RETAIL MARKET STUDY WATSON ROAD COMMERCIAL DISTRICT CRESTWOOD, MISSOURI Prepared For: City of Crestwood, Missouri August 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Number Title Page Number I. ASSIGNMENT 1 Study Assumptions 1 II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 General Findings 5 Conclusions 6 Watson Road Commercial District Consumer Expenditure Potential and Market Penetration 16 Alternative Redevelopment Scenarios – Watson Road Commercial District 21 Recommendations 23 Retail Sales Potential – Watson Road Commercial District Following Implementation 27 Watson Road Land Use Needs Discussion 31 III. METHODOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS 34 Methodology 34 Definitions 37 IV. GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS 40 V. WATSON ROAD COMMERCIAL DISTRICT 46 Watson Road Land Use Needs 50 VI. RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS 53 Trade Area Delineation 61 Retail Expenditures 75 Watson Road Commercial District Consumer Expenditure Potential and Market Penetration 78 Alternative Redevelopment Scenarios – Watson Road Commercial District 83 Recommendations 85 Retail Sales Potential – Watson Road Commercial District Following Implementation 89 Watson Road Land Use Needs Discussion 93 Melaniphy & Associates, Inc. Experience Addenda LIST OF TABLES Number Title Page Number 2.1 Primary Trade Area Zip Code Demographics 9 2.2 Secondary Trade Area Zip Codes Demographics 10 2.3 Driving Time Analysis 12 2.4 Annual Average Daily Traffic Volumes – 2002 13 2.5 Watson Road Commercial District – Total Retail Potential Expenditures, 18 Estimated Market Penetration and District Sales by Trade Area Segment – 2004 2.6 Entertainment Expenditures, Primary and Secondary Trade Area Segments Watson Road Commercial District – 2004 20 2.7 Suggested Target Retailers Watson Road Commercial District 24 2.8 Watson Road Commercial District – Total Retail Potential Expenditures, Estimated Market Penetration and District Sales by Trade Area Segment 2009 and 2014 29 4.1 Demographic Changes, St. Louis Metropolitan Area, City of St. Louis, and Its Components 41 4.2 City of St. Louis Population Change – 1980, 1990, 2000, 2004, and 2009 42 4.3 25 Major Employers – St. Louis Metropolitan Area – 2004 43 4.4 Labor Force, Employment, Unemployment, and Unemployment Rates St. Louis Region by County – 2004 44 4.5 20 Fastest Growing Industries – St. Louis Metropolitan Area – 2000 to 2010 45 5.1 Existing Property Uses – Watson Road Commercial District 2005 49 6.1 Driving Time Analysis – 5, 10, and 15 Minutes 56 6.2 Annual Average Daily Traffic Volumes – 2002 59 6.3 Primary Trade Area Zip Code Demographics 64 6.4 Secondary Trade Area Zip Codes Demographics 65 6.5 Market Support Factors – Primary and Secondary Trade Area 2004 66 LIST OF TABLES (Continued) Number Title Page Number 6.6 Competitive Retail Inventory 71 6.7 Economic Census: Retail Trade and Foodservices – St. Louis Metropolitan Area – 1997 76 6.8 Estimated Per Capita Retail Expenditures by Retail Category for 2004, 2009, and 2014 77 6.9 Watson Road Commercial District – Total Retail Potential Expenditures, Estimated Market Penetration and District Sales by Trade Area Segment – 2004 79 6.10 Entertainment Expenditures, Primary and Secondary Trade Area Segments Watson Road Commercial District, 2004, 2009, and 2014 82 6.11 Suggested Target Retailers Watson Road Commercial District 86 6.11 Watson Road Commercial District – Total Retail Potential Expenditures, Estimated Market Penetration and District Sales by Trade Area Segment 2009 and 2014 91 6.12 Watson Road Commercial District, Total Retail Expenditure Potential and Market Penetration by Trade Area Segment, 2009 and 2014 92 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page Number Description Number 1.A Aerial Map – Watson Road Commercial District 3 1.B Crestwood Mall Site Plan 4 2.A Primary and Secondary Trade Area Map 8 2.B Driving Time Analysis 11 2.C Competitive Inventory Map 14 2.D Watson Road Commercial District Uses 32 5.A Watson Road Commercial District Property Uses 47 5.B Overlapping Trade Areas Map 48 6.A Location Map –Crestwood, Missouri 54 6.B Driving Time Analysis 57 6.C Missouri Department of Transportation Traffic Count Map 58 6.D Primary and Secondary Trade Area – Watson Road 62 6.E Primary Trade Area – Watson Road Commercial District 63 6.F Competitive Inventory Map 70 Market Feasibility Analysis – Watson Road Commercial District Page 1 SECTION I ASSIGNMENT Our assignment has been to undertake a retail and entertainment market study of the Watson Road Commercial District, including Westfield Crestwood Center (hereafter referred to as Westfield Crestwood Center), to evaluate the Crestwood area market, analyze trends, and determine the market for redevelopment of the District. Specifically, we were focused upon the market potential within the trade area, evaluated