EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR ELECTORAL SUPPORT ESN - SA ELECTORAL SUPPORT NETWORK IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Democratic Republic of Congo United Republic PREVENTING AND of MITIGATINGTanzania ELECTORAL CONFLICTSeychelles Angola AND VIOLENCEMozambique Zambia Malawi Mauritius Madagascar ZimbabweFabio Bargiacchi, Victoria Florinder Editors Namibia Botswana Kondwani Chirambo, Thibaud Kurtz Co-editors Swaziland South Africa Lesotho Funded 75% by The European Union and 25% by The European Centre for Electoral Support Table of Content FOREWORD 2 PREFACE 7 INTRODUCTION 10 CHAPTER I - ELECTORAL CONFLICT PREVENTION FRAMEWORK 16 Handbook Purpose and Goal 17 Defining Election Related Conflict and Research Framework 19 A Regional Journey About Preventing Electoral Violence 19 Early Warning 28 CHAPTER II - CASE STUDIES 30 Regional SADC and Botswana / Kondwani Chirambo 31 Angola / Celestino Onesimo Setucula 61 Democratic Republic of the Congo / Robert Gerenge 76 Lesotho / Victor Shale 101 Madagascar / Juvence Ramasy 128 Malawi / Henry Chingaipe 148 Mauritius / Catherine Boudet 180 Mozambique / Johanna Nilsson 205 Namibia / Maximilian Weiland 230 South Africa / Dimpho Motsamai 255 Swaziland / Lungile Mnisi 278 United Republic of Tanzania and Zanzibar / Andrew Mushi and Alexander Makulilo 303 Zambia / Lee Habasonda 326 Zimbabwe / Jestina Mukoko 350 CHAPTER III - CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 378 Key Findings for the Region 379 Shared Regional Issues from the Case Studies 379 Regional Issues 382 Unique National Issues with Potential for Regional Focus 382 Conclusions 384 Recommendations 388 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 387 Agenda of the Seminar____________________________________________________________392 BIBLIOGRAPHY 397 ABOUT THE EDITORS AND AUTHORS 426 ABOUT THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR ELECTORAL SUPPORT 437 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 441 Preventing and Mitigating Electoral Conflict and Violence - Lessons from the Southern Africa Preventing and Mitigating Electoral Conflict and Violence - Lessons from the Southern Africa FOREWORD 2 EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR ELECTORAL SUPPORT 3 Preventing and Mitigating Electoral Conflict and Violence - Lessons from the Southern Africa Preventing and Mitigating Electoral Conflict and Violence - Lessons from the Southern Africa Monica Frassoni, President of the Board, European Centre for Electoral Support Foreword This handbook “Preventing and Mitigating Electoral Conflict and Violence: lessons from the Southern Africa” has evolved over four years of ECES work in the SADC region. That said, lessons from other parts of the world where ECES is active has surely contributed to a more holistic understanding of the complex matter of electoral conflict prevention. The handbook was debated and validated during a seminar organised by ECES in collaboration with the Directorate for Democracy Support of the European Parliament and the Election Support Network of Southern Africa. The seminar, entitled “Preventing election related violence: what role for political mediation and dialogue and Launch of ECES’ Election Conflict Prevention Handbook on Southern Africa”, was held on the 12th and 13th of July 2017 at the Hotel Renaissance, Brussels, whereas the last day was held in the European Parliament. It was a follow-up to previous seminars held in the Parliament over the last two years on election conflict prevention. It builds on two key publications of the European Parliament namely “How can the EU support Peaceful Post- Election Transitions of Power: Lessons from Africa1” and “Developing Operational Tools within the EU for a comprehensive approach to prevent electoral violence”2. The recommendations that the handbook has produced has therefore benefitted from discussions at the seminar so that broader conclusions could be drawn, relating also to the work of the European Institutions that historically, and currently, continues to be the largest donor of democracy and electoral support worldwide. As such, this handbook builds on the efforts of the European Union in election conflict prevention coupled with recent lessons from the field, in near all SADC countries. This combination represents unprecedented content gathered in one handbook. The handbook collects case studies from all 14 SADC countries, proposes key recommendations for development partners and offers analyses of the potential and pitfalls of existing conflict prevention mechanisms at both regional and national levels. The seminar was actively chaired by two Members of the European Parliament (MEP) Ms. Judith Sargentini and Mr. Alojz Peterle. Having both played the role of Chief Observers in EU election observation missions, respectively in Mozambique, Tanzania and Kenya, that perspective gave a much