Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1994-03 Precipitating the decline of terrorist groups : a systems analysis DeGhetto, Todd H. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/30893 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS PRECIPITATING THE DECLINE OF TERRORIST GROUPS: A SYSTEMS ANALYS!S by Todd H. DeGhctto March, 1994 Thesis Advisor JamcsJ. Wirtz Approve<J for public release, distribution IS unlimited The s~s D2111ill DUDLEY KNOX LlBRPRY NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOl MONTEREY CA 93943-5101 Unclassified SecuntyCl ..l!ifiClllionoflhis~ REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Is Report SecurityCI ..sificBlIon: Unclassified lbReslricli""MBI'klI\g!i 2aScaonlYCJMSlfic:ationAuibority 3 Di5lributioofAvailabilityofRepon lbDecl8SSlfi""lioniDowngraililgScbcdule Approved fur public release~ distribution is l-.llimited. 4 Pemnning Olpnizalioo Report Number(.) SMOIIi1oring0rpnizllionReponNumber(s) 6aN..-acofPerfunningOrilaniution 7a NlIIDe of Moniloriog OrgaDlzation Naval Postgraduate School Naval PostgradUIltl: School 6cAddress(cil)l.&/ak.andZlPcodI) 1bAddress(city._e. tmdZIP cotk) Monterey CA 93943-5000 MontereyCA93943-SOOO Addresslcily.SI<W.Qtt(iZlP~ WSourceofFuDdlngNumbcr.l Program Eli:ment No ProjecL No Task No Work Unit Accession No 11 Tille (incl'" ~ily cltu.ljkmklll) PRECIPITATING mE DECLINE OF TERRORIST GROUPS: A SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 12 PClllOlloi Autboti') Todd H. DeGbetto 16 SupplemCOlory Notation The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position 0 the Depanment of Defense or the U.s. Government. 18Sub;1ea. TQm$ (com", ... "" !f""<UJaryundidcmi/Yl!I'bI<>ct""",btI,) Subgroup Terror ... a System.. Red Bripdos. FLQ. Critical EmIr, DcI"IIilimi.:B1lon. MeI'l:lIIial Success. Burnout. 19Abs1f11C1(contI""""" ",i/""""'_""'whybl<>d""""-J This thesis shows how a government actor can use systems theory to hasten the deeline of a terrorist group. The author assumes terrorist groups are social organizations, therefore terrorist groups come to value organizational survival over ideological or programmatic achievements. The same determinants that cause social organizations to decline will cause terrorist organizations to decline. Using systems theory to model terrorism as a system, it is possible to show h~ '" ",fl,o"~ "~,d""mi';"" 'n i"'~'11 \he terrorist group's rateofdel;line. The systems model allows a government actor to build intervention strategies tailored to counter a specific terrorist organization. The government actor can use the model to identify and then target the terrorist's weak points. It also enables the government actor to detennine its own strengths and to use tbern against the terrorist system weak points. Finally, the analysis tests the model against elISe studies of the Red Brigades in Italy, and the Front De Liberation du Quebec (FLQ) in Canada. A case study of Abu Nidal tests the proposition that terrorist groups, like other soeial organizations, eventually come to value organizational survival over ideological or programmatic achievements. 21 Abmac:tSecurity ClassifiCAlion Unclassified 2lb Telepbono (1IIc1udt heaC",*) I22eOfficcSymbol 656-3483 INS'WZ DO FORM 1473,84 MAR 113 APR edition may be useduaLilexbausted 'ty cla" ifiS"W9f !bispys All OIher edlhons ore obsolere Unclassified Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Precipitating the Decline of Terrorist Groups: A Systems Analysis by Todd H. DeGhetto Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., University of Colorado Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Author: Approved by: Thomas C. Bruneau, o,airman Department of National Security Affairs ABSTRACT rhis thesis ~ho\\\ hm\ a government actor can use systems them) 10 hasten the decline of a terrorist grotlp. The ~lUthor aS~tlffieS terrorist groups :tre social organI7ation~, thcrefore terronst groups come to value orgrul!7 ... tiundl suryiHd oyer Ideological or programmanc .lchieyements The same deternllmmts that cause ~ocml organilalwns to decline will cause terronst llrgalllzalions to decline. Usmg systems theory to model terronsm as a s)~tem, It 1~ posslhle to sho\\ how to influence these detemllll.lnts to mcrease the terronst group's rdte of declme. rhe s:~tems model alIl1\\s a government actor to build interyention ~tratcgle~ t<Iilored to counter ~\ specific terron~t organi/allOn. The government actor can u.