the largest independent market re- search and poling association in the world, with 77 Members, covering 95% of the world’s market and a combined revenue of over €500M. • Irina Bokova Irina Bokova has been Director-General of UNESCO since 15 November 2009, the first woman to lead the Organization. A graduate of the Moscow Institute of International Relations, and postgraduate student at the Univer- sity of Maryland and the John