Analyse et optimisation technico-économiques des nouveaux services de mobilité basés sur l’usage des véhicules autonomes Jaâfar Berrada To cite this version: Jaâfar Berrada. Analyse et optimisation technico-économiques des nouveaux services de mobilité basés sur l’usage des véhicules autonomes. Economies et finances. Université Paris-Est, 2019. Français. NNT : 2019PESC1002. tel-02513386 HAL Id: tel-02513386 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-02513386 Submitted on 20 Mar 2020 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Thèse de doctorat d’Université Paris-Est Jaâfar BERRADA TECHNICAL-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SERVICES BASED ON AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES Thèse dirigée par Fabien Leurent Soutenue le 12 Février 2019 Jury : Rémi Maniak.Professeur Ecole Polytechnique (Rapporteur) Jakob Puchinger. Professeur Centrale Supélec (Rapporteur) Patrice Aknin. Directeur de recherche IRT SystemX (Examinateur) Zoi Christoforou. Professeur Université de Patras (Examinatrice) Goknur Sirin. Docteur Responsable projets R&D Renault (Examinatrice) Fabien Leurent. Professeur ENPC (Directeur de thèse) Nadège Faul. Chef de projet VEDECOM (Co-Encadrante) Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my first source of inspiration, strength and confidence, to my Dad, without whom nothing in my life would be possible, to my Mom, the reason I am who I am and to my beloved Noussaiba, for her unwavering support and boundless affection. J. Berrada, VEDECOM and LVMT 3 J. Berrada, VEDECOM and LVMT 4 Acknowledgements First and foremost, my deepest gratitude goes to my advisor Prof. Fabien Leurent. Over the last years, he has served as an excellent teacher and mentor, providing guidance, reviewing my work and stretching my abilities. His knowledge, passion and rich curiosity have motivated, and will continue to motivate, my research pursuits. I would also like to extend my gratitude to my supervisor at VEDECOM, Nadège Faul, for her unconditional support of my research project. Her leadership made this thesis an enjoyable work. Additionally, the help provided by Prof. Ingmar Andreasson invaluably progress this research. Its vision has helped guide the project to its current state, and I am continually grateful to have access to his wisdom. Also, I must particularly thank Shadi Sadeghian for her invaluable contribution to the launch of this research thesis at VEDECOM. I want also to thank Alexis Poulhès, my colleague at LVMT, for his availability to discuss and advise me to deal with demand simulation issues, Wilco Burghout, for sharing with me its knowledge and experience in developing supply simulation tools, and Zoi Christoforou, for her precious advises and valuable tips throughout my thesis, including to achieve the stated-preference survey. I am sure that we will continue to work together during next years. Thanks also to Nicolas Doucet and Florence Prybyla for their support on demand modelling using PTV VISUM model. More generally, I would like to thank my colleagues of LVMT, Xavier for the good time we had last years, but also Luc, Cyril, Bachar, Gaële, Mallory, Virginie(s), Sophie, Sandrine(s), Florent, Nicolas, Xioyan, Maylis and many others who had made my past three years so enjoyable. My precious experience has been marked furthermore by the incredible people of VEDECOM: Maxime (1 and 2), Bofei, Toussaint, Tatiana, Abishek, Charlotte, Vincent, Younes, Leurent, Ronan, etc. To my dear friends: Naoufel, our discussions over these years were instructive. Your ambition, your resolution and your sacrifices for people you care about make of you an exceptional person. Zakaria, Alae and Hamza, I admire you each in such different ways. I can never get enough of discussing with you. Assem, your permanent presence is invaluable. Brahim, Hassan, Ayoub, Abdessamad, Asmaa, Hajar, Hafssa, Sara; all my friends of the association “Les Chaines d’Or”, and all others who encouraged me during these years, thank you: I wish you success in your respective projects. Finally, thank you to my incredible family. My Grandmother, aunts and uncles, thanks for your inconditional support. Si Mohamed and Khadija, thanks for your encouragements. Your unconditional kindness is exceptional. Oumayma and Zaynab, you are wonderful sisters. Thanks for your joyful spirit, your assistance as well as your efforts to make us happy. Hamza, Marwa and Douae, thanks for always believing in me. I admire your energetic and ambitious nature. Keep working and never give up your dreams. My father-in- J. Berrada, VEDECOM and LVMT 5 law, my mother-in-law, thanks for your unconditional love and for always pushing me to be better. My dad, my mom, and my beloved Noussaiba, I owe you everything. Thank you. J. Berrada, VEDECOM and LVMT 6 Abstract Autonomous Vehicles (AV) are becoming more of a reality, promising beneficial yet potentially disrupting changes to our urban transportation systems. This technology presents the potential to reduce energy consumption and crash occurrences, cut travel costs and minimize urban space occupancy for parking purposes. Yet barriers to implementation and mass-market penetration remain. Economically, the upfront costs in the initial stage will likely lack affordability. Socially, users could be reluctant to change their daily travel routines. Technically, the interactions with the other components of the transportation system remain uncertain. There are other challenges regarding liability, security, ethics and data privacy, too. This thesis contributes to the ex-ante study of AV-based mobility systems through the identification, design and assessment of upcoming Business Models (BM) articulated around AVs. In particular, it brings about a systemic analysis of “new” mobility services (especially car-sharing, carpooling and ride-sourcing services) in order to identify autonomous taxis (aTaxis) and autonomous shuttles (aTransit) as two of the most relevant forms of services that may enjoy wide spreading. Then, we focus on a service of aTaxis and we put forward a microeconomic model framework to evaluate strategic setups of aTaxis provider. The model framework comprises three levels (operational, tactical and strategic), and integrates three pressure forces (regulation, unit costs and demand preferences). An application is then conducted on a stylized area (Orbicity) and a real urban case (Palaiseau, a city in Paris area). Simulation results show that automation has the potential to improve both the mobility performances and the economic efficiency of the urban transportation system. Additionally, the density economies of supply and demand are evaluated by controlling both the fleet size and the number of users for a fixed study area. In particular, the framework application on Palaiseau proved that increasing by ten the fleet size of aTaxis involves 1 % more users (+15 passengers) yet 50 % less of profit. A stated-preference survey supports the model framework and suggests that aTaxis will likely be used for short-distance (2 to 5 km) commuting trips by two user profiles: (1) non-motorized young users (less than 30 years old) and (2) motorized active population between 30 and 50 years old. The thesis takes an interdisciplinary approach combining (1) a qualitative analysis that starts from a review of existing works and adds first a marketing analysis of Business Models based on AVs and second a systemic analysis of an aTaxis service, and (2) a quantitative analysis, situated midway between microeconomics and spatial simulation. Keywords: Autonomous vehicles, Shared Mobility, Business Models, Qualitative bi- diagrams, Microeconomics, Demand modelling J. Berrada, VEDECOM and LVMT 7 Contents Dedication.............................................................................................................................. 3 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................... 5 Abstract ................................................................................................................................. 7 Contents ................................................................................................................................ 1 List of Figures ....................................................................................................................... 11 List of Tables ........................................................................................................................ 14 List of Abbreviations ..................................................................... Erreur ! Signet non défini. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 15 1. Context: From technology to services ....................................................................... 15 2. Problem statement ................................................................................................... 21 3. Purpose and Contributions .......................................................................................