\e the model to ldentif) and then target the terrorist's I\eak points. It abo en.lble~ the go\emment actor 10 determme its 0\\11 strengths and to u<;e them again<;t the terrorist s} ~tem weak points Flll.llly, the analy~is te~ts the model against case studies of the Red Rrig.lcies m Italy. and the Front De l.iberatlon du Quebec (FLQ) 111 ('<Inada. A C.lse ~tudy of Abu Nidal te~ts the prop,)sllion that terrorist groups. like other so<.:ial organizations, eventuall} come to v.llue org:mi/ationJ.l surVIval oyer ideological or programm.ltic achieycments. TABLE OF CONTENTS I INTRODL'CTTO'\" 11 THE DEI ERMINANTS OF ORGANIZAI']O'\"AT. D[CUNE ,\, TNTER'\AL FACTORS EHECTlNG ORGANILHIO::\AT DECLINE 10 1 Critical Error 10 DelegltlIntzatlon 11 3 . .'v1c:rcurial Succcss l3 4. Burnout 14 U. EX"IER:\AL L\CIORS EFFECTING ORGA'\"IL'\TlONAT DECLINE 15 I [nvlronment.l1 Entrop~' 15 GO\ emment Rcspon~c 16 Mdia 17 C. EffECTS OF DECLINE 18 D. RESPONSES TO DECUNE 1Y DUDLEY KNOX LIBRARy NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHoor MONTEREY CA 93943-5101 III TERRORISM AS A SYSTEM 22 A. INTERVENTION STRATEGIES . 23 IV CASE STUDIES ................................ 3I A. THE ABU NIDAL ORGANIZATION. 32 B. THEFLQ. 36 1. The FLQ's Pre Critical Error Phase 37 2. The Critical Error Phase: The October Crisis . 45 3. Post Critical Error Phase . 50 C. THE RED BRIGADES .. 52 1. Red Brigades Pre-Critical Error Phase , . 54 2. The Critical Error Phase 59 3, Post Critical Error Phase " ... " .... " ... ,', ... , ..... 65 4. Swnrnary 66 D. CONCLUSION 68 V CONCLUSION. 70 BIBLIOGRAPHY .. 74 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 81 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This thesis demonstrates how a government can use systems theory to hasten the decline of a terrorist organization. It shows how government's can develop a counter­ terrorist strategy by selecting intervention points to prompt the tetTorist organization's decline. The analysis tests this hypothesis in case studies of the Red Brigades in Italy, and the Front De Liberation du Quebec (FLQ) in Canada. A case study of Abu Nidal tests the proposition that terrorist groups like other social organizations, eventually come to value organization survival over ideological or programmatic achievements. Most literature on terrorism explains the causes, group histories, or character profiles of the people who join terrorist organizations. There have been few studies on terrorist organizational decline. Nor has the current terrorism literature given a government the tools necessary to develop an effective counter-terrorist policy. Organization theory can help solve this dilemma. Organization theory is a vast literature encompassing every aspect of organizations and their dynamics. Two subsets of organization theory, useful for this thesis, are decline theory and systems theory. Decline theory provides the determinants of organizational decline. These determinants are important when developing counter-terrorist policy. Policy that influences these determinants can promote organizational decline. There is, however, a short fall in decline theory: it does not explain how to influence these detenninants, or how to intervene in an organization to hasten its decline. vi To sohc tiils dilemma, we must turn to systems th~ory. System~ theory provides the tools l1eces~ary [0 analyze the relationship between s}stcm \ariablcs, allowing an actor to interYcnc and change an organization. This thesis apphes system~ theory to terrorist organizations. It gives a government actor the tools necessary to look at a terrorist group at any point in time and to de\'elop an intervention strategy designed to hasten the terrorist organization's decline. vii I I~TRODllCnON I hIs thesis demonstrates how a gOvernment actur' (.:an lISC systems theory to hasten the UI.:t;line of a terrorist organizatlOn. The ~nal)~ls modcls terronsm <1.., a u;nrull1e s)stem rhl~ allows a go\..:rnment actor to dcvelop countcr-WTTurisl stfJtegy h; ...;el~cting Intervcntlon puint.' to prompt the terronst organi7ation'~ (kclinc. Findlly, the anal;~i., tests the model agdlfist easc studle<; of the Red Rrig.:tde\ III It .. t1y. and the Front De liberation du Quehee (flQ) in CruJadJ. ..\ (':J.51.: study of Ahu l\ldal will be used to tcst thc propositIOn that tcrron~t group\ ,ire socul orgdl1llJ.tions, thcrcf{lfc they eventuall~ COUll.: to valu..: organi/ation ~un "'al o,cr Ideological 0f rrogramm~tie .:tehicH:mcnts 110st literaturc on terrorism explain, the c~uses, group hlstone~, orcharaeter prnfik~ of the people who jom teTTonst or¥aml.. tiun~ I ittle effort ha~ heen uelhcal<:d to thc study of thc dyn~rnics of a leTTori~t org.:tnizatH)n llild its life cycle. \\-1Jat e~uses 11 ttl rise, esealate in violence, peak.:t~ an organi7.:ttion, and suhsequently dechnc? There hosc heen few studIes on terrorist organilation~1 dcclmc. Martha Crcnshaw':: compares llild contrasts ~xlstmg theories on terrorism's dedine unti glHemments' ahdity to influence the teTTonst~ org~lli?atlon's dccline _md the oq;dnizatlon's subsequcnt re,lctiollS to its trouble~ She discusscs three