DRAFT COPY: Not for Public Distribution Toward an Ideal Security State for Northeast Asia 2025 Edited by L. Gordon Flake Toward an Ideal Security State for Northeast Asia 2025 Edited by L. Gordon Flake www.mansfieldfdn.org The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, Washington, D.C. © 2010 by The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation www.mansfieldfdn.org All rights reserved. Published in the United States of America Contributors Ralph A. Cossa, President, Pacific Forum CSIS Wendy Dobson, Professor, University of Toronto Alexis Dudden, Associate Professor, University of Connecticut L. Gordon Flake, Executive Director, The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation Mikkal E. Herberg, Senior Research Fellow for International Energy, Pacific Council on International Policy Sung-han Kim, Professor, Korea University Chang Jae Lee, Director, Center for Regional Economic Studies, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy Akio Morishima, Chair of Board of Directors, Japan Climate Policy Center Cheol Hee Park, Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University Yinhong Shi, Director of the Center for American Studies, Renmin University Hitoshi Tanaka, Senior Fellow, Japan Center for International Exchange Wenzhao Tao, Research Fellow, Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Hugh White, Professor and Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, The Australian National University Noboru Yamaguchi, Lieutenant General JGSDF (Ret.), Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan Daojiong Zha, Professor, Beijing University Contents Preface L. Gordon Flake . 7 The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Regional Economic Integration and the Development of Regional Economic Infrastructure in Northeast Asia Wendy Dobson . .15 Chang Jae Lee . .31 Nationalism, Historical Legacies and Territorial Disputes as Obstacles to Cooperation in Northeast Asia Cheol Hee Park . 45 Alexis Dudden . 53 Exogenous Shocks Such as Terrorism and Pandemics as a Threat to Regional Crisis Management Noboru Yamaguchi . .63 Daojiong Zha . .77 Implications of Climate Change and Energy Security for Regional Integration in Northeast Asia Akio Morishima . .91 Mikkal E. Herberg . 109 Implications of Strategies to Deal with North Korea for Regional Cooperation and Integration Hitoshi Tanaka . 123 Sung-han Kim . 135 The Trajectory and Implications of China’s Continuing Rise for Northeast Asian Regional Integration Hugh White . 145 Yinhong Shi . 161 The Future of the U.S. Role in the Region and Northeast Asian Regional Integration Ralph A. Cossa . 177 Wenzhao Tao . 197 Preface ortheast Asia is often considered to be a “sub-region” of East Asia or Nthe broader Asia-Pacific. In contrast to Europe, North America, or even Southeast Asia, it is characterized by the lack of regional institutions or infrastructure. Yet, Northeast Asia is home to the world’s second and third largest economies, Japan and China, and home to two of the United States’ most important allies in Asia, Japan and South Korea. It also is home to two of the most potentially dangerous unresolved conflicts across the demilitarized zone in Korea and across the Taiwan Straits. Four of the world’s strongest powers, the United States, China, Japan and Russia, have direct interests and involvement in the region. In particular, the United States’ commitment is demonstrated not just in the approximately 100,000 troops and the strong maritime presence that it maintains in the region, but also in the extensive commercial, diplomatic and civil society ties it has with nearly all countries in the region. With the dramatic economic growth of China and the growing leadership role that countries in the region play in a range of regional and global issues—such as climate change, trade liberalization, and anti-terrorism— there is little question that the importance of Northeast Asia is on the rise. As such, the trajectory of the region, and the prospects for a continued peaceful environment in which the process of economic development and regional integration might continue, is of paramount importance to the United States, the countries of Northeast Asia, and ultimately the world. Recognizing these trends, the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, with support from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) 7  through the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and in collaboration with the Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) of the National Academy of Sciences, organized a one- year project designed to identify the “ideal” state of peace and security in Northeast Asia in the year 2025 and further explore issues related to that ideal. The project commenced November 1, 2008 and involved two primary activities, a strategy session in Montana and an international workshop involving experts from throughout the region in Kanazawa, Japan. Strategy Session with Core Group Members A central element of this project was securing the participation of a core group of renowned experts from Asia and the Pacific to assist the project planners in defining the “ideal” security state for Northeast Asia in the year 2025 and then going several steps further to identify and prioritize a list of divergent trends or factors impacting that ideal. This core group of regional experts also helped plan the structure and focus of a July 2009 workshop in Japan and helped identify the most appropriate experts from the region to write the research papers for and participate in that workshop. The initial strategy session for the project was held in Big Fork, Montana on April 30, 2009. In addition to key representatives from the major countries and other stakeholders in the region (China, Korea, Japan, the U.S., Canada, and Australia), the strategy session also included key issue and technical specialists from among the membership of CISAC. Participants in the Montana strategy session included scholars with a broad expertise in the region, an understanding of policy, an ability to think outside of the box, and a known proclivity to actively participate in a strategy/ brainstorming type of meeting. Participants in the Montana meeting included: PaulBernstein, Vice President, Science Applications International • Corporation (SAIC) ChristopherChyba, Professor of Astrophysical Sciences and International • Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School of International Affairs, Princeton University (CISAC) 8 Preface PeterDrysdale, Emeritus Professor of Economics and Visiting Fellow • in Policy and Governance, The Crawford School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University PaulEvans, Director, Program for Canada-Asia Policy Studies, Institute • of Asian Research, University of British Columbia L.GordonFlake, Executive Director, The Maureen and Mike Mansfield • Foundation FunabashiYoichi, Editor-in-Chief, the Asahi Shimbun • DavidHamon, Deputy Director for Research and Studies, Advanced • Systems and Concepts Office (ASCO), Defense Threat Reduction Agency AlastairIainJohnston, Governor James Albert Noe and Linda Noe • Laine Professor of China in World Affairs, Government Department, Harvard University (CISAC) MichaelKeifer, Director, Asia Portfolio, Advanced Systems and Concepts • Office (ASCO), Defense Threat Reduction Agency ,LeeChung-Min, Dean, Graduate School of International Studies • Yonsei University AlanRomberg, Distinguished Fellow, Henry L. Stimson Center • BenjaminRusek, Associate Program Officer, the Committee on • International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) of The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) ZhangYunling, Director of International Studies, China Academy of • Social Sciences During the course of the strategy meeting, participants engaged in a frank and active debate over what might constitute the “ideal” state of peace and security in Northeast Asia in the year 2025. Efforts were then made to refine and tighten the definition of that “ideal” into a single bullet point document listing the characteristics of that “ideal.” The text of the consensus ideal as defined during the course of that meeting appears on page 10. 9  NOTIONAL“IDEAL” SECURITY STATE FOR NORTHEAST ASIA IN 2025 On April 30, 2009, with support from SAIC and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the Mansfield Foundation and the Committee on International Security and Arms Control convened a meeting in Big Fork, Montana in an effort to identify an “ideal” security state for Northeast Asia in the year 2025. While this “ideal” was geographically focused upon Northeast Asia, the discussion incorporated the role and interests of the United States and broader international factors that impact upon the region. A core group of participants from Australia, Canada, China, Japan, Korea and the United States identified the following characteristics as representative of an ideal security state for Northeast Asia in the year 2025: • In the context of regional harmony, all countries are satisfied that their core interests are being respected and that effective mechanisms exist to address other interests as well. • Interaction among states in the region is characterized by “dependable expectation of peaceful change,” on the basis of increasing economic, social and political integration. • The North Korea issue is no longer a source of division and the Korean Peninsula as a whole participates in regional cooperation and economic development. • Northeast Asia has developed an effective framework or an institutional mechanism for addressing and managing security concerns.