Hindsight, Foresight ThinkingI Aboutnsight, Security in the Indo-Pacific EDITED BY ALEXANDER L. VUVING DANIEL K. INOUYE ASIA-PACIFIC CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES HINDSIGHT, INSIGHT, FORESIGHT HINDSIGHT, INSIGHT, FORESIGHT Thinking About Security in the Indo-Pacific Edited by Alexander L. Vuving Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies Hindsight, Insight, Foresight: Thinking About Security in the Indo-Pacific Published in September 2020 by the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, 2058 Maluhia Rd, Honolulu, HI 96815 (www.apcss.org) For reprint permissions, contact the editors via [email protected] Printed in the United States of America Cover Design by Nelson Gaspar and Debra Castro Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Name: Alexander L. Vuving, editor Title: Hindsight, Insight, Foresight: Thinking About Security in the Indo-Pacific / Vuving, Alexander L., editor Subjects: International Relations; Security, International---Indo-Pacific Region; Geopolitics---Indo-Pacific Region; Indo-Pacific Region JZ1242 .H563 2020 ISBN: 978-0-9773246-6-8 The Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies is a U.S. Depart- ment of Defense executive education institution that addresses regional and global security issues, inviting military and civilian representatives of the United States and Indo-Pacific nations to its comprehensive program of resident courses and workshops, both in Hawaii and throughout the Indo-Pacific region. Through these events the Center provides a focal point where military, policy-makers, and civil society can gather to educate each other on regional issues, connect with a network of committed individuals, and empower themselves to enact cooperative solutions to the region’s security challenges. The views expressed in these chapters are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Hindsight, Insight, Foresight: Thinking About Security in the Indo-Pacific CONTENTS Acknowledgements viii Foreword ix Peter A. Gumataotao Introduction xi Alexander L. Vuving Part I: Understanding the Big Picture 1. Philosophy and Policy: Why Ideas Will Drive the Indo-Pacific 3 Scott D. McDonald 2. Great Power Competition: Lessons from the Past, Implications for the Future 13 Alexander L. Vuving 3. The Fourth Industrial Revolution and Its Discontents: Governance, Big Tech, and the Digitization of Geopolitics 37 Virginia Bacay Watson 4. Surveillance Technology Challenges Political Culture of Democratic States 49 Inez Miyamoto 5. Societal Violence against Women and National Insecurity: The Need for Gendered Security 67 James M. Minnich Part II: The Changing Faces of Regional Security 6. Political Violence in South Asia, 1995-2020 91 Shyam Tekwani 7. Twenty Five Years of Terrorism and Insurgency in Southeast Asia 111 Sam Mullins 8. Inclusive Governance: Lessons from History 129 Saira Yamin 9. The Evolution of the U.S. Alliance System in the Indo-Pacific since the Cold War’s End 145 John Hemmings 10. South Asia and China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Security Implications and Ways Forward 161 Anu Anwar 11. From the Blue Dot Network to the Blue Dot Marketplace: A Way to Cooperate in Strategic Competition 179 Jerre V. Hansbrough 12. Underwater Competition in the Indo-Pacific 191 Mizuho Kajiwara 13. Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fishing and the Impacts on Maritime Security 209 Ben Crowell and Wade Turvold 14. Security Implications of a State-Driven Approach to Science and Technology Innovation 217 Ethan Allen 15. One Hundred Seconds to Midnight 229 Bill Wieninger Part III: Local Dynamics of Regional Security 16. Russia in the Pacific: Strategic Opportunity in the Far East 239 Wade Turvold 17. The Future of the Republic of Korea and United States Alliance: Fix It or Lose It 253 James M. Minnich 18. The Fang-Shou Cycle in Chinese Politics 269 Sungmin Cho 19. Are India and China Destined for War? Three Future Scenarios 283 Srini Sitaraman 20. Has Myanmar Become China’s Back Door to the Indian Ocean? 307 Miemie Winn Byrd 21. Taiwan’s Fight for International Space 317 Michael C. Burgoyne About the Authors 331 Index 339 Hindsight, Insight, Foresight: Thinking about Security in the Indo-Pacific ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This book would not have been possible without the hard work and in- novative ideas of many people. The theme of the book emerged from discussion within the faculty floor of the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. Like most edited volumes, the book relies on the volunteer work of its authors. The editor received numerous useful in- sights from Mike Burgoyne and Scott McDonald, the editors of the most recent DKI APCSS book, China’s Global Influence. The authors worked closely with the editor, Dean Carleton Cramer of the College of Security Studies, and Mary Markovinovic to enhance the quality of their chapters. Mary was also the chief producer of the book, with all the troubles—and joy—of this job. Tami Rosado did the meticulous