Emissions, Meteorological Data, and Air Pollutant Monitoring for Alaska’s North Slope prepared for Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation Division of Air Quality 410 Willoughby Ave., Suite 303 Juneau, AK 99811-1800 Contract Number 18-6004-17 Notice to Proceed 18-6004-17-30B prepared by MACTEC Engineering & Consulting Research Triangle Park, NC December 21, 2011 North Slope Energy Assessment December 21, 2011 This page intentionally left blank i North Slope Energy Assessment December 21, 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................ ii LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... iv LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................ v ABBREVIATIONS / ACRONYMS.............................................................................................. vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... ES-1 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 1-4 2. OVERVIEW OF NORTH SLOPE ........................................................................................ 2-1 2.1 GEOGRAPHY .............................................................................................................. 2-1 2.2 COMMUNITIES – POPULATION AND ECONOMY ............................................... 2-2 2.3 FEDERAL LANDS....................................................................................................... 2-4 2.4 OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY ........................................................................................ 2-6 2.5 CLIMATOLOGY .......................................................................................................... 2-8 2.6 AIR QUALITY ........................................................................................................... 2-11 2.7 VEGETATION ........................................................................................................... 2-13 2.8 WILDLIFE .................................................................................................................. 2-13 2.9 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 2-14 3. AIR QUALITY MODELS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................. 3-1 3.1 TYPES OF MODELS AND APPLICABILITY ........................................................... 3-1 3.1.1. Screening Models................................................................................................. 3-1 3.1.2. Refined Models .................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1.3. Photochemical Grid Models ................................................................................ 3-2 3.1.4. Coastal Process Models ....................................................................................... 3-3 3.1.5. Other Models ....................................................................................................... 3-3 3.1.6. Additional Model Considerations ........................................................................ 3-3 3.2 EXISTING MODELS FOR THE NORTH SLOPE AND RECOMMENDATIONS .. 3-4 3.2.1. Screening Models................................................................................................. 3-6 3.2.2. Refined Models .................................................................................................... 3-6 ii North Slope Energy Assessment December 21, 2011 3.2.3. Regional Photochemical Grid Models ............................................................... 3-12 3.2.4. Recommendations .............................................................................................. 3-14 3.3 SUMMARY OF MODEL INPUT REQUIREMENTS FOR RECOMMENDED MODELS .................................................................................................................... 3-15 3.3.1. Near Field - AERMOD ...................................................................................... 3-15 3.3.2. Far Field/Regional - CALPUFF ......................................................................... 3-18 3.3.3. Photochemical Grid – CMAQ or CAMx ........................................................... 3-19 3.4 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 3-22 4. EMISSION SOURCES/SOURCE CHARACTERISTICS ON THE NORTH SLOPE ........ 4-1 4.1 POLLUTANTS OF INTEREST ................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 SOURCE ACTIVITIES PRODUCING POLLUTION ................................................ 4-3 4.2.1. Industrial Point Sources ....................................................................................... 4-9 4.3 DATA GAPS............................................................................................................... 4-16 4.4 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 4-20 5. METEOROLOGY ON THE NORTH SLOPE...................................................................... 5-1 5.1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND OTHER HOURLY DATA ...................... 5-1 5.2 SITE-SPECIFIC METEOROLOGY............................................................................. 5-4 5.2.1. MMS Nearshore Meteorological Monitoring Project .......................................... 5-4 5.2.2. Data Collection by Industry ................................................................................. 5-7 5.3 GRIDDED METEOROLOGICAL DATA ................................................................. 5-12 5.4 METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ON THE NORTH SLOPE ......................... 5-13 5.5 DATA GAPS IN NORTH SLOPE METEOROLOGY AND FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS .................................................................................................. 5-16 5.6 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 5-18 6. AMBIENT MONITORING ON THE NORTH SLOPE ....................................................... 6-1 6.1 DATA GAPS AND FILL PROCEDURES .................................................................. 6-4 6.2 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 6-6 APPENDIX A ............................................................................................................................. A-1 APPENDIX B ............................................................................................................................. B-1 APPENDIX C ............................................................................................................................. C-1 iii North Slope Energy Assessment December 21, 2011 LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1: Overview of Air Quality Model Characteristics (Memorandum of Understanding, June 2011) ........................................................................................ 3-5 Table 4.1: Health and Environmental Impacts of Pollutants and Regulatory Activities ............. 4-2 Table 4.2: NEI2008 Emission Summary for the North Slope Borough ...................................... 4-7 Table 4.3: Comparison of NEI2008 and ADEC Rural Communities Inventories for the North Slope Borough (Excludes Point Sources, Commercial Marine and Aviation) .................................................................................................................... 4-8 Table 4.4: Permitted Facilities Located in the North Slope Borough, Grouped by Source Type, Sorted by Total PTE ...................................................................................... 4-12 Table 4.5: Non-major Sources with Total PTE Greater Than 200 Tons Per Year .................... 4-19 Table 5.1: Surface Meteorological Data Available from the National Climatic Data Center ......................................................................................................................... 5-2 Table 5.2: Meteorological Monitoring Sites in MMS Report (from MMS, 2007) ...................... 5-5 Table 5.3: Site-specific Meteorological Data Collected or Used By Private Industry ................ 5-9 Table 5.4: Summary of the Historical Use of AERMOD-ready Meteorological Data Files ..... 5-11 Table 6.1: North Slope Ambient Monitoring Stations and Highest Measured Concentrations in micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m3) ........................................... 6-2 Table A.1: Bibliography of Potential Data Sources for the North Slope .................................... A-3 Table B.1: June 2011 Memorandum of Understanding, Appendix Table A .............................. B-3 Table B.2: June 2011 Memorandum of Understanding, Appendix Table B .............................. B-4 Table C.1: Data Gaps in the ADEC Emission Inventory for Major Sources on the North Slope ..........................................................................................................................C-3 iv North Slope Energy Assessment