Market Watch Monday, March 01, 2021 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr Agenda 01 M onday 02 Tuesday 03 Wednesday 04 Thursday 05 Friday Turkstat, 4Q20 GDP Growth Germany, January TurkStat, February inflation CBRT, February Germany, Janu- retail sales inflation assess- ary factory orders China, February Caixin non-mfg. China, February Caixin mfg. PMI ment Germany, February PMI U.S., February Germany and Eurozone, Febru- unemployment data U.S., jobless non-farm payrolls ary Markit mfg. PMI Germany and Eurozone, Febru- ary Markit non-mfg. PMI claims and unemploy- Eurozone, February ment rate Germany, February CPI CPI Eurozone, February PPI U.S., January factory orders U.S., February U.S., February Markit mfg. PMI U.S., February ADP employment average hourly change earnings U.S., February ISM manufactur- ing index U.S., February Markit non-mfg. PMI U.S., January construction U.S., February ISM non- spending manufacturing index Outlook Major global stock markets closed lower on Friday, amid the rise in US Treasury yields, which has increased concerns over rising inflation and the Fed derailing its currently accommodative policy. Global risk appetite has Volume (mn TRY) BIST 100 relatively weakened, despite Fed Chair Powell’s statements suggesting that inflation was likely to remain below the targeted value, and that the 1.551 major central bank would maintain its current policy. Having moved in 1.518 1.488 parallel to the course of major international stock markets, the BIST100 48.000 1.483 1.471 1.600 also shed 1.13% to close at 1,471.39 on Friday, after a volatile day in 40.000 1.500 trading. The banking sector index diverged negatively, having declined by 1.73%. The TRY continued to depreciate and diverge negatively, ending 32.000 1.400 the week with a c.7% depreciation against the US$. Turkey’s 5-year CDS 24.000 34.193 29.159 30.099 27.426 1.300 premium has reached c.319bps levels, suggesting that risk appetite to- 16.000 wards TRY-based assets has relatively weakened. Risk appetite may be 8.000 16.950 1.200 disturbed further should this premium rise above 340bps levels. On the 0 1.100 other hand, the VIX, a gauge of volatility expectation in the US markets 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb was around 28 on Friday, suggesting that volatility and selling pressure in the US markets is likely to continue in the near term. Selling pressure could increase should this index rise further to above 31 levels. We expect Indices (TRY) Previous Last Chg. YTD a risk-off mode and profit taking to prevail amid volatile trading in the glob- BIST 100 1.488 1.471 -1,13% -0,36% al stock markets this week, although the US Treasury yields have BIST 30 1.574 1.556 -1,15% -4,89% been weakening somewhat. The BIST is expected to move in parallel to BIST-Financial 1.555 1.528 -1,76% -2,40% the performance of major international stock markets, where selling pres- BIST-Industrial 2.569 2.549 -0,78% 8,91% sure is likely to continue. Possible reactionary buying at the BIST may BIST-Services 1.172 1.169 -0,31% -2,02% remain weak, as suggested by the decline in non-residents’ holdings over the past 5 weeks, and may be utilized for profit taking, as the benchmark Advances Declines Most Active index seeks its new near-term low. Investors will today follow Turkey’s Stocks (%) Stocks (%) Stocks Vol (TR) 4Q20 GDP growth data to be announced by TurkStat, where we expect MARTI 10,00 ISATR -10,00 THYAO 2.491.241.238 growth of 6.2% and the market average expectation is at 7.0%. The US SUMAS 10,00 MERIT -9,98 GARAN 1.939.966.521 and German futures have been slightly advancing and the Asian markets ARTI 10,00 YESIL -9,95 KOZAL 1.851.960.698 have been trading positively today. We expect the BIST to open with reac- TMPOL 10,00 AYEN -9,91 PETKM 1.301.092.003 tionary buying, which may continue during the day, although we caution CASA 9,99 VAKFN -9,55 PGSUS 1.106.584.369 that this may be utilized for profit taking. SUPPORT: 1.467 - 1.456 RE- SISTANCE: 1.487 - 1.502 Money Market Previous Last Pr. Mn YTD O/N Repo (%) 16,75 18,11 17,35 18,49 Money Market: Bond (Benchmark, %) 14,89 14,92 14,67 14,96 The Lira was negative on Friday, weakening 2.38% against the USD to close at 7.4176. Additionally, the currency depreciated by 1.92% against Currency Previous Last Chg. YTD the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed in- US$ 7,4339 7,4267 -0,10% -0,17% come markets were negative. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded Euro 8,973715 8,97099 -0,03% -1,77% within a range of 13.39%-13.53%, ending the day at a low of 13.39%, 12 Euro/Dolar 1,2071 1,20768 0,05% -1,32% bps above its previous close. Commodity Previous Last Chg. YTD Domestic Headlines: Oil (Brent spot, $) 65,9 64,3 -2,34% 24,80% Δ Today, Turkey's 2020 growth data will be released. The market expecta- Oil (NYMEX future, $) 63,5 61,7 -2,94% 27,34% tion is for Gross Domestic Product to grow 7% in the last quarter (2020 Gold (Ounce, $) 1.734,1 1.734,6 0,03% -8,63% growth 2.3%). As Seker Invest, we estimate that the economy will grow by Silver (XAG, $) 27,4 26,7 -2,56% 0,93% 6.2% in the last quarter of 2020 and by 1.87% in 2020 on average. Şeker Funds Previous Last* Chg. YTD Fiba Portfoy Şekerbank Money 1,965606 1,968252 0,13% 2,55% Fiba Portfoy Şekerbank Short T. 0,022931 0,022961 0,13% 2,38% * Prices as of 01-Mar-21 Market Watch Monday, March 01, 2021 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr Δ According to foreign trade data; exports increased by 2.3% to 15 World Indices billion 45 million dollars in January 2021 compared to the same month of America Previous Last Chg. YTD the previous year, and imports decreased by 5.9% to 18 billion 79 million Dow Jones (US) 31.402 30.932 -1,50% 1,06% dollars. With these data, while the foreign trade deficit was 3,03 billion dol- Nasdaq (US) 13.119 13.192 0,56% 2,36% lars, the ratio of exports to imports rose to 83.2%. While the share of the S&P 500 (US) 3.829 3.811 -0,48% 1,47% manufacturing industry in exports was 93.8% (previous 94%), the share of Europe Previous Last Chg. YTD intermediate goods in imports continues to decline (current 76.3%, previ- Dax (Germany) 13.879 13.786 -0,67% 0,49% ous 78.1%). When the import and export status of our trade partners are FTSE 100 (UK) 6.652 6.483 -2,53% 0,35% examined, Germany takes the first place in exports with a share of 9.7%, CAC 40 (France) 5.784 5.703 -1,39% 2,73% while China has the largest share in imports with 12.2%. PSI20 (Portugal) 4.787 4.702 -1,78% -4,00% RTSI (Rusia) 1.450 1.412 -2,65% 1,76% While the recovery in the foreign trade deficit in January is encouraging Asia Previous Last Chg. YTD about the current account deficit data, it also brings to mind the slowdown in the production rate in the economy. Especially the decrease in the share Nikkei (Japan) 30.168 28.966 -3,99% 5,55% of intermediate goods in imports indicates that consumption products are Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 30.074 28.980 -3,64% 6,42% preferred over production. Despite the appreciation of the Turkish Lira Shanghai Comp. (China) 3.585 3.509 -2,12% 1,04% (relatively cheap import opportunity), the decrease in the amount of imports KOSPI (South Korea) 3.100 3.013 -2,80% 4,85% signals that there will be a slowdown in the rate of returning production / Sensex (India) 51.039 49.100 -3,80% 2,57% investment to its former level due to the concerns about the epidemic Turkdex (Set. Price) Previous Last Chg. YTD measures in the economy. If the existing data are supported by the data in INX30 (December 20) 1.577 1.555 -1,40% -6,24% the service sector, the improvement in the current account balance will USD (December 20) 7,2161 7,378 2,24% -2,72% begin as of January. EURO (December 20) 8,8175 8,950 1,50% -4,12% Sector New s: GOLD (December 20) 411,69 413,39 0,41% -11,33% Portfolio Inclusion Inclusion Last Chg. BIST Δ Fitch Ratings has revised the outlooks on 13 Turkish banks' support- Recommend. Date Price Close (%) Relative driven Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) and Long-Term Local- Tofas 06/09/19 18,98 34,66 82,6% 22,9% Currency (LTLC) Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'Stable' from negative. Şişecam 18/01/21 7,82 7,13 -8,8% -5,5% The rating agency has also affirmed the ratings of those banks' subsidiar- Erdemir 18/01/21 15,19 14,59 -3,9% -0,5% ies, revising their outlooks to 'Stable.' Fitch has also revised the outlooks on Akbank 18/01/21 6,91 6,06 -12,3% -9,1% the LTLC IDRs of a further seven Turkish banks and their non-bank finan- Arcelik 07/12/20 27,98 33,18 18,6% 7,2% cial subsidiaries, to 'Stable' from Negative.