PRISM❖ Vol. 1, no. 2 03/2010 PRISM Vol. 1, no. 2 ❖ 03/2010 www.ndu.edu A JOURNAL OF THE CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS PRISM ABOUT CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS (CCO) CCO WAS ESTABLISHED TO: PRISM is published by the National Defense University Press for the Center for ❖ Serve as an information clearinghouse and knowledge Enhancing the U.S. Government’s Ability to manager for complex operations training and education, PUBLISHER Complex Operations. PRISM is a security studies journal chartered to inform members of U.S. Federal Agencies, allies, and other partners on complex and Prepare for Complex Operations acting as a central repository for information on areas Dr. Hans Binnendijk integrated national security operations; reconstruction and nationbuilding; relevant such as training and curricula, training and education pro- CCO, located within the Center for Technology and policy and strategy; lessons learned; and developments in training and education vider institutions, complex operations events, and subject EDITOR AND RESEARCH DIRECTOR National Security Policy (CTNSP) at National Defense to transform America’s security and development apparatus to meet tomorrow’s matter experts University, links U.S. Government education and training Michael Miklaucic challenges better while promoting freedom today. institutions, including related centers of excellence, ❖ Develop a complex operations training and education com- lessons learned programs, and academia, to foster unity munity of practice to catalyze innovation and development DEVELOPMENTAL EDITOR of effort in reconstruction and stability operations, of new knowledge, connect members for networking, share Melanne A. Civic, Esq. COMMUNICATIONS counterinsurgency, and irregular warfare—collectively existing knowledge, and cultivate foundations of trust and called “complex operations.” The Department of Defense, habits of collaboration across the community Constructive comments and contributions are important to us. Please direct MANAGING EDITOR with support from the State Department and U.S. Agency editorial communications to the link on the NDU Press Web site (ndupress.ndu. ❖ Serve as a feedback and information conduit to the Office Dr. Jeffrey D. Smotherman for International Development, established CCO as an edu) or write to: of the Secretary of Defense and broader U.S. Government innovative interagency partnership. policy leadership to support guidance and problem-solving PRODUCTION SUPERVISOR Editor, PRISM across the community of practice Tara J. Parekh National Defense University Press ❖ Enable more effective networking, coordination, and 260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64, Room 3605) synchronization to support the preparation of Depart- COPY EDITORS Fort Lesley J. McNair Washington, DC 20319 ment of Defense and other U.S. Government personnel Calvin B. Kelley for complex operations George C. Maerz Telephone: ❖ Support lessons learned processes and best practices Lisa M. Yambrick (202) 685-3442 compilation in the area of complex operations FAX: ADVISORY BOARD (202) 685-3581 ❖ Identify education and training gaps in the Department of Email: [email protected] Dr. Gordon Adams Defense and other Federal departments and agencies and PRISM online: ndupress.ndu.edu Dr. Pauline H. Baker facilitate efforts to fill those gaps. Rick Barton Ambassador James F. Dobbins CONTRIBUTIONS Visit the CCO Web site at: https://members.ccoportal.org/ LtCol Frank G. Hoffman, USMCR (Ret.) 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Any Subscriptions for individuals: copyrighted portions of this journal may not be reproduced or extracted without http://bookstore.gpo.gov/subscriptions permission of the copyright proprietors. PRISM should be acknowledged whenever material is quoted from or based on its content. Please visit NDU Press and PRISM online at ndupress.ndu.edu for more on upcoming Subscriptions for individuals: http://bookstore.gpo.gov/subscriptions issues, an electronic archive of PRISM articles, and access to other publications. The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government. t FEATURES 3 Security Is More Than “20” Percent by Ronald E. Neumann 13 Adjusting to Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations by Robert Hoekstra and Charles E. Tucker, Jr. 27 Leaving the Civilians Behind: The “Soldier-diplomat” in Afghanistan and Iraq ndupress.ndu.edu by Edward Burke 47 Organized Crime in Iraq: Strategic Surprise and Lessons for Future Contingencies by Phil Williams 69 Forging a U.S. Policy Toward Fragile States by Pauline H. Baker 85 State Fragility as a Wicked Problem by Kenneth J. Menkhaus 101 Lessons from Liberia’s Success: Thoughts on Leadership, the Process of Peace, Security, and Justice by John W. Blaney 111 Complex Operations in Weak and Failing States: The Sudan Rebel Perspective by William Reno 123 Not in Our Image: The Challenges of Effective Peace-building by James Stephenson, Richard McCall, and Alexandra Simonians LESSONS LEARNED 133 Building a Civilian Lessons Learned System By Melanne Civic and Bernard Carreau INTERVIEWS 141 An Interview with Raymond T. Odierno 149 An Interview with Thomas S. Szayna PRISM BOOK REVIEWS 155 The Responsibility to Protect: Ending Mass Atrocity Crimes Once and for All Reviewed by Melanne Civic 160 Occupying Iraq: A History of the Coalition Provisional Authority and Integrating Civilian Agencies in Stability Operations Reviewed by Stuart W. Bowen, Jr. Afghan National Police recruits receive weapons training during security course U.S. Air Force (Marc I. Lane) Security Is More Than “20” Percent BY RONALD E. NEUMANN ecurity is only 20 percent of the solution; 80 percent is governance and development.” “There is no military solution to insurgency.” S These and similar statements have rightly refocused counterinsurgency doctrine and popular thinking away from purely military solutions to the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet these catchphrases have become substitutes for deeper consideration of the role of security in the current conflicts and in insurgency in general, hiding some important points and leading to assump- tions that are an insufficient basis for policy. In some cases, military force alone has quelled insurgencies. The importance of security can shift as an insurgency grows. Whether security and stabilization/development are sequen- tial or simultaneous may vary in different parts of the same country. However, at some point, Ronald E. Neumann is President of the American Academy of Diplomacy. He was U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan (2005–2007), Bahrain (2001–2004), and Algeria (1994–1997). PRISM 1, no. 2 FEATURES | 3 whether security is 20 percent of the solution Security forces have historically ended a or 50 percent is less relevant than that it is an great many insurgencies from ancient times to essential foundation without which none of modern. Spartacus’s rebellion was ended by sav- the other factors can succeed. Moreover, since age repression, negotiation having been refused. security in this sense is not only security of After many bloody years, insurgencies were thus the population but also safety that locals see as crushed from the Muslims in Dutch Indonesia, a credible development, security involves the to Abdul Khadar’s 19th-century revolt against actions of local forces. This in turn requires a the French3 in Algeria, to the late 20th-century reexamination of several issues. One question insurgency in Algeria. Powerful Afghan rul- is the ratio of local forces to the task at hand. ers, such as Amir Abdul Rahman, who put Another is whether such forces are seen as down numerous rebellions in Afghanistan, providing freedom from oppression or are the would have found puzzling if not simply fool- ish the notion that insurgency could not be stamped out by force. The United States used security forces have historically ended force as a primary tool in suppressing revolts a great many insurgencies from ancient in the Philippines, Haiti, and elsewhere in the times to modern Caribbean in the early 20th century, although improvements in civil administration, health, and education also played a role.4 The Greek source of oppression. A third is whether our civil war of 1943–1950 was ended by force of current practice of trying to use local police to arms.5 The long years of insurgency in Sri Lanka manage the gap between foreign forces and the seem finally to have reached a military solution. time needed to build a competent local mili- This is not