ENVIRONMENT SCAN: 16-30 APR 2020 CHINA (Geo-Strat, Geo-Politics & Geo-Economics) Brig RK Bhutani (Retd) Beijing's Aggressive South China Sea Push Amid Pandemic Worries India, US Under cover of the coronavirus pandemic, China has ramped up its aggressive expansionism both in the South China Sea as well as the Indian Ocean Region, raising concern not only among its smaller neighbours but India and US as well. On 19 April, China renamed 80 geographical features in the South China Sea — standard names for 25 islands and reefs and 55 undersea geographic entities in a move that has worried the region, signalling that China was establishing sovereignty over parts of the South China Sea covered by a 9-dash line that is deemed illegal according to international law. The listed islands included Sanzhizai, an islet north of Yongxing Island in Sansha city, South China's Hainan Province. The pandemic has not stopped China from pursuing its longer-term strategic goals in the region. This comes after Chinese ships rammed and sank a Vietnamese ship three days after Vietnam protested to the UN against China’s sovereignty claims in the South China Sea. The Chinese action triggered protests from the Philippines to the US. Manila, going against Beijing, issued a statement saying, “our own similar experience revealed how much trust in a friendship is lost by it and how much trust was created by Vietnam’s humanitarian act of directly saving the lives of our Filipino fishermen.” US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo raised, “Chinese “bullying” activities in the South China Sea that distract from current efforts to deal with the pandemic.” The Philippines, unusually, lodged two protests against China over violations of international law and Philippine sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea. Last week, Japanese foreign minister Toshimitsu Motegi lodged a protest against China for sending its ships into Japanese territorial waters near the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Japan contends that Chinese ships have intruded into Japanese waters, including on one occasion filing through the area for about 90 minutes. In response, a US warship has sailed through the Taiwan Straits for the second time in a month. Last week, US warships even sailed through disputed waters off Malaysia, to deter Chinese ships, which have been intimidating a Malaysian oil vessel for weeks. This was in response to Chinese aircraft carrier moving near Taiwan. Comments. Implications for India are as follows:- Chinese operations have focused on the region’s western end close to the Indian Ocean Region, targeting countries like Vietnam and Indonesia, with whom; India has close political and military relationship. China’s expanding designs in littoral coincides with a rise in Chinese activity in the eastern Indian Ocean, particularly the presence of Chinese research and survey vessels in India’s EEZs. 2 Growing operations by China’s deep-sea mining vessels, fishing fleets and intelligence ships in the Indian Ocean, an indication of Beijing’s expanding economic and strategic footprint in India’s natural sphere of influence. Once China firms its grip over the South China Sea, it will use island outposts to extend greater military power in the eastern Indian Ocean.” https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/beijings-aggressive-south-china-sea-push-amid-pandemic-worries- india-us/articleshow/75393720.cms China Cancels Annual Boao Forum Due to Coronavirus China has cancelled the 2020 Boao Forum for Asia, which Beijing is trying to promote as the region's answer to Davos, due to the coronavirus epidemic, the official China News agency reported on 30 April. The annual conference, initially scheduled for March 24-27, was postponed in early March due to the COVID-19 outbreak, which first emerged late last year in China. https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/29/world/asia/29reuters-health-coronavirus-china-boao.html US, Chinese Experts Probing Origins of Coronavirus: Report American scientists are working with their Chinese counterparts to investigate the origins of the novel coronavirus, a prime demand of US President Donald Trump and several other countries like Britain, Australia and Germany have called for more transparency from Beijing on COVID-19 origins. While there is no official announcement but the state-run CGTN television reported on 29 April that the China Centre for Disease Control and Prevention is facilitating the cooperation between Dr. Ian Lipikin, Director for Centre for Infection and Immunity of Columbia University, and Prof Lu Jinhai of Sun-Yat-Sen University of Guangzhou to conduct the probe.“The two are working together to determine whether the virus emerged elsewhere in China before Wuhan in December last year”, the report said. It is also not yet clear whether the investigation has the official consent of the US government. China said such a probe has no precedence or legal basis besides investigations into such pandemics in the past had not provided any conclusive results. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang played down the calls for enquiry saying that the investigations in the past on such viruses achieved little. He said, “The origin of the virus is a matter of science and should be studied by scientists and professionals… It is a very complicated issue often it takes a lot of time and there is a degree of uncertainty. Throughout human history, tracing the origins of many diseases took a dozen years or decades. Some progress was made but a conclusive answer has not been reached.” He further added, “Studies in the world have not clearly identified the origin and transmission routes of the virus. So there is no science basis to draw a clear conclusion about the origin of the (past) viruses.” Geng said the aim should be to find out how it occurs and prevent future damages to mankind. It is not about retribution and or accountability. There is no precedence in the world for this and there is no legal basis. 3 “Politicising the issue of the origin of the virus goes against the spirit of science. It disrupts international cooperation and the mutual trust and will not help with global cooperation to fight the virus,” Geng said. Comments. Since the probe has no official recognition, it is only a delaying tactics by China to linger on with the investigation; as they have already conveyed that tracing the origins of many diseases took a dozen years or decades and even then they had remained inconclusive. https://www.financialexpress.com/lifestyle/health/us-chinese-experts-probing-origins-of-coronavirus- report/1943692/ China to hold Annual Parliament Session from May 22 China will hold its annual Parliament session from May 22 which was earlier scheduled to be held from March 5 and got postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic outbreak in the country, the state media reported on 29 April. The decision was made at a regular session of the National People's Congress' (NPC) Standing Committee, the country's top legislature. The third session of the 13th NPC will now open in Beijing on May 22. https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/china-to-hold-annual-parliament-session-from-may-22-1672311-2020- 04-29 IOR, ANC AND INDO-PACIFIC Capt (IN) KK Agnihotri Pakistan Navy Carries Out Anti-Ship Missile Firings Pakistan Navy released a statement regarding successful test-firing of a series of anti-ship missiles in the North Arabian Sea on 25 Apr 2020. The missiles were reportedly fired from warships, fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters. The Pak Navy did not divulge more details about the firing exercise. Pakistan’s Chief of the Naval Staff, Admiral Zafar Mahmood Abbasi witnessed the missile firing. The Navy spokesperson Rear Admiral Javed boasted that the successful demonstration of missile firing was a testament to the Pakistan Navy's operational capability and military readiness. Admiral Abbasi said that the "Pakistan Navy was fully capable of responding to enemy's aggression befittingly". Comments. This missile firing exercise has taken place amidst continued tensions in the India-Pak relations. Pakistan had earlier carried out the test of its latest Ra’ad-II air- launched cruise missile, with a claimed range of 600 km, in Feb 2020. According to the Pak military’s ISPR, the homegrown Ra’ad-II “significantly enhances air delivered strategic standoff capability on land and at sea." The earlier developed Ra’ad-I missile had a stated range of 350 km. Other indigenous ASCM in Pak Navy’s arsenal includes the’ Babur’ missile with a claimed range of 350 km. Source:https://nation.com.pk/25-Apr-2020/pakistan-navy-demonstrates-anti-ship-missile-firing-in-arabian- sea;https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/pakistan-navy-successfully-test-fires-anti-ship-missiles-1671056- 2020-04-25 4 China and Malaysia Engaged in Months-Long South China Sea Standoff Malaysia on 23 Apr 2020 called for disputes over the South China Sea to be resolved by peaceful means, amid a standoff between Chinese and Malaysian vessels that has been going on silently for months. A Chinese government survey vessel, Haiyang Dizhi 8, has been operating close to ‘West Capella’ drill-ship, which is under contract to Malaysian state oil company Petronas. Chief of Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency, Admiral Zubil Mat Som, confirmed on 16 Apr 2020 that Haiyang Dizhi 8 accompanied by a Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessel, entered Malaysia's EEZ in mid-Apr 2020, and began survey in vicinity of Luconia shoals, close to where the Malaysian chartered drill-ship was operating. Haiyang Dizhi 8 was still within Malaysia's EEZ on 23 Apr 2020, about 337 km off Borneo. Three US warships and an Australian frigate also conducted a joint exercise near the site of West Capella's operations in the South China Sea, during the same week.