WESTERN BALKANS AT THE CROSSROADS: EDITED VOLUME Western Balkans at the Crossroads: Ways Forward in Analyzing External Actors’ Influence Edited Volume Edited by Ioannis Armakolas, Barbora Chrzová, Petr Čermák and Anja Grabovac April 2021 Western Balkans at the Crossroads: Ways Forward in Analyzing External Actors’ Influence Edited Volume Editors: Ioannis Armakolas, Barbora Chrzová, Petr Čermák and Anja Grabovac Authors: Ioannis Armakolas, Maja Bjeloš, Petr Čermák, Barbora Chrzová, Ognjan Denkovski, Stefan Jojić, Srećko Latal, Gentiola Madhi, Martin Naunov, Tena Prelec, Senada Šelo Šabić, Anastas Vangeli, Stefan Vladisavljev Proofreading: Zack Kramer Published by the Prague Security Studies Institute, April 2021, Prague The publication is written within the framework of the project “Western Balkans at the Crossroads: Ways Forward in Analyzing External Actors Influence“ led by the Prague Security Studies Institute with the support of the National Endowment for Democracy. ISBN: 978-80-903792-8-2 © PSSI 2021 The Prague Security Studies Institute, Pohořelec 6 118 00 Prague 1, Czech Republic www.pssi.cz Content About the Project and Authors 5 Introduction 8 Part I — Domestic Narratives on External Actors’ Presences 1. ‘Our Brothers’, ‘Our Saviours’: The Importance of Chinese Investment for the Serbian Government’s Narrative of Economic Rebound 12 Tena Prelec 2. “Steel Friendship” — Forging of the Perception of China by the Serbian Political Elite 23 Stefan Vladisavljev 3. China’s Ideational Impact in the Western Balkans, 2009–2019 39 Anastas Vangeli Part II — Domestic Cleavages and External Actors’ Involvement – An Active or Passive Role? 4. BiH’s Decisive Electoral Reform Strikes New Divisions Among Internal and External Actors 56 Srećko Latal 5. Erdogan as an Admired Sultan or an Instrument in Political Competition? Locals’ Perceptions of the Turkish Presence in Serbian Sandžak 75 Stefan Jojić 6. Is the EU Taking Friends for Granted? Partisanship and Support for External Actors in North Macedonia 89 Martin Naunov 7. Infodemics, a Snap Election, and a (Lukewarm) Western Welcome: North Macedonia’s Identity at Stake on Twitter Study 1 — Instruments of Disinformation 100 Study 2 — Content of Disinformation 115 Ognjan Denkovski Part III — Co-responsibility of the Domestic Political Elite for the Harmful Impact of Foreign Engagements 8. Eco-monsters & Eco-fighters: China’s Investments in Serbia’s Heavy Manufacturing Industry as Seen Through an Environmental Lens 128 Tena Prelec 9. The Sum of All Fears – Chinese AI Surveillance in Serbia 141 Maja Bjeloš 10. “Our Brother Erdogan” – From Official to Personal Relations of Political Leaders of Albania and Kosovo with the Turkish President 153 Gentiola Madhi Part IV — Challenges of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Foreign Influences 11. COVID-19 Raises Geopolitical Stakes in the Balkans 169 Srećko Latal 12. The Western Balkans: Between the EU and a Hard Place 184 Srećko Latal 13. Western Balkan Discourses on and Positioning Towards China During the COVID-19 Pandemic 200 Anastas Vangeli Reflection Paper — Domestic Demand for Non-Western Influence in the Western Balkans 212 Senada Šelo Šabić Conclusion — Foreign Actors’ Influence in the Western Balkans: Openings, Closures and Inside-Out Perspectives 216 Ioannis Armakolas WESTERN BALKANS AT THE CROSSROADS: ABOUT THE PROJECT & AUTHORS About the Project “Western Balkans at the Crossroads: Ways Forward in Project outputs consist of fourteen analytical studies Analyzing External Actors' Influence” is a follow-up project investigating selected areas and facets of external actors’ that aims to build upon a knowledge base established in engagement in the region and of journalistic articles the preceding project “Western Balkans at the Crossroads: drawing on their findings. All the studies are also part of this Assessing Non-Democratic External Influence Activities,” final edited volume, further including two reflection papers. which mapped, analyzed and publicized Russian, Chinese, A short version of the volume is translated to Albanian, Turkish, and Gulf States’ influence activities in the region. Bosnian/Croatian/Serbian and Macedonian. The innovative project focuses on in-depth socially rooted research and investigative journalism. Its design reflects the Project duration: 10/2019 – 04/2021 aim to go beyond the existing research and conventional Project coordinators: Barbora Chrzová, Petr Čermák and analytical frameworks while combining a variety of Anja Grabovac methodological approaches. Scientific advisor: Ioannis Armakolas About the Prague Security Studies Institute The Prague Security Studies Institute (PSSI) is a non- post-communist states. PSSI’s mission is to build an ever- profit, non-governmental organization established in early growing group of informed and security minded policy 2002 to