The Climate Crisis Climate Change Impacts, Trends and Vulnerabilities of Children in Sub Saharan Africa The Climate Crisis Climate Change Impacts, Trends and Vulnerabilities of Children in Sub Saharan Africa WASH Section, UNICEF ESARO 30 October 2020 Authors Dr Samuel Godfrey (PhD, MSc CEng, BA(Hons), CEnv, CWem) Regional Advisor, Water Supply, Sanitation, Hygiene (WASH) / Regional Focal Lead Climate, Environment and Energy United Nations Children Fund (UNICEF) East and Southern Africa Regional Office (ESARO) Farai Angela Tunhuma (BEng, MSc, MBA) WASH Specialist – Climate and Urbanization UNICEF ESARO Suggested citation: Godfrey, S. and Tunhuma, F.A., The Climate Crisis: Climate Change Impacts, Trends and Vulnerabilities of Children in Sub Sahara Africa, United Nations Children’s Fund Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Office, Nairobi, September 2020 Contents Contents ............................................................................................................................ iii Contributors ....................................................................................................................... v Acronyms .......................................................................................................................... vi Foreword ......................................................................................................................... viii Executive summary ........................................................................................................... x 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change .................................................... 4 1.2 Definition of eyk terminologies .............................................................................. 7 2. Climate change scenarios and projections for Africa ............................................. 10 2.2 Sub-regional impact of climate change ................................................................ 14 2.2.1 West Africa ............................................................................................... 14 2.2.2 Southern Africa ......................................................................................... 15 2.2.3 Eastern Africa ........................................................................................... 16 2.2.4 The Eastern African Paradox ..................................................................... 17 2.3 Climate change and urbanization in Africa ............................................................ 17 2.4 Climate change, migration and displacement in Africa ........................................ 22 2.5 Climate hazards, risks, impacts and vulnerabilities in Africa ................................ 23 2.6 The cost of inaction to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa .............................. 26 3. Climate change policy and financing in Africa ........................................................ 29 3.1 Nationally determined contributions .................................................................... 29 3.2 Country-level policy .............................................................................................. 29 3.3 National Adaptation Programmes of Action ......................................................... 27 3.4 Status of National Adaptation Plans ..................................................................... 32 3.5 Financing mechanisms for managing climate change .......................................... 33 4. Rationale for engagement ........................................................................................ 34 4.1 Rationale for UNICEF climate change interventions ............................................ 34 4.2 Climate change and children ................................................................................ 38 4.3 Climate change and gender.................................................................................. 39 5. UNICEF in action ........................................................................................................ 41 5.1 UNICEF Advising and supporting government systems ...................................... 41 5.2 Low-carbon approaches when working with children .......................................... 42 iii 5.3 Developing a climate-informed country programme ............................................ 43 Case study 1: Developing a climate-informed country programme in Madagascar ............................................................................... 44 5.4 Reducing the carbon footprint of operations ........................................................ 47 Case study 2: Reducing the carbon footprint of UNICEF operations through prepositioning critical supplies in South Sudan ............................. 47 5.5 Climate change, innovation and the circular economy ......................................... 49 Case Study 3: Innovation and circular economy approaches in Côte d’Ivoire ...... 49 5.6 Climate change and nutrition................................................................................ 51 Case Study 4: UNICEF–WFP Joint Resilience Programming for food security in Somalia ......................................................................................... 52 5.7 Climate change and WASH .................................................................................. 53 Case Study 5: Climate-resilient WASH in Ethiopia ............................................... 55 Case Study 6: Building resilience in the Sahel through Multi sectoral programming................................................................................. 57 5.8 Climate change, social inclusion and protection ................................................... 60 Case Study 7: Social protection to strengthen resilience of mothers and children in Kenya......................................................................................... 61 5.9 Climate change and education ............................................................................. 62 Case study 8: Building resilience through inclusion of DRR in the education system in Madagascar .................................................................. 63 5.10 Climate change and health ................................................................................... 65 Case study 9: Impact of the 2015–2016 El Niño on child health in southern Africa .......................................................................... 66 5.11 Climate change, youth engagement and advocacy .............................................. 67 Case study 10: UNICEF–Scout Movement partnership for youth engagement on climate change in Eastern and Southern Africa ............................ 68 6. Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 71 Annex 1: Examples of gender dimensions, adaptive strategies and possible interventions. ......................................................................................................74 References ........................................................................................................................ 77 iv Contributors The authors would like to sincerely thank several contributors, without whom this report would not have been possible. Overall advice, guidance and critical inputs were provided by: Carmen Aiazzone, Partnerships Specialist, UNICEF ESARO; Lars Bernd, Programme Specialist, UNICEF WCARO; Sophie Chavanel; Chief of Communications UNICEF Côte d’Ivoire; Kudakwashe Chimanya, Nutrition Specialist, UNICEF ESARO; Nicola Dell’ Arciprete Partnerships Specialist, UNICEF ESARO; Christina de Bruin, Senior Advisor, UNICEF Brussels HQ; James Elder, Regional Chief of Communication, UNICEF ESARO; Natalie Fol, Regional Adviser Communication for Development, UNICEF ESARO; Gabriele Fontana, Regional Adviser, Health, UNICEF ESARO; Moustapha Harouna, Chief WASH, UNICEF Mauritania; Dawda Jawara, WASH Specialist, UNICEF WCARO; Kitka Goyol, Chief of WASH, UNICEF Ethiopia; Christine Haufner, Consultant, UNICEF Brussels HQ; Jean Benoit Manhes, UNICEF Deputy Representative, Madagascar; Joan Matji, Regional Adviser, Nutrition, UNICEF ESARO; Norman Muhwezi, Innovation Specialist, UNICEF Cote d’Ivoire; Gautam Narasimhan, Senior Adviser, Climate, Environment, Resilience and Peace, UNICEF New York Headquarters (NYHQ); Bo Viktor Nylund, Deputy Regional Director, UNICEF ESARO; Nicholas Rees, Policy Specialist, Climate, Environment, Resilience and Peace, UNICEF NYHQ; Bayiha Ruben, Regional Advisor WASH, UNICEF WCARO; Akshay Sinha, Emergency Specialist, UNICEF ESARO; Julia Szczuka; Elena Trajkovska, Regional Chief of Supply & Procurement, UNICEF ESARO; Consultant UNICEF ESARO; Fiona Ward, Water Specialist, UNICEF NYHQ. v Acronyms °C Degrees Celsius ANC Antenatal Care ART Anti-Retroviral Therapy BMZ Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (Germany) CRED Center for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters CO2 Carbon Dioxide CPD Country Programme Document CRC United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child CSIR Council for Scientific and Industrial Research DRR Disaster Risk Reduction EM-DAT Emergency Events Database ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation ESARO Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Office FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FEWSNET Famine Early Warning Systems Network GCF Green