Journal of Ecological Engineering Received: 2019.05.16 Revised: 2019.05.30 Volume 20, Issue 7, July 2019, pages 187–195 Accepted: 2019.06.12 Available online: 2019.06.22 https://doi.org/10.12911/22998993/109880 Extreme Hydrological Phenomena in the Esil River Basin: Genesis, General Patterns of Manifestation Petr Andreevich Plekhanov1, Nadira Nusupkyzy Medeu1* 1 Institute of Geography, 050010, Almaty, Kazakhstan * Corresponding author’s e-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT The research subject involves dangerous hydrological phenomena (floods) in the Esil River Basin (Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions). The aim set by the authors was to improve the theoretical knowledge about floods and inundations, in order to contribute to solving the general problem of ensuring the safety of the territories in the Esil Water Management Basin (WMB) against harmful effects of water. In Kazakhstan, floods are caused by almost all known causes in the world: in most of the country – spring floods, the high-intensity rainfall. Addition- ally, there were cases when floods occurred as a result of dam failures (e.g. in the case of the Kyzylagash village in the Almaty region). Annually, the damage caused by floods throughout Kazakhstan amounts to several tens of billions of tenge. The predicted increase in air temperature and precipitation, coupled with the intensive develop- ment of farmland river valleys, will undoubtedly lead to the increase in the frequency and destructive power of floods. Therefore, developing a set of measures to prevent and protect against floods constitutes an urgent task. These measures will significantly reduce the expenses for the liquidation of the flood effects. The data on extreme hydrological phenomena (EHP) in the Esil River basin were collected and systematized. The conditions for the formation of high floods on the rivers of the researched region were studied. Various “typical” scenarios of the formation of dangerous and catastrophic floods were presented. The periods of passage of snow-melt floods (high floods) and other regularities of the intra-annual water regime in the Esil river basin were determined. Keywords: inundation, floods, snow-melt floods, flood control, maximum flow, factors and conditions of occur- rence of floods, air temperature and precipitation INTRODUCTION improvement of the state management system in this area”, 2005; Plekhanov, Rajushkin, 2011). Floods in Kazakhstan occur almost annually The gravity of the situation is evidenced, for ex- in many basins and have a significant adverse ample, by the catastrophe that occurred in March effect on human settlements, industrial facili- 2010 on the insignificant Kyzylzhar river in the ties and infrastructure, agriculture, natural land- Almaty region. As a result of the dam failures at scapes; they are often accompanied by loss of the spring flood, then 45 people died, over a thou- life. In Kazakhstan, the situation is disappoint- sand families suffered, and the total damage was ing. On the one hand the average of maximum estimated at a minimum of $100 million (Plekha- flow discharges decreased 1.5-3 times (Resourc- nov, Rajushkin, 2011). According to expert esti- es of river flow of Kazakhstan, 2012). By 2006, mates of the Emergency Situations Committee of there were 653 hydrological technical facilities the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of (HTF) in the republic, 268 of which, including Kazakhstan, floods rank second after earthquakes 28 large ones, needed major repairs. The average in the Disaster Risk Profile of the Republic of Ka- actual wear in water facilities is 60% (Decree of zakhstan (Plan of preparedness of the Republic the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan of Kazakhstan for natural emergencies, 2015). “On the concept of prevention and liquidation of In some years, huge areas are exposed to floods natural and man-made emergency situations and in the river basins of the Republic, at least 918 187 Journal of Ecological Engineering Vol. 20(7), 2019 localities with a total population of over 5 million all flood prevention factors, and it is the main pri- people are affected directly. ority of integrated water and land management The causes of floods in the republic in various (Yuldashev, 2010; Xu et al., 2002). India is one of regions are heavy and prolonged rains, intense the most flood-prone countries in the world after melting of snow cover on the plains, failure of Bangladesh, and they are fairly common through- lakes and reservoirs, water surge on large bodies out the country (Singh, Kumar, 2017). Historical of water, flood ice, ice jams on rivers, etc. (Ku- records indicate the high vulnerability of North- sainov, 2015; Warning of an emergency situation western Algeria to floods, where more than 130 during the spring flood period, 2012). One of the floods occurred, some of which were catastrophic ways of floods control in the United States is the (Sardou et al., 2018). water drain. Currently, the USA flood protection policy is based on the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP): identification and mapping of EXPOSURE OF THE ESIL RIVER BASIN flood-prone areas; control over the implementa- TO THE INUNDATION AND FLOODS tion of standards and rules for the use of flood haz- ard areas; flood insurance (National Flood Poli- Data on extreme hydrological phenomena cies and Programs in Review, 2007; Shalikovsky, (the EHP) in the Esil river basin. 