_________________________________________________________________________Swansea University E-Theses ‘One Chance in a Thousand’: The Mission of Sumner Welles to Europe (Feb-Mar 1940), Rooseveltian Foreign Policy and Anglo- American Relations Nov 1937- May 1940 Rofe, J. Simon How to cite: _________________________________________________________________________ Rofe, J. Simon (2005) ‘One Chance in a Thousand’: The Mission of Sumner Welles to Europe (Feb-Mar 1940), Rooseveltian Foreign Policy and Anglo-American Relations Nov 1937- May 1940. Doctoral thesis, Swansea University. http://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa51060 Use policy: _________________________________________________________________________ This item is brought to you by Swansea University. 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Please link to the metadata record in the Swansea University repository, Cronfa (link given in the citation reference above.) http://www.swansea.ac.uk/library/researchsupport/ris-support/ ‘One Chance in a Thousand’: The Mission of Sumner Welles to Europe (Feb-Mar 1940), Rooseveltian Foreign Policy and Anglo-American Relations Nov 1937- May 1940. By J. Simon Rofe Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of the University of Wales September 2004 LIBRARY IMAGING SERVICES NORTH HSiliya Boston Spa, Wetherby West Yorkshire, LS23 7BQ www.bl.uk THE FOLLOWING ITEMS HAVE BEEN EXCLUDED UNDER INSTRUCTION FROM THE UNIVERSITY APPENDICES 1, 2, 3 AND 4 Pages 252-255 Abstract This work presents a new analysis of the mission undertaken by Under Secretary of State Sumner Welles to Europe on behalf of President Roosevelt in February-March 1940. The thesis asks what Roosevelt’s motivations were for undertaking the mission, and what he sought to achieve from it. It considers that the Welles mission was an expression of a number of influences upon Roosevelt that date back to late 1937. These influences, or themes, which provide the broader context and run throughout the period up to the beginning of 1940, are as follows: firstly the integral role in Rooseveltian foreign policy played by Sumner Welles is considered. The second theme concerns the position of his superior, Secretary of State Cordell Hull, who was to counsel caution in the face of an increasingly serious world situation, whilst a third influence was the limits upon American foreign policymaking itself. The last element to be considered throughout this study is the influence of Anglo- American relations upon the Welles mission. Further, these themes are not distinct and are interrelated. And all were subject to the influence of an American public who were deeply interested in, but firmly against intervention in, European affairs. This work concludes that the mission that resulted developed multiple objectives after being bom out of a discussion between Roosevelt and Welles on the role the United States could play in achieving a sound and lasting peace in Europe. Such a hope, reckoned by Roosevelt to be ‘one chance in a thousand’, was at the outset incongruous with the situation in Europe. Roosevelt and Welles knew this to be the case, and pressed ahead because of the existence of other objectives that such a mission could achieve. These were the gathering of first-hand information by Welles from the four capitals of Europe, the perpetuation of Italian neutrality and the prolonging of the ‘phony war’. These objectives were never clarified by the protagonists and evolved in themselves through the deployment of the mission, thus requiring the analysis provided here. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Throughout my time as his student I would like to thank Alan Dobson for his expertise and professionalism. He has proved an invaluable mentor. Further thanks must go to my secondary supervisor, Mike Simpson, whose initial enthusiasm instilled an ambition to work in Swansea. Although I have Alan and Mike to thank for their expert opinions a number of other people who have read my work have provided invaluable suggestions: Mark Evans, Hans Krabbendam, Jacqueline Dix and Richard Asquith. At various points, unbeknowingly and in no particular order, academic inspiration has been instilled by the following: David Knight, Patricia Clavin, David Adams, and Andrew Williams. I am grateful to David Woolner, the Executive Director of the Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt Institute (FERI) for providing generous support to my research at the Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library where I was ably assisted by archivist, Bob Clark. Elsewhere in the United States, my research was supported by the staff at the National Archives, Washington DC, and the Bancroft Library, University of California, Berkeley. I would also like thank the Roosevelt Study Center (Middelburg, the