The View | From the University of Vermont July 17, 2008 Text Size: Sm | Med | Lg Model Earth An Enriching Experience The streets of Southeast Washington, D.C., where Sept. 4 and 5. 8 a.m. to Darrion Willis grew up, 5 p.m. Board of aren’t unlike the ones Trustees Meetings. Reggie Carter Davis Center Fourth experienced as a kid in Floor. Information, Baltimore. The crime schedule. rates are high, poverty is an unfortunate reality for many residents and the Sept. 6. 9 a.m. Historic chances of attending Tour of UVM. college are slim. Willis Information, and Carter, academically registration. Tour accomplished students begins at Ira Allen who beat the odds, are statue, Main Green. attending UVM this fall, Tour runs Saturdays, The Amazon Basin is one of several regions MIMES and the Summer through Oct. 11. scientists are using to help test and calibrate their Enrichment Scholars model of Earth's ecosystems. (Photo: Azur Program is helping them . 9 a.m. to noon. Moulaert) — and 15 other first- Sept. 6 year students — Leaf Casting acclimate to a new Workshop. Create your environment before the own natural objects of Human life benefits from models. Take semester begins. art with leaf casts of two examples: the weather forecast and your favorite large- leaf plant. $20. UVM the highway map. Both of these models Deep in the Souls Horticultural Research Center. Information, select one slice of the planet’s boggling of Carrots If Michael registration: (802) 864- complexity and use it to allow informed Pollan was hungry to deliver his message 3073. guesses about the future. But what about about the inevitable links between what we eat, land use? To what model should a land Sept. 8. 10 a.m. to 4:30 sustainable agriculture, manager or government scientist turn p.m. Student Art climate change and Exhibit. Work will be when trying to weigh the economic value health, he came to the on display through right church. Ira Allen of, say, conserving a forest versus cutting Sept. 19. Colburn Chapel was packed with Gallery, Williams Hall. it for a new housing project? believers; overflow 656-2014. seating was beyond capacity. This despite crazy heat and a tornado Sept. 9. Noon to 2 p.m. warning. Community-University Partnerships and Service-Learning Open House. Learn about the programs and services that CUPS provides to faculty, community members, and McClure Donates $5 Million to Launch students. North Lounge, Billings. Center on Aging at UVM Information: 656- 0095. Blackboard Replaces WebCT as New Online Course Management System Free Al Fresco Film and Music Continues Water-Inspired Art, Quilts on View at the Fleming http://www.uvm.edu/theview/ (1 of 2)9/3/08 1:46 PM Model Earth : UVM The View July 17, 2008 Model Earth Text Size: Sm | Md | Lg By Joshua Brown Article published July 16, 2008 CURRENT FEATURES Human life benefits from models. Take An Enriching Experience The streets of Southeast two examples: the Washington, D.C., where weather forecast and Darrion Willis grew up, aren’t unlike the ones Reggie the highway map. Carter experienced as a kid Both of these models in Baltimore. The crime rates are high, poverty is an select one slice of unfortunate reality for many the planet’s boggling residents and the chances of attending college are slim. complexity — the Willis and Carter, atmosphere, the academically accomplished The Amazon Basin is one of several regions MIMES students who beat the odds, scientists are using to help test and calibrate their major roads — and are attending UVM this fall, model of Earth's ecosystems. (Photo: Azur Moulaert) use it to allow and the Summer Enrichment Scholars Program is helping informed guesses them — and 15 other first- about the future. year students — acclimate to a new environment before Rain this afternoon; better to fix the leaky roof than mow hay. Route the semester begins. 7 looks the fastest route to Shelburne. Deep in the Souls of Carrots As anyone who has planned a picnic or road trip knows, these If Michael Pollan was hungry to deliver his message about models are sometimes wrong. But mostly they are right, or pretty the inevitable links between close. We find them useful and go back to them time after time to what we eat, sustainable agriculture, climate change help us make decisions. and health, he came to the right church. Ira Allen Chapel was packed with believers; But what about land use? To what model should a land manager or overflow seating was beyond government scientist turn when trying to weigh the economic value capacity. This despite crazy heat and a tornado warning. of, say, conserving a forest versus cutting it for a new housing project? Roelof Boumans, Robert Costanza and their colleagues at UVM’s Gund Institute for