NZ population projections through to 2030 For SARINZ By: Gordon Cessford & Bronek Kazmierow B Kazmierow – Recreation and Tourism Consulting Origins Sponsors: ◦ SARINZ ◦ NZ Oil and Gas Supporters - SARINZ stakeholders and broader network 2 Aim: Identify foreseeable patterns & trends in SAR incidents operational responses through to 2030 Primary objectives: Assess how SAR volunteer response will be affected by projected population changes Identify changes in the nature of SAR callouts over the next 20 years Identify how these will impact training needs 3 1. Approach ◦ Model 2. Demand: NZ population 3. Key demographic profiles & projections ◦ Aged & tourism 4. Supply ◦ Agency profile contrasts: Surf v. AREC Coastguard v. LandSAR 5. Incident type profiles 6. Trends 7. Summary ◦ Recommendations 4 Develop and apply a conceptual model Analyse relevant secondary data sources demographic projections incident records other information sources review of relevant literature Undertake projections 5 Demand factors Incident profiles – general and targetted Forecasts ○ tourism/recreation ○ other (including census population, age, ethnicity) Supply factors Volunteer profiles and projections Outcomes Equilibria or tension? Directions of change Implications for response 6 DEMAND FACTORS OVERALL SAR SUPPLY FACTORS OUTCOMES Overall NZ population demographic characteristics and projections SAR call-out demographic SAR volunteer demographic characteristics – national , profiles – national, regional and regional and targeted segments targeted segments Projections and trends Projections and trends - related to recreation SAR - related to profiles of different call-out profiles SAR volunteer segments (e.g. - related to non-recreation Surf-lifesaving, amateur radio SAR call-out profiles operators, LandSAR search etc) NZ recreation – SAR capability/capacity – participation, preferences, existing features & trends profiles and capabilities - National and regional patterns -National and regional EQUILIBRIA or TENSION - Volunteer training, patterns Resulting from the interaction retention, recruitment status -Forecast trend between DEMAND amd and implications SUPPLY factors NZ tourism -activity patterns and trends - international and domestic tourists The INITIAL RESULTS are baseline levels and patterns Supply of SAR incidents Actions Demand Actions The LONGER TERM OUTCOMES are future readiness, effectiveness and efficiency of SAR response 7 Census ◦ Regional distribution ◦ Projections Regional populations Age and dependency ratios 8 Auckland Region 32.35% 21.94% Canterbury Region 12.96% 11.49% Wellington Region 11.15% 8.43% Waikato Region 9.50% 9.31% Bay of Plenty Region 6.39% 14.71% Manawatu-Wanganui Region 5.52% -2.77% Otago Region 4.81% 4.71% Northland Region 3.69% 8.33% Hawke's Bay Region 3.67% 3.50% Taranaki Region 2.59% -2.31% Southland Region 2.26% -6.41% Tasman Region 1.11% 17.52% Gisborne Region 1.10% -2.81% Nelson Region 1.06% 6.48% Marlborough Region 1.06% 10.84% West Coast Region 0.78% -3.64% Area Outside Region 0.02% -17.20% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Regional population as a percentage of NZ overall population (2006) Population change 1996-2006 9 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 North Island 3,000,000 South Island New Zealand 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2006(3) 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 10 Auckland region 573,700 Canterbury region 112,400 Wellington region 75,000 Waikato region 73,100 Bay of Plenty region 58,100 Manawatu-Wanganui region 7,600 Otago region 26,100 Northland region 18,600 Hawke's Bay region 6,200 Taranaki region 1,300 Southland region -5,200 Gisborne region 0 Tasman region 7,400 Nelson region 5,600 Marlborough region 5,200 West Coast region -800 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2006(3) Population change 2006-2031 11 2006 2031 41.7 Marlborough region 50.9 40.3 West Coast region 47.3 40.3 Tasman region 47.3 39.4 Nelson region 44.8 38.8 Northland region 45.3 38.0 Southland region 43.4 37.9 Taranaki region 44.0 37.7 Bay of Plenty region 42.6 37.6 Canterbury region 42.3 37.5 Hawke's Bay region 43.2 36.8 Otago region 40.9 36.6 Manawatu-Wanganui … 41.2 35.8 New Zealand(1) 40.2 35.6 Waikato region 40.2 35.3 Wellington region 39.8 34.6 Gisborne region 40.6 33.7 Auckland region 37.7 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 Median age (years) 12 2,500,000 35,000 30,000 4,500 2,000,000 9,200 25,000 323,700 1,500,000 11,700 65+ 20,000 65+ 133,800 581,900 9,100 40–64 15,000 40–64 1,000,000 414,900 15–39 15–39 10,000 9,400 676,000 7,700 524,500 0–14 500,000 0–14 5,000 6,500 5,300 297,700 363,200 0 0 West Coast Region West Coast Region Auckland Region Auckland Region 2006 2031 2006 2031 100.0% 100.0% 90.0% 90.0% 80.0% 80.0% 70.0% 70.0% 60.0% 60.0% 50.0% 50.0% West Coast Region 2006 40.0% Auckland Region 2006 86.3% 