valued contribution to the panel, which was composed as well by: • Fabio Bargiacchi, Executive Director, European Centre for Electoral Support (ECES) ; • Riccardo Chelleri, Policy officer for Democracy and Election Observation, European External Action Service; • Canan Gunduz, Mediation Advisor, Conflict Prevention, Peacebuilding and Mediation Division, European External Action Service; • Granville Abrahams, Senior Manager for Electoral Matters Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC); • Victor Shale, Independent Consultant Shalestone Consultants; • Gérard Stoudmann, Senior Diplomatic Advisor and Coordinator Preventive Diplomacy Group, European Institute of Peace; • Sonya Reines-Djivanides, Executive Director, European Peacebuilding Liaison Office (EPLO). The debate was very well attended by a vast audience of important electoral stakeholders from Europe and Africa, including electoral management bodies from South Africa, Lesotho, Mozambique, Burkina Faso, and researchers and electoral experts who took part to ECES activities under PEV-SADC projects framework and beyond. For the 1 http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/note/join/2012/457110/EXPO-AFET_NT(2012)457110_EN.pdf (2012) 2 http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2015/534986/EXPO_STU(2015)534986_EN.pdf (2015). 2 EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR ELECTORAL SUPPORT 3 Preventing and Mitigating Electoral Conflict and Violence - Lessons from the Southern Africa Preventing and Mitigating Electoral Conflict and Violence - Lessons from the Southern Africa sake of opening up a wider debate and allow cross-regional comparisons, representatives from the ECOWAS/ ECONEC network and CAPEL, headquartered in Costa Rica. Embassies from SADC member states were also present. Turning back to the contents of the handbook, the empirical material presented in this handbook is the result of an extensive research exercise carried out by ECES in partnership with the Election Support Network of Southern Africa (ESN-SA). The research took place in the framework of the regional EU-funded project for the prevention of election related violence in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) with a corresponding 25% funding contribution from ECES. Researchers, as well as key electoral stakeholders such as the civil society, electoral management bodies, political parties, media and the judiciary, took part in this unique exercise to delve deeper into the social fabrics of the SADC countries. The research gathered in this handbook is not only useful as a more complex contextual analysis but it also draws attention to the fact that although root causes of electoral conflict may have a similar origin, the various mechanisms built to curb election related violence are numerous and innovative and vary greatly across the SADC. ECES’ mission has been, both within and beyond the context of the regional conflict prevention project (abbreviated PEV-SADC), to revive and empower already existing conflict prevention structures. There are a number of noteworthy peace-infrastructures in the Southern part of Africa, stemming from the liberation struggle all through the end of the apartheid era that, naturally, laid a new socio-political foundation not only for South Africa but also for the entire SADC region. In light of the consolidation of multi-party politics in this vibrant part of the African continent, there are still firmly anchored patronage systems, unequal distribution of wealth and inequalities across near-all SADC countries in one way or the other. The political economy of the SADC - by which we refer to the way politics and access to resources are inextricably linked can, therefore, be used as a predictor for the motives behind trying to manipulate election results, voting behavior and political attitudes, performance of local governments and more - is perhaps the most visible around election time. Many people still do not find the incentive to vote. The reason behind voter apathy in the SADC, as suggested by the research stems from the notion that little is likely to change: either that the incumbent government will find a way to remain in power or that a new government would fail to correct the shortcomings of its predecessors. Many political parties in the SADC started out as part of the liberation army, that once victorious turned into a fully-fledged political party dropping arms. Hence, the people and the political parties that brought political and social freedom are linked in some sort of a reciprocal contract. The so-called “born free” generation that emerged in South Africa to define the youth born after the fall of the apartheid regime is growing to become the majority group not only in South Africa but also elsewhere in the region. This may change the traditional majority support for freedom-fighter parties. Several countries have during recent