Protein pathwaysAccelerating sustainable food system transformation through business innovation Table of contents Why we are focusing on protein transformation .................................................................................................. 5 The importance of proteins for humans .................................................................................................................. 5 Fact 1: Proteins are an essential part of human diets, yet they are over-consumed overall .............................. 5 The importance of proteins for the environment .................................................................................................... 6 Fact 2: Proteins have a significant impact on the environment, with recognized negative effects depending on protein sources… ................................................................................................................................................. 6 …but also positive effects .................................................................................................................................... 7 Why is it urgent to “bend the curve”? ..................................................................................................................... 8 Fact 3 – The animal protein sector is a significant contributor to climate change .............................................. 8 Fact 4 – The agricultural sector impacts biodiversity extensively ........................................................................ 8 Navigating science and business controversies on proteins .................................................................................... 9 The objectives of this white paper ......................................................................................................................... 10 The scope of solutions ....................................................................................................................................... 11 The FABLE Calculator .............................................................................................................................................. 11 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 11 FABLE countries ................................................................................................................................................. 11 Methodology limitations ................................................................................................................................... 12 Horizon 2050: Projected protein consumption ...................................................................................................... 13 Regional trends driving the global evolution ..................................................................................................... 13 Evolution of global consumption ....................................................................................................................... 15 Horizon 2030: Pathways for business-driven acceleration .................................................................................... 17 Business-driven acceleration: Why and how? ................................................................................................... 17 Quantifying the impacts ..................................................................................................................................... 17 Solution spaces and their impacts ..................................................................................................................... 17 Recommendations and call to action ................................................................................................................. 24 Prioritizing business solutions along the value chain ............................................................................................. 24 Policy recommendations ........................................................................................................................................ 25 Addressing nitrogen, phosphorus and water ......................................................................................................... 27 Call to action .......................................................................................................................................................... 28 Endnotes ........................................................................................................................................................... 29 Annexes ............................................................................................................................................................. 31 FABLE Countries ..................................................................................................................................................... 31 FABLE food categories ............................................................................................................................................ 31 FABLE pathway design summary ........................................................................................................................... 32 FABLE targets ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 FABLE pathways ................................................................................................................................................. 33 Population .......................................................................................................................................................... 33 Dietary shifts ...................................................................................................................................................... 33 Food loss and waste ........................................................................................................................................... 34 Crop and livestock productivity ......................................................................................................................... 34 Land-use, land-cover change ............................................................................................................................. 34 Agricultural trade ............................................................................................................................................... 34 About FReSH ..................................................................................................................................................... 35 Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................................................... 35 Protein Pathways Accelerating sustainable transformation through business innovation 2 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................ 36 Business representatives .................................................................................................................................... 36 FReSH representatives ....................................................................................................................................... 36 Protein Pathways Accelerating sustainable transformation through business innovation 3 Protein Pathways Accelerating sustainable transformation through business innovation 4 Why we are focusing on protein transformation Achieving our Healthy People, Healthy Planet vision requires unprecedented global collaboration on several levers of system transformation at the same time. Business action is necessary on diets as they connect to all aspects of the food system. This paper discusses the complex issue of protein transformation and actions business leaders are taking and must take to respond to this challenge. Proteins are at the heart of fierce arguments within the food system because of their environmental impacts and because of the continuing debate about how best to balance them in human diets. As such, they have to align, at a similar pace if not faster, with the targets established in the WBCSD CEO Guide to Food System Transformation ( Figure 1: Food system transformation goals, grounded in science and aiming to deliver against the Sustainable Development Goals, Paris Agreement and developing biodiversity targets ). Figure 1: Food system transformation goals, grounded in science and aiming to deliver against the Sustainable Development Goals, Paris Agreement and developing biodiversity targets1 The importance of proteins for humans Fact 1: Proteins are an essential part of human diets, yet they are over-consumed overall Everyone needs 50-70 grams of protein a day. Protein is essential to producing muscle, hormones, enzymes and antibodies in human immune systems. However, 4 billion people and growing eat too Protein Pathways Accelerating sustainable transformation through business innovation 5 much protein, with the emerging middle class in India, China and Africa consuming more animal protein. However many people in developing regions of the world lack sufficient access to animal protein (Figure 2) for nutrition and health. A critical health objective is therefore to reach adequate protein