INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS The Arctic A Diverse and Evolving Region PETRA DOLATA September 2015 The Arctic is not one homogenous area but many different regions. Natural environments and historical developments as well as political, economic and social circumstances vary across the Arctic and as a consequence the Arctic plays very different roles in domestic and foreign policies of respective Arctic states. While the Arctic is impacted by global developments such as low commodity prices and climate change, it persists at the same time as a unique political space which remains relatively unaffected by current geopolitical antagonisms outside the region. The dual global-regional nature of the Arctic complicates discussions of who the legitimate actors are, ranging from insiders to outsiders of the region as well as state and non-state actors, all of whom claim political authority. There has been no race or scramble for resources and territory in the Arctic. Since 2007, when a Russian flag was planted on the seabed at the North Pole drawing worldwide media attention to the region, a number of agreements have been reached that contribute to increased security and cooperation. One of the most important institutions remains the intergovernmental, circumpolar Arctic Council which is transforming from a soft law, functionalist organization to one with stronger competencies and permanent administrative structures. Petra Dolata | THE ArctIC Content Introduction ............................................................ 3 1. Not one Arctic but many ............................................... 3 2. Arctic exceptionalism? ................................................. 4 3. Whither the Arctic Race? ............................................... 5 4. A new security landscape and future challenges ............................ 6 1 Petra Dolata | THE ArctIC Introduction development is slower to pick up here than in more accessible regions in Northern Norway, Finland, Iceland, The Arctic remerged as a geopolitical space in the early Sweden or Western Russia. In addition, demographics 2000s. The combined effects of climate change and the differ considerably. In some countries people living search for fossil fuels at a time when many thought the in the Artic account for only a fraction of the overall West would run out of oil led to a heightened interest population. According to the Arctic Human Development in the region. Reports about the increasing accessibility Report, in 2004 only 0.4 percent of Canadians and 0.2 of of the Arctic Ocean due to the melting of ice became Americans lived in Arctic Canada and Alaska respectively. even more important when the U.S. Geological Survey In Norway, that number is ten per cent and for Iceland published its Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal in 2008 it is 100 per cent. Apart from these quantitative estimating that 13 per cent of the world’s undiscovered dissimilarities the composition of the Arctic population oil and up to 30 per cent of the world’s undiscovered in the eight Arctic states differs considerably. While natural gas may be found in the Arctic. While the shale around 88 per cent of Greenlanders and approximately revolution in the United States and low oil prices may 50 per cent of Canadians in the Arctic are members of have dampened the thirst for Arctic oil for now, oil indigenous groups, the numbers are much lower for the companies view the Arctic as a promising future oil and other regions, for example 15 per cent for Alaska, while gas play. And as the effects of climate change manifest Iceland has no indigenous population. This may explain themselves even more visibly in the Arctic the region is why the Canadian government placed more emphasis destined to remain in the news. Its geopolitical saliency on indigenous issues during their second chairmanship will not go away any time soon. But just like changes of the Arctic Council from 2013 to 2015. have led the world to look towards the Arctic the politics and economics in the region have equally undergone Secondly, due to the above climatic and geological change since the early 2000s and thus have redefined circumstances, the Arctic has assumed different potential challenges in the Arctic. meanings in domestic and national identity politics. Historically, for Canada and Russia the Arctic has become a defining national narrative. Despite the low percentage 1. Not one Arctic but many of Canadians (0.4 per cent) and Russians (1.4 per cent) living in the Arctic, Arctic issues are more politicized The Arctic may have gained significance as a geopolitical than elsewhere and foreign policies in both countries space and the current U.S. chairmanship of the Arctic have been defined by discussions of defending Arctic Council might follow the theme of »One Arctic,« but sovereignty. In contrast, states like the U.S. and Sweden it is not helpful to conceive of this space as a coherent do not have a strong Arctic identity. These differences one. Rather than speaking of the Arctic we need to can be extended to other domestic