GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS 2014 GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS 2014 Global Employment Trends 2014 The annual Global Employment Trends (GET) reports provide the latest Risk of a jobless recovery? global and regional estimates of employment and unemployment, employ- ment by sector, vulnerable employment, labour productivity, informal em- ployment and working poverty, while also analysing country-level issues and trends in the labour market. Based on the most recently available data and taking into account macro- +0.1 economic trends and forecasts, the GET reports seek to shed light on cur- +2.03 +0.04 rent labour market trends and challenges. The reports build on the ILO’s -25.301 Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM) and include a consistent set 023 -00.22 of tables with regional and global estimates of labour market indicators. 006.65 0.887983 +1.922523006.62 -0.657987 +1.987523006.82 -006.65 Each report contains a medium-term labour market outlook, assessing likely +0.1 0.887987 +1.987523006.60 0.887987 +2.03 trends and drivers of labour market developments around the world. +1.0075230.887984 +1.987523006.64 0.887985 +0.04 +1.997523006.65 0.887986 +1.984523006.66 -25.301 The Global Employment Trends 2014 report highlights the risks of a job- 0.327987 +1.987523006.59 -0.807987 023 +1.987521006.65 0.-887987 +1.987523006.65 less recovery. Economic activity is starting to recover in most developed and -00.22 0.807987 +1.987523 0.887983 +1.987523006.62 006.65 0.887983 +1.922523006.62 emerging economies. However, labour markets have not yet recovered from -0.883988 +1.987523006.63 -006.65 0.894989 +0.1-0.657987 +1.987523006.82 -006.65 previous weaknesses and global unemployment remains at 6 per cent or al- +0.1 +1.987523006.65 0.887990 +2.03 +2.03 +0.887987 +1.987523006.60 0.887987 most 202 million jobseekers. As joblessness persists, ever more unemployed +0.1 +0.04 +0.04 +1.0075230.887984 +1.987523006.64 0.887985 +2.03 -25.301 workers are becoming discouraged and quit the labour market, further widen- -25.301 +1.997523006.65 0.887986 +1.984523006.66 +0.04 023 023 -0.327987 +1.987523006.59 -0.807987 ing the crisis-related jobs gap in comparison to pre-crisis trends. Insufficient -25.301 -00.22 006.65 0.887983 +1.922523006.62 -00.22 +1.987521006.65 0.-887987 +1.987523006.65 023 006.65 0.887983 +1.922523006.62 private and public consumption as well as low investment prevent faster job -0.657987 +1.987523006.82 -006.65 006.65 0.887983 0.807987 +1.922523006.62 +1.987523 0.887983 +1.987523006.62 -00.22 -0.657987 +1.987523006.82 -006.65 0.887987 +1.987523006.60 0.887987 -0.657987 +1.987523006.82-0.883988 -006.65 +1.987523006.63 -006.65 -0.894989 creation and a quicker fall in the unemployment rate. Historically low inter- 006.65 0.887983+0.887987 +1.922523006.62 +1.987523006.60 0.887987 +1.0075230.887984 +1.987523006.64 .887 0.887987 +1.987523006.60+1.987523006.65 0.887987 0.887990 -0.657987 +1.0075230.887984+1.987523006.82 -006.65 +1.987523006.64 0.887985 est rates, especially in advanced economies, have so far triggered a surge in +1.997523006.65 0.887986 +1.984523 220 +1.0075230.887984 +1.987523006.64 0.887985 0.887987 +1.987523006.60+1.997523006.65 0.8879870.887986 +1.984523006.66 financial rather than in real investment, with little effect on job creation. 0.327987 +1.987523006.59 -0.807987 48 +1.997523006.65 0.887986 +1.984523006.66 +1.0075230.887984 -0.327987 +1.987523006.64 +1.987523006.59 0.887985 -0.807987 +1.987521006.65 0.-887987 +1.987523 0.327987 +1.987523006.59 -0.807987 +1.997523006.65 +1.987521006.65 0.887986 +1.984523006.660.-887987 +1.987523006.65 0.807987 +1.987523 0.887983 +1. 9 +1.987521006.65 0.-887987 +1.987523006.65 The report argues that policy-makers need to tackle weak aggregate demand 0.327987 +1.987523006.590.807987 +1.987523 -0.807987 0.887983 +1.987523006.62 -0.883988006.65 0.887987 +1.987523006.63 +1.987523 -006.65 0.807987 +1.987523 0.887983 +1.987523006.62 +1.987521006.65 -0.883988 0.