strength and weaknesses, determined current market penetration, studied the existing tenant mix, analyzed the impact of existing and proposed competition, determined the market for new retailers, and defined alternative redevelopment scenarios. The study focused upon the 2004 District performance and a projection to 2009 and 2014. For these years, demographics were forecast, Personal Consumption Expenditures determined, Entertainment potential analyzed and projected, the District’s market penetration computed and forecast, and alternative redevelopment scenarios determined. Finally, the actions necessary to implement the recommendations were identified. Figure 1.A is an aerial map of the Watson Road Commercial District in Crestwood. Figure 1.B is as site plan of Westfield Crestwood Center, the largest retail concentration in the Watson Road Commercial District. STUDY ASSUMPTIONS The project was carried out under the following assumptions: 1. No major malls, shopping centers, or major big box competitors, other than the Sunset Hills Manor Redevelopment and others identified in this report will be constructed within the Primary or Secondary portions of the Trade Area. Any such development would require a reassessment of the conclusions and recommendations contained herein. 2. The economy of the United States will not experience another major recession or any significant adjustment in consumer spending objectives or attitude. Furthermore, gasoline prices will not exceed $3.00 per gallon. If this occurs, significant changes may occur in shopping patterns. 3. The United States will not expand the current war on terrorism or escalate military operations overseas, nor will the United States experience any major catastrophe or terrorist act that would interrupt shopping, driving, mail delivery, or spending patterns. 4. A considerable amount of data has been gathered, sorted, and analyzed. Much of the data has come from agencies of federal, state, county, and the city of St. Louis, along with local real estate companies. Additionally, secondary sources have been utilized, where pertinent. Where possible, our staff has examined the information for its validity and authenticity. Since we have no way of controlling the development of these data sources, we take no responsibility for any inaccuracy. During the course of the study program we have utilized standard statistical techniques involving both subjective and objective judgments in order to arrive at the conclusions and recommendations. 5. We assume that the properties in the District will be available, buildable, and that there are no environmental or subsurface conditions that would prohibit development or redevelopment. 6. Both Famous-Barr and Sears will exercise their lease options and remain in Westfield Crestwood Center. Nonetheless, there are a number of external forces that could prevent redevelopment of the Market Feasibility Analysis – Watson Road Commercial District Page 2 center and improvement of Watson Road. First, Federated-May and Sears-Kmart are reassessing their stores and store strategies following their mergers. Should either take the drastic action of closing a Westfield Crestwood Center store, the Center and the District would be negatively impacted. Moreover, the action of one department store might initiate a similar action by the other. Should this happen, the Center would require additional redevelopment strategies. We have assumed that these department stores will continue to be an important part of the Westfield Crestwood Center. 7. We certify that we have no present or prospective interest in the properties in the St. Louis area that are the subject of this report and we have no personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved. Our compensation is not contingent upon any action or event resulting from this analysis, opinions, or conclusions, in or use of this report. N Westfield Corporation, Inc. 33823 ^ ORYNOXK HR] J 0 34ZN LRUUX RUY GTMKRKY I G0 >2247/396= *532+ 69=/6678 Nov 05, 2004 SITE PLAN 32> I XKYZ^ UUJ VRGaG I XKYZ^ UUJ. S U 85348 *536+ >84/45>7 S Market Feasibility Analysis – Watson Road Commercial District Page 5 SECTION II EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This section of report provides an Executive Summary of the Watson Road Commercial District Study findings, conclusions, recommendations, and comments including Westfield Crestwood Center. This report was prepared for the City of Crestwood, Missouri and ownership of Westfield Crestwood Center. GENERAL FINDINGS 1. The St. Louis Metropolitan Area Population The St. Louis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) includes the City of St. Louis, St. Louis County, St Charles (part), Jefferson (part), Franklin, Lincoln, and Warren counties in Missouri and St. Clair, Monroe, Madison Clinton, and Jersey counties in Illinois. The 2000 Census data indicates