policy areas. Arctic oil acknowledge that there are several Arctics or many and gas exploration does not play the same role all over different Arctic regions. Natural environments and the Arctic ranging from Norway and Russia whose Arctic historical developments as well as political, economic production is quite considerable to Canada where Arctic and social circumstances vary across the Arctic and as offshore production is non-existent for the time being a consequence the Arctic plays very different roles in and the remaining onshore production only a fraction of domestic and foreign policies of the eight Arctic states non-Arctic production in the country. Assertions such as (Canada, Denmark/Greenland, Iceland, Finland, Norway, »the Arctic is an energy-rich region« need to be qualified. Russia, Sweden, U.S.). A closer look at the 2008 USGS estimates reveals that the potential oil and gas reserves are not equally spread First of all, accessibility varies considerably amongst all over the Arctic but are expected to be located in the Artic states. Climate and geology have made the the Beaufort and Chukchi seas as well as in the Barents European Nordic Arctic (excluding Greenland) easier to and Kara seas. Non-coastal Arctic states such as Iceland reach than the North American Arctic, Greenland and focus on other opportunities for development such as Eastern Russia. The latter lack infrastructure such as becoming an important Arctic shipping hub. roads, rails and pipelines rendering communities in these areas much more remote. As a consequence economic 3 Petra Dolata | THE ArctIC Thirdly, the Arctic includes both maritime and mainland between Russian and Western oil companies. This Arctic regions. Under the United Nations Convention on the exceptionalism can further be seen in the tensions Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) sovereign Arctic states have the between Canada and the EU which run counter to their exclusive right to exploit resources within their Exclusive generally amicable transatlantic relations. In response Economic Zone (EEZ) which extends 200 nautical miles out to the EU ban on seal products Canada blocked the EU to the sea. Because the Arctic is made up of coastal states application to become an observer on the Arctic Council. around the Arctic Ocean this leaves only a donut-hole- shaped international space which is considered high seas. It is this understanding of the Arctic as a unique As will be outlined below Arctic states currently apply for region which leads Arctic states to claim exclusive extending this exclusive right beyond the 220-mile EEZ political legitimacy. However, climate change is also diminishing the size of the donut hole. The distinction a transnational and global phenomenon. Also, even between national jurisdiction and international waters though the international area in the Arctic is small it is also important in understanding the different ways does exist and is subject to international regimes such that Arctic and non-Arctic actors view the Arctic as a as UNCLOS and the International Maritime Organization geopolitical space. Not surprisingly, Arctic states look up (IMO), which recently adopted the so-called Polar to the North Pole, starting with their sovereign mainland Code (international code of safety for ships operating territory first, followed by their EEZ and only in a last in polar waters), which will come into effect in 2017. step their eyes rest on high seas. In contrast, a number Furthermore, many of the economic actors, especially of non-Arctic actors focus on the North Pole and the in shipping and resource extraction, are based outside international waters first before eventually recognizing the Arctic. At the same time global environmental sovereign states that border international waters. These NGOs, foremost amongst them Greenpeace, focus different perspectives have led to disagreements over their work on the Arctic demanding that oil and gas who the legitimate actors in Arctic politics are, only those remain untapped. Other outside Arctic stakeholders geographically located in the Arctic or everyone who include self-declared »near Arctic states« such as the has a stake in the region, which is partly international UK and China and non-Arctic states with a long Arctic waters. More generally, the dissimilarities between research tradition such as Germany and France. While Arctic regions may also make future decision-making these states have a pronounced interest in the Arctic it in the Arctic Council difficult as this intergovernmental, is often an integral part of a more comprehensive polar circumpolar organization is based on consensus and strategy including both the Arctic and Antarctic. Such an unanimous voting. approach undermines the uniqueness of the Arctic. The dual global-regional nature of the Arctic complicates 2. Arctic exceptionalism? discussions of who the legitimate actors are, ranging from insiders to outsiders of the region as well as state and While the Arctic is impacted by global developments such non-state actors, all of whom claim political authority.