Israel and the Middle East News Update Wednesday, October 19 Headlines: Israel Faces Stiff Fight Next Week Over UNESCO Vote on Jerusalem Palestinian Envoy: UNESCO Vote About ‘Occupation’, Not Temple Mount Bachar Report: Israel Was Unprepared for 2014 Tunnel Threat Israel to Assist Egypt's Fragile Economy 19 Year-Old Palestinian Killed in Attempt to Stab Police Officers 200 Women Demand Peace Deal on Israel’s Lebanese Border Turkey Expects Up to 400,000 to Flee Mosul Commentary: Al-Monitor: “Obama’s Three Diplomatic Options for Mideast Peace” By Uri Savir, Honorary President, Peres Center for Peace New York Times: “Israel Knows That Putin Is the Middle East's New Sheriff” By Shmuel Rosner, Political Editor, Jewish Journal S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor News Excerpts October 19, 2016 Jerusalem Post Israel Faces Stiff Fight Next Week Over UNESCO Vote on J'lem Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to contact many of the leaders of 21 member nations of the UNESCO World Heritage Committee Executive Board in hopes of swaying them not to support next week’s vote on a resolution that ignores Jewish ties to the Temple Mount. Israel’s Ambassador to UNESCO Carmel Shama-Hacohen said that Israel faced a stiff battle before that committee because it’s composed of countries with a history of voting against Israel. See also, “Despite UNESCO Vote on Jerusalem, Israel Hails Small Step Forward” (Times of Israel) Ha’aretz Palestinian Envoy: UN Vote About Occupation, Not Al-Aqsa A Palestinian representative to UNESCO defended on Tuesday the omission of any reference to Jewish claims to the Temple Mount in a contentious resolution passed last week about Jerusalem. Mounir Anastas told reporters the vote was "about occupation." Israel has protested the resolution's failure to include any reference to the site where al-Aqsa Mosque stands as revered by Jews as the Temple Mount, or the site where two ancient temples once stood. Elias Sanbar, a second Palestinian representative to the organization, said that Jordan had "wanted" to include the Jewish reference. Israel Radio News Bachar Report: Israel Was Unprepared for 2014 Tunnel Threat A military source said the IDF investigation into the tunnels on the Gaza border demonstrated that the IDF had been aware of the tunnels’ existence but had not realized the severity of the threat they posed. The investigation found that the brigades were not prepared to handle the tunnels in the course of fighting, certainly not on the scale discovered during Operation Protective Edge. The committee that conducted the investigation, headed by Maj. Gen. Yossi Bachar, found many flaws in the army’s preparations in planning the operational orders and in coordinating between the various units. Among other things, the report stated that the enemy’s control and command systems and its rocket array operated continuously up until the last day of the fighting. See also, “IDF Probe: Army Failed to Internalize, Train for Tunnel Threat” (Times of Israel) Ynet News Israel to Assist Egypt's Fragile Economy Israel is preparing for a series of large-scale projects with Egypt after many years of separation in economic cooperation between the two countries. The joint discussions on the projects reflect not only a rapprochement between the two countries, but also an urgent need for improved infrastructure in Egypt given the severe economic crisis that threatens the political stability of the country. After the signing of the 1979 peace agreement, economic cooperation between the two countries saw a significant boost, which was gradually reduced after Egypt expressed little interest in its renewal. See also, “Israel to Assist Boosting Egypt Economy” (BICOM) 2 Times of Israel 19 Year-Old Palestinian Killed in Attempt to Stab Police Officers A Palestinian woman allegedly attempted a stabbing attack at the Tapuah Junction, south of Nablus in the West Bank, Wednesday, and was shot dead by Israeli police. There were no injuries to Israeli security forces or civilians. “Attempted stabbing at Tapuah Junction,” the Israel Police tweeted. “A short while ago a female suspect approached Border Police officers at the scene holding a knife. When she failed to heed their calls to halt, they shot and neutralized her.” In a subsequent statement confirming the alleged attacker was killed, police said officers fired warning shots in the air before opening fire on her. They said she was 19 years old, from the nearby village of Asira ash-Shamaliya. Ynet News 200 Women Demand Peace Deal on Israel’s Lebanese Border More than 200 women and several men took part in a rally on the Israeli side of the Israel-Lebanon border on Tuesday. The rally was organized by Women Wage Peace, a social movement working "to bring about a viable peace agreement," as their Facebook page states. After the rally, the women