355.433.2:656.62 (4) 911.3:32] :656.62 (4) Scientific article GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOSTRATEGIC IMPLICATION OF POSIBLE NAVIGABLE CHANNEL DANUBE-MORAVA-VARDAR-THESSALONICA ГЕОПОЛИТИЧКИ И ГЕОСТРАТЕГИСКИ ИМПЛИКАЦИИ ОД МОЖНИОТ ПЛОВЕН КАНАЛ ДУНАВ-МОРАВА-ВАРДАР-СОЛУН Toni Mileski, Ph.D. Faculty of Philosophy – Institute for security, defence and peace. [email protected] Emanuela C. Del Re, Ph.D. University “Niccolò Cusano” of Rome – University “Roma Tre” of Rome. Chair at EPOS International Mediating and Negotiating Operational Agency [email protected] [email protected] Абстракт: Трудот се занимава со геополитичка анализа на можната реализација на стратегискиот проект за пловен канал Дунав-Морава-Вардар-Солун. Претставени се историските интенции за изградба на еден таков канал кој би претставувал надградба на веќе постоечкиот пловен речен систем Рајна-Мајна-Дунав. Притоа, се потенцираат геополитичкие, геоекономските и геостратегиските импликации и се укажува на можното геополитичко и геостратегиско редефинирање на регионот на Југоисточна и Централна Европа. Клучни зборови: геополитика, геостратегија, пловен канал, Кина, Југоисточна Европа, Централна Европа. Abstract: The paper deals with the geopolitical analysis of the possible implementation of strategic project on navigable canal Danube-Morava-Vardar- Thessalonica. Presented historical intentions to build such a canal would represent over structure of the existing river system navigable Rhine-Main-Danube. The highlight geopolitical, and geoeonomic and geostrategic implications and suggests potential geopolitical and geostrategic redefining the region of Southeastern and Central Europe. Keywords: geopolitics, geostrategy, navigable channel, China, South- Eastern Europe, Central Europe. INTRODUCTION The idea of linking the Danube to the Aegean Sea is an idea dating back to the last century. The possibilities for such connection arise from geographical and topographical characteristics and predispositions on the ground. This means that meridian direction of extension of the rivers Morava and Vardar and the possibility of connecting them through 51 South Morava and Pchinja allows certain assumptions about the implementation of the navigable river route. What is missing in this physical- geographical preference, and this paper will attempt to give its contribution to the completion of the importance of time sailing the Danube - Morava - Vardar - Thessalonica, is the modern geopolitical, geoeconomic and geostrategic aspects of its meaning. As an illustration, the length of the floating route along the river Danube to the Black Sea and through it to the Aegean Sea is around 1889 km. By building a floating road Danube - Morava - Vardar - Thessalonica, this length would be about 700 km. But is cutting the route a benefit of navigable canals or behind it is another interest that may be new geopolitical and geostrategic space structuring of the Southeast Europe and beyond. In this context, it will be analyzed and Chinese geopolitical and geoeconomic interests in South Eastern Europe and in Central Europe, is the states of the Visegrad group . The paper starts from the assumption that the ship channel is feasible, which obtained the first positive signal to Chinese investors, although even now surfacing all technical, financial, environmental and political problems that are real. Overcoming them will be assuming the geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic analysis. NAVIGABLE CANAL DANUBE-MORAVA-VARDAR-THESSALONICA: FANTASY OR REALITY? For the first time navigability of the river had to be mentioned in the period after 1841 when the first recorded attempts at raising the issue of Morava navigable. From 1818 to 1841 Kragujevac was the capital of Serbia. Hence, the possible interest of creating buoyancy of the Morava River. The French were first interested in such a project. At that time the so-called small "zip" ships arrived at Chuprija the town, located about 60 km. from Kragujevac. The aim was to explore opportunities for buoyancy of Morava. During the rule of Milos Obrenovic, French - Serbian steamer company was established for river traffic on the rivers Danube, Sava and Morava. During the period of 1844 to 1864, this company called "French - Serbian steamer company" brings together its interests with “French Main Steamer Company" founded by decree of Napoleon III on September 14, 1850 and that the main task was to establish river traffic on the rivers Danube, Sava and Morava. Serbia showed great interest in the regulation of the Morava River, which crosses the country in the middle and that determines the export of Serbian goods, and imports of goods necessary for Serbia. Navigable Morava represents the best way to make it the main commercial road