The Securitisation of Climate Change in the Australian political-military sector with a comparison to the United States Michael Durant Thomas A thesis in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Humanities and Social Sciences Faculty of UNSW Canberra June 2016 ii THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Thesis/Dissertation Sheet Surname or Family name: Thomas First name: Michael Other name/s: Durant Abbreviation for degree as given in the University calendar: PhD School: School of Humanities and Social Sciences Faculty: UNSW Canberra Title: The securitisation of climate change in the Australian political-military sector with a comparison to the United States Abstract This thesis comparatively examines the process of climate securitisation within the Australian and United States (US) political-military sectors between 2003 – 2013. Drawing on established securitisation frameworks (―Copenhagen‖ and ―Paris‖ Schools), the thesis used a combination of software-assisted techniques and manual qualitative content analysis to systematically analyse more than 3,500 speech-acts and strategic policies. Analysis focused on how the political-military sectors contextually and temporally framed climate change and identified which areas of the political-military bureaucracies were active in their climate response. The research found that the Australian Defence Force (ADF) was not a climate- securitising actor and that its response to climate change was mediated by the heightened politicisation of climate change. Unlike the US, the ADF failed to adopt substantive climate responses and this led to a minimalist climate strategy. The thesis argues that, in Australia, this constituted a strategic blind spot and identified the difficulties of an avowedly apolitical institution responding to a politically partisan security issue. This situation contrasted somewhat with the US, where a similarly divided body politic nevertheless united to legislate for the US military to analyse and prepare for the national security impacts of climate change. Given a degree of bi-partisan political authority to act, the US military undertook sweeping reviews that resulted in climate change becoming more mainstreamed than occurred in the ADF. By 2013, the US military had published a series of prominent climate change documents that represented the cornerstones of a more enduring strategic response. Beyond politics, the US military had other reasons to act beyond the expectations of the ADF. These included: increasing its force-posture in a climate changed Arctic; securing its global network of bases and infrastructure from climate change; and as an opportunity to consolidate its position as the pre-eminent global military power in an era of rapid environmental, socio-political and technological change. Through understanding the process of climate securitisation in the Defence sector, this thesis extends existing securitisation theory, proposes a new methodology for analysing speech-acts and provides a benchmark from which researchers, policy makers and strategic planners might develop more detailed and comprehensive climate responses. Declaration relating to disposition of project thesis/dissertation I hereby grant to the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or in part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all property rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. 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FOR OFFICE USE ONLY Date of completion of requirements for Award: iii Table of Contents Originality, Copyright and Authenticity Statements ................................................................. v Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................... vi Abbreviations and Symbols ..................................................................................................... vii List of Figures ........................................................................................................................... ix List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. x Related Publications and Presentations Arising from This Thesis ........................................... xi Foreword ................................................................................................................................ xiii PART I ....................................................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: Research Gap, Aim and Analytical Framework ...................................................... 2 1.1 Surveying the Research Gap ....................................................................................... 2 1.2 Thesis Aim ................................................................................................................ 13 1.3 Analytical Framework: Securitisation Theory ......................................................... 14 1.4 Thesis Scope .............................................................................................................. 27 1.5 Thesis Structure ......................................................................................................... 29 PART II .................................................................................................................................... 31 LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................ 31 Chapter 2: A Strategic Appreciation of Climate Change ......................................................... 32 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 32 2.2 The Scientific Basis of Global Warming .................................................................. 32 2.3 Anthropogenic Emissions and International Political Response............................... 39 2.4 Chapter Conclusion ................................................................................................... 48 Chapter 3: Climate Security Discourses within Security Studies ............................................ 51 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 51 3.2. A framework of climate security discourse(s) .......................................................... 51 3.3 Climate Security from Traditional (Narrow) Security Perspectives ......................... 54 3.3 Climate Security from Critical (Widening) Security Perspectives ........................... 63 3.4 Chapter Conclusion ................................................................................................... 76 Chapter 4: Climate Security Discourses in Policy ................................................................... 78 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 78 4.2 A General History of Climate Securitisation ............................................................ 79 4.3 Select Review of Climate Securitisation in Policy.................................................... 82 4.4 The Contested Nature of Climate Securitisation ....................................................... 96 iv 4.5 Chapter Conclusion ................................................................................................. 101 PART III ................................................................................................................................ 104 CASE STUDIES IN CLIMATE SECURITISATION .......................................................... 104 Chapter 5: Case Study Method .............................................................................................. 105 Chapter 6: Climate Securitisation in Australia‘s Political and Military Sector ................. 109 6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 109 6.2 The Strategic Level ................................................................................................. 110 6.3 ADF Operational and Tactical Programs ................................................................ 165 Chapter 7: Climate Securitisation in the US Political and Military Sector............................ 188 7.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................