advance the building of a just, secure, democratic, practitioners dedicated to the development of democratic free-market society in the Czech Republic and other institutions and values in Central and South-East Europe. Contributors Ioannis Armakolas is a Scientific Advisor for the Western South-East Europe, Sarajevo). He holds a PhD in Social and Balkans at the Crossroads project. He holds a position of Political Sciences from the Faculty of Social and Political Assistant Professor of Comparative Politics of Southeast Sciences at University of Cambridge. Europe at the Department of Balkan, Slavic and Oriental Studies, University of Macedonia (Thessaloniki), Senior Maja Bjeloš is a public policy analyst and advocate in the Research Fellow and Head of the South-East European area of security sector reform, including women, peace Programme at the Hellenic Foundation for European and and security. She has ten years of professional experience Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP) and Europe’s Futures Fellow at working for the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy. She the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. He is also the has researched largely on various security issues, gender Editor-in-Chief of the scientific journal ‘Southeast European equality and the women, peace and security, with her and Black Sea Studies’, published by Routledge (Taylor & research being published in domestic and international Francis, United Kingdom) & ELIAMEP, and of the ‘Political publications. She was a part-time visiting lecturer at the Trends & Dynamics in Southeast Europe’, the magazine of Faculty of Political Sciences at Belgrade University and a the regional office of Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES Dialogue coordinator of the Civil Society Network ‘Women, Peace and 5 WESTERN BALKANS AT THE CROSSROADS: ABOUT THE PROJECT & AUTHORS Security in Serbia. She graduated from the international theories in political discourse in Croatia and North relations program at the Faculty of Political Science at Macedonia, as part of the COST COMPACT Action. University of Belgrade, where she also completed a post- graduate Master’s programme in international security. Anja Grabovac is a coordinator of the Western Balkans at the Crossroad project. She holds a Master’s degree Petr Čermák joined PSSI’s Western Balkans at the in International Relations and European Studies from Crossroads project team as a coordinator in April 2020. Metropolitan University Prague. During her studies, Anja He is a PhD candidate in International Relations at the spent one year on Erasmus at Central European University Faculty of Social Studies of Masaryk University in Brno Budapest. Her research interest revolves around the and junior researcher at the Faculty of Social Sciences of Western Balkan countries and their European integration Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic. His research path. Anja has previously been involved in projects is focused on the role of ethnic politics and power-sharing focusing on national identities in Central-Eastern Europe or mechanisms in post-conflict areas of the Western Balkans, on the diffusion of EU norms in BiH. with a special emphasis on its local level dimensions. He has conducted extensive field research in different regions Stefan Jojić is a PhD candidate at the Faculty of Political of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. The findings of his Sciences, University of Belgrade, where he previously research were published in several peer-reviewed journals acquired his MA degree. Besides interests in the and presented at international conferences. He graduated in International Relations theory, great power politics and the International Relations at Masaryk University in Brno. He also phenomenon of China’s rise, his research interests include had an opportunity to study and conduct his research at Serbian and the Western Balkans countries’ foreign policy, universities in Sarajevo, Zagreb, Ljubljana, Graz and Tirana. international relations in the Middle East, as well as the relations among different ethnic groups in those regions. Barbora Chrzová is a Program Manager at the Prague Security Studies Institute and has been leading both phases Srećko Latal covered Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo of the Western Balkans at the Crossroad project. She has and the rest of the Balkans during the wars in the 1990s managed the team, edited several PSSI’s publications, articles as Associated Press correspondent, and later editor and and briefing papers, organized conferences and other events, Sarajevo bureau chief. He also served as an overseas and also contributed with her analytical work and writing. correspondent from other places such as Afghanistan She is a PhD candidate at the Institute of International