2009). In 2007, due to the significant damage The Esil river basin is located in the central caused by floods, the European Parliament adopt- and northern parts of Kazakhstan in the Karagan- ed the “European Union Directive 2007/60 / EU da region (the headwaters, the Akmola and North on flood risk assessment and management”. Its Kazakhstan regions (upper and middle flow). goal is to reduce the negative effects of floods on Specific, albeit fragmentary data pertaining to the the human health, environment, cultural heritage extreme hydrological phenomena from various and economic activity through the introduction of sources in the Esil river basin have been available flood risk management (Directive 2007/60/EC, only since the 1940s. A fragment of the physio- 2007; Connelly et al., 2015; Harvey, Hall, Man- graphic map of the Esil river basin is presented ning, 2014). In Holland, it includes timely warn- in Figure 1. ing, prevention and dissemination of information Targeted registration of the facts of extreme about the nature and risks of floods. Continuous hydrological phenomena (EHP), including the water management in China, in accordance with floods in the Esil Basin was first started by the laws and regulations, flood control work is carried efforts of the Kazakh Hydro-meteorological Ser- out according to the principle of holistic planning, vice only in the mid-1960s. Since 1992, the facts creating intensive plans and taking into account about dangerous hydrological phenomena have Figure 1. Fragment of the physiographic map of the r. Esil (National Atlas of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2010) 188 Journal of Ecological Engineering Vol. 20(7), 2019 also been recorded by the newly created territorial 1) for the study period (1940-2018) in 78 divisions of the State Committee on Emergency years in the Esil river basin, 33 years were Situations in their departmental database. To date, noted with increased water content (or 42%) the Esil river basin has collected the information and 45 years (or 58%) with low water content from all known sources on 41 cases of EHP from (in accordance with Figure 2). 1940 to 2018. The EHP data are not unified, and 2) for the period from 1940 to the present, 41 it is impossible to make detailed statistical gen- instances of inundation of the area (including eralizations about the risks of these phenomena floods) during 30 annual periods were docu- from these data (Plekhanov, Schoenberger, Me- mented, including 20 annual periods of inun- deu, 2018). However, some conclusions about the dation in the years with high water content and susceptibility of the studied basin to floods and in 10 periods – in the years with low water other dangerous hydrological phenomena can content. That means that apparently only two- still be drawn. thirds of the recorded floods occurred due to the increased water content. General patterns of EHP: 3) the average annual probability (danger) of • the main causes of EHP are: floods in the Esil river basin is about 53%, that 1) high spring floods – 35 cases (85%); is, floods in the past 8 decades on average oc- 2) dam failure of seasonal ponds – 3 cases cur every two years. Moreover, in the last 4 (7%); decades, inundation in the Esil basin has be- 3) increased discharges from reservoirs – 2 come more frequent and occurs in from 7 to cases (5%); 12 times every decade. 4) heavy rainfall during the period of snow- melt – 1 case (3%). The information presented in Table 1 is un- • terms of EHP occurrence: doubtedly incomplete, nevertheless, even in this 1) March (end) – 3 cases (7%); quantity, it indicates that inundations and floods 2) April – 35 cases (85%); are one of the most important elements of the hy- 3) May (beginning) – 1 case (3%); drological regime of the river of Esil river basin. 4) June - (end) – 1 case (3%). • consequences of EHP: 1) there were 15 cases of EHP (37%) with the STUDY OF THE CONDITIONS OF THE damage in the form of flooding of residential FLOOD FORMATION ON THE RIVERS buildings, agricultural lands, and infrastruc- OF THE REGION UNDER RESEARCH ture facilities. However, there is no informa- tion about the damages in nominal terms. The conditions of the spring flood forma- • long-term characteristics of conditions for the tion should be understood as real time intercon- occurrence of EHP: nected systems of the existing runoff factors in Table 1. Information on the susceptibility of the Esil River Basin to inundations and floods in the period from 1941 to 2018 1 1 1941-1950 1951-1960 1 1 1 1* 1961-1970 1971-1980 1* 1 1* 1* 1 1 1* 1 2** 3 2 3 1 1981-1990 1991-2000 1 1 1 1 2* 1* 1* 3* 1* 2* 2* 2001-2010 2011-2020 - years with high water content N - number of recorded floods * – year with dangerously high floods; ** – year with catastrophic floods.