marched toward the northern town of Metula, raising signs that featured then prime minister Menachem Begin, Egyptian president Anwar Sadat and US president Jimmy Carter sign the Israel- Egypt Peace Treaty in 1979, with the words "Yes. It's possible" written above. The organization is due to carry out another protest in front of the Prime Minister's House in Jerusalem on Wednesday. Times of Israel Turkey Expects Up to 400,000 to Flee Mosul Turkish official says between 100,000 and 400,000 people could flee the fighting in Mosul and make their way toward Syria, Iraq’s Kurdish-administrated region or the border with Turkey. Kerem Kinik, head of the Turkish Red Crescent organization, tells The Associated Press on Wednesday that the “humanitarian aspect” of the Mosul operation had not been well thought out by the coalition forces. He warns that with more than 3 million people already displaced in Iraq, officials would struggle to cope with the exodus. Kinik says his organization was working with officials in northern Iraq and the Iraqi Red Crescent to help support humanitarian efforts there. Some 20 Turkish aid trucks had been dispatched to the region. New camps for up to 20,000 families are under construction by international aid agencies in northern Iraq and could be ready within a week. The Turkish official says he believes the refugees would mostly be “taken under control” within Iraq, but added that Turkey is prepared for a refugee influx. See also, “Turkey Joins Coalition for Mosul Operation” (Hurriyet Daily News) 3 Al-Monitor – October 16, 2016 Obama’s Three Diplomatic Options for Mideast Peace By Uri Savir Both Israeli and Palestinian leaderships are opposed to policy moves by US President Barack Obama on a two-state solution. Obama is apparently going to make an announcement on US Middle East policy after the Nov. 8 elections, Al-Monitor has learned from a senior American diplomat in Tel Aviv. Currently, Obama is fully engaged in the election campaign on the side of Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton. He will do very little on the Middle East front, so as not to damage her chances among American Jewry. Suspicious that Obama will make a policy move on the region, 88 senators have signed a letter to the president asking him to veto any UN Security Council resolution that is not balanced. That letter was advanced by the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC with some help by Democrat activists and by the pro-Israel pro-peace J Street lobbying organization. A senior official at J Street told Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity that the organization conditioned its support of the letter on the wording “an unbalanced resolution.” Hence, the door is left open for a balanced US-sponsored Security Council resolution in the future. Obama’s considerations in making a November declaration are based on his wishes to leave a Middle East policy legacy to his successor, thus avoiding a policy vacuum until the next administration takes over. Such a declaration will also set the record straight in relation to his own Middle East policy efforts. According to the US diplomat in Tel Aviv, the White House and the State Department are weighing which policy measure to take, out of three possibilities. The first is a presidential speech outlining a framework for a two-state solution along the lines of Secretary of State John Kerry’s framework. The second possibility is a presidential speech outlining a more regional approach, linking the coordination on the fight against the Islamic State together with Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia to a two-state solution process. A third possibility would be a US-sponsored Security Council resolution based on the US-proposed framework of spring 2015. In any case, the US policy framework for a presidential speech will most probably consist of the following elements: a two-state solution based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed land swaps and stringent security arrangements within a two-state solution with Israeli military presence along the Jordan River and mutual recognition between the two states, including the recognition of Israel as the homeland of the Jewish people. It will not include the right of return for Palestinian refugees, but a just and agreed solution to the Palestinian refugees, mainly through international compensation and the financing of the resettlement of refuges within the Palestinian state. Another important element would be regional cooperation and normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states based on the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. 4 The senior US diplomat told Al-Monitor that the preferred option right now is for the president to outline a regional plan, with the Arab Peace Initiative and anti-regional terror as a basis.