Netherlands) for the award of a grant which enabled me to utilise their resources in the spring of 1999. In the United Kingdom special thanks must go to all those who over many trips helped my research at the Public Record Office. Further grateful thanks is passed on to the staff at Special Collections Division at the University of Birmingham Library, at the Borthwick Institute at the University of York, and the Churchill Archive Centre, Churchill College, Cambridge. My experience of these archives was pleasurable and informative. For emotional support and perspective, Caroline has always been there. My family and friends who have sought to ask questions and prompt answers must be thanked also. My final words are for my grandparents, my grandfather in particular, without whose trust none of this would have been possible. ‘Study hard, the rest will take care of itself Summer 1989, Hamsa TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract Acknowledgement Chapters Page Introduction: The Mission of Sumner Welles to Europe (Feb-Mar 1940), Rooseveltian Foreign Policy and an Anglo-American Relations 1 1. Rooseveltian Foreign Policy-making and Anglo-American relations in 1938 and 1939 - Relationships in the Making 16 2. War & Peace - Rooseveltian Foreign Policy and the ‘phony war’: ‘...like spectators at a footballmatch’ 63 3. ‘Wishing Welles’: The Immediate Origins of the Welles Mission, January and February 1940 101 4. Hope, Despair, Friends - Welles in Rome, Berlin and Paris 17 February - 12 March 1940 142 5. ‘The Grass Snake’ arrives - Welles in London 10 March - 13 March 1940 173 6. Increasingly Forlorn:Welles heads home via Rome 206 7. The Welles Mission: A Short-term Legacy to the Anglo-American Relationship and Rooseveltian Foreign Policy 231 Appendices 252 Bibliography 256 Introduction INTRODUCTION The Mission of Sumner Welles to Europe (Feb-Mar 1940), Rooseveltian Foreign Policy and an Anglo-American Relations Nov 1937- May 1940 In February and March of 1940 Sumner Welles, the United States Under Secretary of State, visited four European capitals to speak with the leaderships of Italy, Germany, France and Great Britain. Fie was undertaking a mission that he and President Franklin Roosevelt had conceived at the turn of the year. It took place during the period known as the "phony war', when a lack of actual fighting on the Western Front seemed to provide a moment to take stock before the expected onslaught in the spring. The motivations behind, and the objectives of, the mission are the focus of this thesis. Neither Welles nor Roosevelt ever provided a complete account of their thinking about it. Purity of intention with regard to the Welles mission, as with much else in Roosevelt's foreign policy, is illusory. The Welles mission can only be understood if the longer-term themes that made it possible are considered alongside the objectives that both Roosevelt and Welles sought from it. For the first time this work will provide a comprehensive explanation that draws upon archival research and published primary sources, alongside the relevant secondary literature, by looking at the thoughts and actions of the key protagonists. The mission has previously been characterised as a failed attempt at an outright American 'peace' move during the hiatus of the "phony war'. The most extensive account to date was produced in the Journal of American History (1971- 1972) by Stanley Hilton. He suggests that the mission was designed to ‘bolster the position of the Allies by weakening the Rome-Berlin Axis and delaying the spring clash'.1 He dismisses too readily the exploration of peace that Roosevelt and Welles considered at the mission's genesis. While providing a worthy analysis it does not go far enough in considering the broader motivations or the other objectives involved in Roosevelt's decision, and thus does not create sufficient context for a thorough examination of Welles' mission. In addressing this gap in the current literature, this thesis can claim its originality in three areas. The first is in the nature of the approach this work takes to understanding the Welles mission. The central question of this thesis is: what was 1 Stanley Hilton, ‘The Welles Mission to Europe, February-March 1940: Illusion or Reality?" The Journal o f American History’ 1971-72 58. p.94. 1 Introduction Roosevelt's motivation for undertaking the mission, and what did he seek to achieve from it? Posing this question in such a way allows for a broader understanding to be reached which moves beyond the mission merely being considered as Roosevelt naively probing for peace. Further, this approach provides a suitable analytical framework for the investigation of the ‘themes' that this thesis considers imperative to understanding the context behind the Welles mission in the period 1937-1940.