of Serbia. In July 1859, a French company asked from Milos Obrenovic an exclusive license for their steamer to move the Morava River for a period of thirty years. After lengthy negotiations, the contract was signed on September 18, 1860. However, due 52 to questionable business qualities of the French company, the contract was terminated in 1864. Serbia has not given up on the possibility of buoyancy of the Morava River. So in 1867 were carried out the first serious research capabilities of the Morava River to allow river traffic. For the purposes of research, a special ship called "Morava" was designed, commanded by Ante Aleksic, an engineer officer, who made separate measurements of the mouth of the Morava River near Chuprija city. Since then, it was recommended the introduction of permanent river traffic the Morava River, but this intention has never appealed because of lack of necessary infrastructure investments. In 1904, efforts were made to revive the idea of buoyancy from the Danube to the Aegean Sea. In that time there has been an attempt to bring the project to England and Germany which should be the main investors. Influential financial circles in England and Germany were being contacted, and also some suggestions have been given to make Americans interested in specific project U.S. firm in New Jersey, in 1907, made a preliminary project for navigable route, Morava and Vardar, which at that time was called "line of European economic gravity in relation to the Suez Canal". (Jovanovski, 2011.) In 1909, to the Serbian and Turkish government, by Nikola Stamenkovic, a professor of Faculty in Belgrade, was submitted a report and estimate of the cost to build a navigable route Danube - Morava - Vardar - Thessalonica. However the political situation, especially the relationship of Europe to the Balkans, put out of reality all possible ideas and political support for the project. In 1912 Balkan wars start and immediately after them, a new geopolitical reality in the Balkans and approaches to remediation damages. Therefore, any activity directed toward the realization of navigable route Danube - Morava - Vardar - Thessalonica was dying to 1961. After that year, there were numerous studies and projects dealing with the possibility of creating a navigable canal Danube - Morava - Vardar - Thessalonica. In these studies, almost all technical parameters of the channel: route, hydrological and geological composition profiles of the route, the sailing route structure, and structures of the wider catchment area of Morava and Vardar are determined. Although designed for the needs of the Yugoslav economy, the projects can be useful in the present conditions. With the eventual construction of the navigable channel (Danube - Morava - Vardar - Thessalonica), the Region will gain access to navigable roads (Rhine - Main - Danube) of developed Europe, while Europe would get access to warm seas which would be shorter than existing route through the Black Sea. Connecting the pools of the rivers Morava and Vardar, extending their beds, construction of canals and construction of hydropower and final connection of Morava and Vardar to Thessaloniki, is a significant factor in many ways. 53 Primarily, it will enable transport of goods and people, the flow of rivers will be regulated, production will be driven and economies of countries will receive a new impulse. It will also solve problems with power supply. Cutting routes to the Mediterranean, will allow Central Europe to connect to the Suez Canal. In fact, the route through Belgrade, the Danube, the Black Sea and the Aegean Sea is approximately 1,880 km. The new navigable channel Morava-Vardar to Thessaloniki would be around 700 km, which is largely cut navigation route from Central Europe to the Mediterranean Sea. It is assumed that the ship channel would be long from 655 to 700 km and will start from the Great Morava, then proceed through the South Morava, Vardar and Pchinja and end in Thessaloniki. Serbian - Macedonian - Greek navigable Stream will be a continuation of the sailing system Rhine -Main - Danube. (Radaković, 2012) Given the weak an economy of the countries through which route is to pass, the most interested country to deliver the entire project is China. At present study of feasibility of the project is prepared by the Chinese corporation “China Gezhouba Group". The corporation is known for hydropower complex "Three Gorges" on the River Jangcengjang. Serbian government signed an agreement with the corporation of making feasibility study. It is assumed that the ship channel will allow transportation of goods by ships which will be with loads of 1,300 to 1,500 tons which can fit in the sailing ship channel mode Rhine -Main – Danube. SERBIAN, MACEDONIAN AND GREEK "INSIDE" VIEW Most interested