S. HRG. 100-603 OMB PROPOSAL FOR SEVERE CUTS IN THE 1990 CENSUS HEARING BEFORE THE JOINT ECONOMIC COMlMI[TTEE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES ONE HUNDREDTH CONGRESS Ior FIRST SESSION AUGUST 7, 1987 Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 80-285 WASHINGTON: 1988 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, Congressional Sales Office U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington. DC 20402 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITIEE [Created pursuant to sec. 5ia) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress] SENATE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Chairman Vice Chairman WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS, California LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin EDWARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts JAMES H. SCHEUER, New York JOHN MELCHER, Montana FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK, California JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico STEPHEN J. SOLARZ, New York WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR., Delaware CHALMERS P. WYLIE, Ohio STEVE SYMMS, Idaho OLYMPIA J. SNOWE, Maine ALFONSE M. D'AMATO, New York HAMILTON FISH, JR., New York PETE WIUSON, California J. ALEX McMLLLAN, North Carolina JuDmr DAVISON, Executive Director RicHARD F KAUFMAN, General Counsel STEPHEN QuicK, Chief Economist ROBERT J. TosrmiuD, Minority Assistant Director (n) CONTENTS WITNESSES AND STATEMENTS FRIDAY, AUGUST 7, 1987 Page Sarbanes, Hon. Paul S., chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement....................................................................................................................... 1 McMillan, Hon. J. Alex, member of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement....................................................................................................................... 339 Melcher, Hon. John, member of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement....................................................................................................................... 344 Scheuer, Hon. James H., member of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement....................................................................................................................... 344 Dymally, Hon. Mervyn M., a U.S. Representative in Congress from the 31st Congressional District of the State of California: Opening statement ............... 345 Gramm, Wendy Lee, Administrator, Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, Office of Management and Budget, Executive Office of the Presi- dent ........................................................... 350 Duncan, Joseph W., corporate economist and chief statistician, Dun & Brad- street Corp .............. .............................................. 383 VanWingen, Rachel Senner, government documents librarian, Georgetown University, on behalf of the American Library Association ................................ 398 Canner, Michael S., staff vice president for economics and housing policy, National Association of Home Builders ........................................................... 408 Schechter, Henry B., director, Office of Housing and Monetary Policy, AFL- CIO .................................................................................................................................. 416 Keeton, Hon. Ruth, council member, Howard County, MD, on behalf of the National Association of Counties ........................................................... 429 Jackson, Hon. Michael, council member, Alexandria, VA, on behalf of the National League of Cities .443 Chudd, Richard A., chief transportation coordinator, Department of City Planning, New York City ........................................................... 449 SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD FRiDAY, AuGusT 7, 1987 Carliner, Michael S.: Prepared statement................................................................... 411 Chudd, Richard A.: Prepared statement, together with attached letters ............. 451 D'Amato, Hon. Alfonse M., member of the Joint Economic Committee: Writ- ten opening statement.................................................................................................. 340 Duncan, Joseph W.: Prepared statement, together with attached letters ............ 387 Dymally, Hon. Mervyn M.: Written opening statement .......................................... 348 Gramm, Wendy Lee: Prepared statement................................................................... 357 Jackson, Hon. Michael: Prepared statement.............................................................. 445 Keeton, Hon. Ruth: Prepared statement, together with an attached letter ......... 433 Pepper, Hon. Claude, chairman of the Subcommittee on Health and Long- Term Care, House Select Committee on Aging: Written statement .................. 336 Sarbanes, Hon. Paul S.: Communications regarding the proposed elimination of key housing and population questions from the 1990 census ......................... 4 Schechter, Henry B.: Prepared statement.................................................................. 419 VanWingen, Rachel Senner: Prepared statement ..................................................... 401 Wylie, Hon. Chalmers P., member of the Joint Economic Committee: Written opening statement........................................................................................................ 342 (l1l) OMB PROPOSAL FOR SEVERE CUTS IN THE 1990 CENSUS FRIDAY, AUGUST 7, 1987 CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES, JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE, Washington, DC. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:14 a.m., in room SD-628, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Paul S. Sarbanes (chairman of the committee) presiding. Present: Senators Sarbanes, Melcher, and Bingaman; and Repre- sentatives Hawkins, Scheuer, McMillan, and Dymally. Also present: Paul Manchester, professional staff member. OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR SARBANES, CHAIRMAN Senator SARBANES. The committee will come to order. I would say for the people standing in the back, I think there are some seats scattered in various places. You might be able to move in and take the remaining seats here and there. This hearing has obviously attracted a great deal of interest and attention. We are pleased also to have join the committee as our guest, Congressman Mervyn Dymally of California, who is the chairman of the House Subcommittee on Census and Population of the Com- mittee on Post Office and Civil Service. This hearing will focus on the potential effects of the Office of Management and Budget's proposal to drop from the 1988 census dress rehearsal roughly 30 questions that up to this time had been scheduled for inclusion in the 1990 census. We undertake the census in this country every 10 years, and we've been doing it since 1790. The hearing reflects the longstanding concern of the Joint Eco- nomic Committee for the quality of the Federal statistical infra- structure. It has been the view of this committee that access to ac- curate, comprehensive, and timely data is indispensable to sound decisionmaking. Obviously, full and reliable statistical information does not, in itself, guarantee sound decisions or inevitably lead to sound decisions. Nevertheless, good statistics are part of the frame- work of decisionmaking in both the private and public sectors which makes sound decisions and sound policies more likely. It was precisely this concern that led the committee last year to hold ex- tensive hearings on the quality of the Nation's economic statistics. Those hearings which took place in March and April 1986-a little over a year ago-were, in part, a response to the widespread (1) 2 and growing concern that our capacity to provide critical statistical information was increasingly at risk. Witnesses at those hearings, including former high-ranking offi- cials of both the current and earlier administrations, were agreed on the central role played by the Federal statistical system and on the necessity not only of maintaining that system at its traditional- ly high level but of assuring its capacity to adopt to rapidly chang- ing economic conditions. As one witness pointed out, quoting Geoffrey Moore, the former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently di- rector of the Center for International Business Cycle Research at Columbia University School: "If economic statistics are not contin- ually improved, they will deteriorate." The subject of today's hearing does not reach to the question of future improvement. It focuses on the very recent proposal by the Office of Management and Budget to reduce the number of ques- tions scheduled for inclusion in the 1988 census dress rehearsal- the dress rehearsal for the 1990 census form-by about one-third. About two-thirds of the proposed cuts involve housing questions, while the remainder involve such vital issues as employment and unemployment, transportation, mobility, and energy. The OMB message proposing this reduction was forwarded to the Census Bureau on July 24, just 2 weeks ago-in fact, 2 weeks ago today. The Census Bureau and interested members of the public were given only 2 weeks-namely, until today-to respond. It is my strongly held view that in light of the sweeping nature of OMB's proposals, this was a very short time period, indeed. Since the dress rehearsal is considered to be precisely what its name implies, any questions dropped from the dress rehearsal would presumably be dropped from the 1990 census as well. Now it is important to understand that some of OMB's proposals involve reducing coverage from some questions from a census of households to a sample. The Census Bureau