40.0% West Coast Region 2031 Auckland Region 2031 30.0% 30.0% 54.8% 52.1% 20.0% 20.0% 54.6% 45.9% 31.5% 10.0% 30.8% 10.0% 31.7% 28.9% 21.3% 25.7% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% Dependency Dependency Dependency Dependency Dependency Dependency ratio (total) ratio (aged) ratio (young) ratio (total) ratio (aged) ratio (young) 14 Applying the model Baseline data Some examples Projections for dementia incidents Projections for incidents based on recreation/tourism and population forecasts 15 45 40 NZ SAR Subjects % 35 NZ 65+ SAR Subjects % 30 25 20 % of SAR subjects 15 10 5 0 Tramping Walking Other Hunting (all) SAR Subject Recreation Activities 90 80 Dementia Subjects % 70 NZ Population % 60 % 50 40 30 20 10 0 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ Age group (10yr) 60 Dementia % 50 Recreation % 40 30 % of 65+ group age 20 10 0 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Age groups (5yr) 80 Dementia 70 Recreation 60 50 40 30 % of 65+ group age 20 10 0 Urban Areas Rural Town Rural Natural Urban Fringe Rural Remote Areas Farmland Natural Areas/Park Area Types 30 Dementia Subjects Incident % 25 NZ 65+ Age-group % 20 15 10 % of 65+ Age-group 5 0 BOP Nelson Otago Waikato Taranaki Tasman Auckland Northland Southland Gisborne Wellington Canterbury WestCoast Marlborough Hawkes Bay Manawatu-Wanganui New Zealand 150 North Island 281 North Island 43 Auckland region 88 Auckland region 41 South Island 73 South Island 30 Wellington region 54 Wellington region 26 Bay of Plenty region 46 Bay of Plenty region 18 Waikato region 33 Waikato region 13 Marlborough region 25 Marlborough region 12 Manawatu-Wanganui region 20 Manawatu-Wanganui region 11 Nelson region 20 Nelson region 11 Northland region 21 Northland region 8 Canterbury region 14 Canterbury region 8 Taranaki region 13 Taranaki region 6 Otago region 10 Otago region 2 Hawke's Bay region 3 Hawke's Bay region 1 Southland region 2 Southland region 1 West Coast region 2 West Coast region 1 Tasman region 2 Tasman region 0 Gisborne region 0 Gisborne region 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 Dementia SAR callouts Dementia SAR callout index SAR Callouts Dementia Base (4 year period 2005-09) SCDB index (per 10000 residents based on 2006 pop) Projected SCDB (4 year period 2025-2029) for over 65 year dementia series SCDBI (per 10000 residents based on 2026 pop) 22 Many 65+ SAR subjects have recreation incidents – especially Tramping and Walking in outdoor settings But at 65+ the occurrence of non-recreation dementia incidents increases Dementia: Over 92% urban locations near home, rare anywhere else Closely linked to population home pattern – sustained urban SAR pressure Tourism is a major variable in incident patterns – impact is uneven It is independent of NZ population distribution, and impacts more in remote areas It significantly boosts the recreation component of SAR demand New Zealanders will keep travelling for recreation, but this may change in locations 100 NZ Subjects % 90 Tourist Subjects % 80 70 60 50 40 % Subjects of SAR 30 20 10 0 Marine SAR Subjects % Land SAR Subjects % 26 100 Recreation Incidents 90 Non-Recreation Incidents 80 70 60 50 40 % of SAR subjects 30 20 10 0 Tourist Subjects % NZ Subjects % 27 100 90 NZ Subjects % 80 Tourist Subjects % 70 60 50 40 30 % of ActivitiesSAR Recreation 20 10 0 4WD Walking Rafting Fishing Tramping Climbing Kayaking Other Activites SkiingBoarding MountainBikingExtremeSports 28 60 50 Tourist Subjects % NZ Subjects % 40 30 20 % of typesSAR Recreation 10 0 Other Rafting Walking Fishing Tramping Climbing Kayaking Hunting Deer Mountain Biking SkiingBoarding Flying activities Top-10 SAR Recreation Incident types 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 % SARof SubjectsLand 20 Tourist Subjects % 10 NZ Subjects % 0 BOP Otago Nelson Tasman Waikato Taranaki Northland AucklandGisborne Southland Canterbury Wellington WestCoast Marlborough HawkesBay ALL NZ REGIONS ManawatuWanganui 30 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 % of SAR subjects 20 Non-Locals % Locals % 10 0 BOP Otago Waikato Taranaki Nelson* Tasman* Gisborne* Northland Auckland Southland Canterbury Wellington West Coast Marlborough Hawkes Bay Manawatu WanganuiIncident Regions 31 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Tourists % % of SAR subjects 30% Other Regions % Locals % 20% 10% 0% BOP Otago Nelson* Tasman* Waikato Taranaki NorthlandAuckland Southland Gisborne* Canterbury Wellington West Coast Marlborough Hawkes Bay Manawatu WanganuiIncident Regions 32 READ Columns down SAROP Incident Region (Column) Subject Home Hawkes Manawatu West All Auckland BOP Canterbury Gisborne Marlborough Nelson Northland Otago Southland Taranaki Tasman Waikato Wellington Region (Row) Bay Wanganui Coast Victims Overseas 6 7 25 5 3 14 15 15 12 39 39 26 25 17 5 37 22 Auckland 89 4 2 0 2 2 5 0 2 4 4 9 4 15 1 4 9 BOP 0 64