CYPRUS GOVERNMENT Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment Department of Environment 20-22 28th Oktovriou Ave, Engomi, 2414, Nicosia, Cyprus Climate Change Risk Assessment Contract No. 22/2014 The Cyprus Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report ADVANCED ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES S.A. G. KARAVOKYRIS & PARTNERS CONSULTING ENGINEERS S.A. Contractors: DION. TOUMAZIS & ASSOCIATES AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS A u g u s t 2016 Climate Change Risk Assessment. Contract No. 22/2014 Approach Report – Annex III Authors, contributors and reviewers • Dr P. S. Kaimaki, Civil Engineer, Environmental Engineer / Project Manager, ADENS SA • Ε. Gkouvatsou, Civil Engineer, MSc, DIC. ADENS SA • Dr N. Fyllas, Mechanical Engineer, PhD in Forest Dynamics/Modelling • Dr A. Chistopoulou, Biologist, PhD in Forest Ecology and Management. ADENS SA • F. Papanousi, Survey Engineer, MSc. ADENS SA • Dr. I.Karavokyris, Civil Engineer-Hydrologist, BSc, MSc, PhD. G. Karavokyris & Partners Consulting Engineers SA • K.Passiou, Civil Engineer, BEng MSc. G. Karavokyris & Partners Consulting Engineers SA Prof. Christos A. Karavitis, Sector of Water Resources Management, Department of Natural Resources Development & Agricultural Engineering, AUA Prof. Consatntinos Kosmas, Laboratory of Soil Science & Agricultural Chemistry, Department of Natural Resources Development & Agricultural Engineering, AUA Prof. Falia Economou, Department of Crop Science, AUA Prof. Ioannis Ppapnikolaou, Laboratory of Geology & Mineralogy, Department of Natural Resources Development & Agricultural Engineering, AUA N. A. Skondras M.Sc. Ph. D, Department of Natural Resources Development & Agricultural Engineering, , AUA V. Paraskeuas, M.Sc. Ph. D., Department of Animal Science and Aquaculture, AUA P.Vasiliou, M.Sc., Laboratory of Soil Science & Agricultural Chemistry, Department of Natural Resources Development & Agricultural Engineering, AUA Dr A. Toumazis, Civil Engineer – Hydraulics, BSc, MSc, DIC, MICE, CEng A.Petrou, BSc Biological Sciences, Msc Aquatic Resource Management Prof. Athena Linos, Athens Medical School and Prolepsis Institute Dr. A.Petralias PhD, Prolepsis Institute Revision Table Version Date Comments v.1 04.08.2016 Initial Version Page i Climate Change Risk Assessment. Contract No. 22/2014 Approach Report – Annex III Abbreviations APSFR Areas of Potentially Significant Flood Risk AROPE At risk of poverty and social exclusion indicator AUA Agricultural University of Athens BCI Beach Climate Index CAMP Coastal Area Management Programme CAP Common Agricultural Policy CAPEX Capital Expenditures CC Climate Change CCRA Climate Change Risk Assessment CDD Cooling Degree Days CTO Cyprus Tourism Organization CYSTAT Statistical Service of Cyprus DFMR Department of Fisheries and Marine Research DMP Drought Management Plan DoE Department of Environment DoF Department of Forests EC European Commission ESA Environmentally Sensitive Areas EU European Union FAO Food & Agriculture Organisation FTTH Fibre-To-The Home FWI Fire Weather Index GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gasses GMI Guaranteed Minimum Income HDD Heating Degree Days IAS Invasive Alien Species IBU International Banking Units ICT Information and Communications Technology IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ktoe Kilotonne of oil equivalent LNG Liquefied Natural Gas MCM Million Cubic Meters Page ii Climate Change Risk Assessment. Contract No. 22/2014 Approach Report – Annex III NBS National Biodiversity Strategy neZEH Nearly Zero Energy Hotels NPP Net Primary Productivity nZEB Nearly Zero Energy Buildings OA Ocean Acidification OPEX Operating Expenses PGA Peak Ground Acceleration PM Particulate matter RES Renewable Energy Sources RCM Regional Climate Model RCP Representative Concentration Pathway (scenarios) SLR Sea Level Rise SPEI Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index SSS Sea Surface Salinity SST Sea Surface Temperature TCI Tourism Climate Index TER Threatened Endangered and Rare (species) THI Temperature Humidity Index UHI Urban Heat Island UK United Kingdom UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC Framework Convention on Climate Change WDD Water Development Department WFD Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC WTP Willingness to Pay Page iii Climate Change Risk Assessment. Contract No. 22/2014 Approach Report – Annex III Contents AUTHORS, CONTRIBUTORS AND REVIEWERS ..................................................................... I REVISION TABLE ................................................................................................................ I ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................... II CONTENTS ...................................................................................................................... IV 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY/INTRODUCTION .................................................................... 1 1.1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................... 1 1.2 Background .......................................................................................................... 4 1.3 The CCRA Framework ............................................................................................ 6 2 CHARACTERISING THE FUTURE .................................................................................. 8 2.1 Climate change scenarios ...................................................................................... 8 2.2 Socio-economic scenarios ................................................................................... 12 2.3 Approach to analysis and understanding risk ....................................................... 18 3. RURAL ECONOMY ................................................................................................... 20 3.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 20 3.2 Livestock production ........................................................................................... 22 3.3 Crop Yield ........................................................................................................... 22 3.4 Irrigation water supply ........................................................................................ 25 3.5 Land suitability ................................................................................................... 30 3.6 Forestry .............................................................................................................. 33 3.7 Adaptive Capacity ............................................................................................... 34 3.8 Summary of risk metrics ...................................................................................... 35 4. NATURAL ENVIRONMENT ....................................................................................... 36 4.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 36 4.2 Changes in distribution of important habitat and species, species unable to find suitable microclimate/habitats or unable to track changing climate space ............ 39 4.3 Major drought events and productivity loss ......................................................... 39 4.4 Increased soil erosion, land desertification, soil moisture deficits and drying ........ 40 4.5 Increased risk of wildfires .................................................................................... 41 4.6 Increased risk from invasive species, pests, pathogens and diseases..................... 42 4.7 Coastal changes due to sea level rise ................................................................... 43 4.8 Agricultural intensification .................................................................................. 43 4.10 Adaptive capacity ............................................................................................... 44 4.11 Evidence gaps ..................................................................................................... 45 4.12 Summary of risk metrics ...................................................................................... 46 5. BUILT ENVIRONMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE ............................................................. 47 5.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 47 5.2 Interdependencies .............................................................................................. 50 5.3 Adaptive Capacity ............................................................................................... 51 5.4 Buildings ............................................................................................................. 53 5.5 Urban Environment ............................................................................................. 54 5.4 Energy ................................................................................................................ 56 5.6 Transport ............................................................................................................ 61 5.6.1 General .................................................................................................................... 61 5.6.2 Road transport ......................................................................................................... 63 5.6.3 Air transport ...........................................................................................................