Ecological Economics and around the world are building a new computer model that aims to fill this need. The MIMES project (for multiscale integrated models of ecosystem services) has some of the qualities of a weather forecast, some of a highway map. Its scope — the whole planet — is breathtaking, but they believe it will be as useful as these other models. Since 1997, when Costanza’s paper in Nature placed the value of earth’s ecosystem services — like crop pollination, water purification, and soil creation — at $33 trillion per year, there has been growing interest in ways to put a dollar value on what had previously been consider "free" or "external" to the economy. And http://www.uvm.edu/theview/article.php?id=2726 (1 of 3)9/3/08 1:46 PM Model Earth : UVM The View the science of ecosystem services has exploded over this decade. But how to apply general ideas of, for example, the dollars-per-acre value of wetlands — for flood control and soil conservation — to specific wetlands along the Mississippi River hasn’t been easy. And how the local dynamics of a particular wetland fit into the hydrology and value of the whole river has been even more difficult. MIMES aims to change that. The eco in economics "The main purpose of the MIMES model is to get a platform for people to be able to quickly see the tradeoffs in specific land use changes and choices," says Boumans, "and how these choices play out at multiple scales," from the watershed to the nation to the globe. "This is not an academic exercise," Boumans says, "it’s practical." The US Environmental Protection Agency agrees. UVM and the EPA entered into a new partnership this week to make the MIMES model available to the agency as it explores the benefits people receive from ecosystems in four regions of the United States. "A skilled user can use our model to look at any place in the world, at any scale," says Azur Moulaert, the MIMES project manager. It gives them "an integrated picture of the value of ecosystems in their area," he says, and how these services connect to human welfare. "Every place has an ideal land use," he says — and the value of that use, compared to others, can be expressed in dollars. Many policy makers are becoming increasingly clear that ecosystem services — in an era of climate change, rapid deforestation, and a global water crisis — must be addressed within economic decision- making. Consider Louisiana. The wealth and jobs created by the development of the Gulf Coast over the last 50 years must be placed in the ledger book against the added damage Hurricane Katrina brought because coastal wetlands have been destroyed. "We have the baseline data to predict that if we do nothing to restore New Orleans wetlands, we’re going to have another flood,” says Moulaert. That’s how MIMES is like a weather forecast. And the MIMES model can estimate the cost of different choices—different routes: doing nothing will likely lead to greater cost down the road while rebuilding wetlands "aggressively or moderately," he says, will ultimately be cheaper. That’s how MIMES is like a roadmap. Collecting data, calibrating the tool To build the MIMES model, experts on nutrient cycling, biodiversity, water supply, waste treatment, soil formation — and many other http://www.uvm.edu/theview/article.php?id=2726 (2 of 3)9/3/08 1:46 PM Model Earth : UVM The View areas — have been gathering in Burlington over the last few years and communicating between universities and agencies in Brazil, Germany, the Netherlands, Philippines and the United States. Funded by the Moore Foundation, MIMES has been compiled from many types of information ranging from general formulas about rates of erosion to climate change models to satellite data. Then to test and calibrate the model, the MIMES scientists have been partnering with universities and other institutions in locations that already have substantial amounts of data about their regional and local ecosystem services — including regions of the Pacific Northwest and the Amazon Basin. For one of these calibration efforts, the University of Campinas in Sao Paulo, Brazil invited UVM researchers Azur Moulaert and Karim Chichakly to join them in a data gathering expedition last December. As one of several case studies they are developing for MIMES, they flew deep into the virgin jungle and proceeded to navigate 800 miles down the Purus River, a tributary of the Amazon, gathering information about water quality, fishing practices and road-building. "MIMES will allow us to take the data collected and translate that into some kind of advantage or disadvantage to the local population or any population," says Boumans. "People there want to build this road; they see it as an economic benefit.