work of copyediting. Our interns Joshua Turner helped with copyediting, proofreading, and in- dexing; Elizeh Basim and Cidney Hopkins with indexing and proofread- ing; and Mahogany Rasmussen with copyediting. The front and back cov- ers of the book are the creative work of Nelson Gaspar and Debra Castro. Associate Dean Gene Richards, Darren Adams, Toni Difante, Debbie Fikac, Flo Rapozo, Armenio Salaguinto, and Robin Taylor supported in various capacities. The idea of a publication for the 25th anniversary of DKI APCSS was born three years before this book. It was Director Pete Gumataotao who turned it into a reality. viii FOREWORD Rear Admiral Peter A. Gumataotao, USN (Ret) Director, Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies An anniversary is a time for reflection, to appreciate our past, embrace opportunities of the present, and encourage innovation and creative ideas for the future. As the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS) celebrates its 25th anniversary, our faculty mem- bers reflect on the past, weigh the opportunities and challenges of today, and contemplate scenarios for the future. “Hindsight, Insight, Foresight” is the theme of our Center’s 25th anniversary. It also is the title of this book, which is authored by 20 current and former members of DKI APCSS. Knowledge is power and knowledge shared has advanced our mission since the inception of DKI APCSS 25 years ago. Our executive education program, including lectures and seminars from our in-resident courses, as well as our workshop discussions, is enhanced immensely from diverse perspectives. Such collaboration, fostered in a non-attribution en- vironment built on transparency, mutual respect, and inclusion, has pro- duced invaluable foresight for ongoing alliances that further our mission. This book illustrates the agility of the Center to innovatively advance its educational mission toward the future. It also offers an evolutionary per- spective to look at enduring transnational challenges including strategic competition, the rise of China, terrorism, governance, and technology. As Winston Churchill noted, “The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward.”1 Essentially, hindsight and insight enable foresight. Equipped with this perspective, the book sheds light on how different aspects of security have evolved through history and how it may also evolve in the future. Most importantly, it adds an important dimen- sion to better understand the complexity of our security environment and the potential opportunities to develop mutual solutions. I hope you enjoy reading it as much as the Center has enjoyed creating it. 1 Speech, March 1944, quoted in “Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965),” in Oxford Es- sential Quotations, ed. Susan Ratcliff (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016), https:// www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro- ed4-00002969 ix INTRODUCTION Alexander L. Vuving Teaching executive courses at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies is a wonderful way to live two worlds at the same time. The courses must be most relevant to policymakers and they must offer something that the policymakers routinely miss in their everyday work. This something is, as many of our course participants told me, a “10,000 miles above the ground” that permits one to see both the big patterns and the deep structures of the landscape. This dual requirement and the engagement with the course participants, who are security practitioners from around 40 countries in the Indo-Pacific region, place the teaching at DKI APCSS in the interface between the practitioner’s world and the analyst’s world. This book is part of this interface. It provides both an overview of the strategic landscape and insights into the currents that shape this land- scape; it addresses security aspects that are important to the practitioners; and it answers the “so what” question central to the practitioner’s job. To this end, one theme underlies every chapter of this book—the complex- ity of the real world. As the chapters of this book attest, this complexity manifests itself in various ways. One face of the complexity of the social world is embedded in the structure of a situation, which often remains in- visible to the participants and defies linear thinking. The complexity of our world affects every action, choice, and decision we make by giving them multiple orders of effects, many of which may go beyond, even against, our purposes. xi Hindsight, Insight, Foresight: Thinking about Security in the Indo-Pacific What drives an individual, an organization, a nation to fight? “This age-old question warrants a high level of critical thinking due to the unin- tended consequences of decisions. For some, it comes down to believing there’s a threat to their nation’s interests or territorial integrity. For others, it may be deeper than just that … citizens may voluntarily support, even sacrifice, if the “cause” is deemed fundamental beyond material worth.