-887987 +1.987523006.63 +1.987523006.65 -006.65 -0.894989 growth through more pro-active policies that help boost private and public 0.894989 +1.987523006.65 0.887990 -0.883988 +1.987523006.63 -006.65 0.894989 0.807987 +1.987523+1.987523006.65 0.887983 0.887990 +1.987523006.62 consumption. In addition, hiring uncertainty needs to be brought down in +1.987523006.65-0.883988 0.887990 +1.987523006.63 -006.65 0.894989 order to increase investment and job creation. This can be achieved, in +1.987523006.65 0.887990 particular, by providing better coordination of different policy instruments. Also, in countries with high and persistent unemployment, active labour market policies can help address emerging mismatch problems that hamper a faster labour market recovery. Finally, rising labour market discourage- ILO ment and structural unemployment should be tackled with new skills and training initiatives to help jobseekers find employment in alternative indus- Risk of a jobless recovery? tries and to promote their employability more broadly. January 2014 Global Employment Trends 2014 Risk of a jobless recovery? INTERNATIONAL LABOUR OFFICE • GENEVA Copyright © International Labour Organization 2014 First published 2014 Publications of the International Labour Office enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Conven- tion. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to ILO Publications (Rights and Permis- sions), International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email: [email protected]. The International Labour Office welcomes such applications. Libraries, institutions and other users registered with reproduction rights organizations may make copies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose. Visit www.ifrro.org to find the reproduction rights organization in your country. ISBN 978-92-2-127485-8 (print) ISBN 978-92-2-127486-5 (web pdf) ISSN 2304-4365 (print) ISSN 2304-2893 (pdf) Global Employment Trends 2014: Risk of a jobless recovery? / International Labour Office. Geneva: ILO, 2014 International Labour Office employment / unemployment / youth employment / youth unemployment / labour policy / economic recovery / regional development / Africa / Asia / Caribbean / developed countries / Europe / EU countries / Latin America / Middle East / Pacific 13.01.3 ILO Cataloguing in Publication Data The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presen- tation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval. ILO publications and electronic products can be obtained through major booksellers or ILO local offices in many coun- tries, or direct from ILO Publications, International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland. Catalogues or lists of new publications are available free of charge from the above address, or by email: [email protected] Visit our website: www.ilo.org/publns This publication was produced by the Document and Publications Production, Printing and Distribution Branch (PRODOC) of the ILO. Graphic and typographic design, manuscript preparation, copy editing, layout and composition, proofreading, printing, electronic publishing and distribution. PRODOC endeavours to use paper sourced from forests managed in an environmentally sustainable and socially responsible manner. Code: DTP-WEI-MUS Contents Acknowledgements . 7 Preface . 9 Executive summary . 11 1. Macroeconomic challenges and global labour market developments . 15 Some positive signs in advanced economies amidst deceleration in emerging economies . 15 Unemployment edges higher in 2013 and is expected to remain at elevated levels for many years to come . 16 Labour market situation of youth worsens further . 21 Where are the decent jobs? . 22 High rates of informality hamper sustainable progress in poverty reduction . 24 Unemployment is becoming more persistent . 25 Economic uncertainty remains high, with negative effects on hiring . 26 How is the growth slowdown in emerging economies shaping labour markets? . 27 The working middle class continues to grow in the developing world . 30 Summary . 32 Appendix: The ILO hiring uncertainty indicator . 33 2. Regional economic and labour market developments . 35 Developed Economies and European Union . 35 A recovery in activity, not in jobs . 35 The outlook for jobs remains bleak . 36 Long-term unemployment is on the rise as skills mismatch increases . 37 Social developments . 42 Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) and CIS . 43 Growth decelerated sharply . 43 The labour market picture remains bleak . 44 Social developments . 45 Persistent and emerging challenges . 46 Latin America and the Caribbean . 47 Growth is slowing down . 47 Employment growth continues to outpace labour force expansion . 47 Social developments and emerging challenges . 1 5 East Asia . 52 Global growth weighs on economic activity in the region . 52 3 The labour market picture . 53 Social developments . 53 Emerging challenges . 54 South-East Asia and the Pacific .