Independent Verification and Evaluation of the End Child Marriage Programme: Ethiopia Midterm Review Report Department for International Development March 2015 & B&M Development Consultants PLC, Ethiopia Independent Verification and Evaluation of the End Child Marriage Programme – Ethiopia Midterm Review Report Department for International Development March 2015 5722-001 DFID i Independent Verification and Evaluation of the End Child Marriage Programme – Ethiopia Table of Contents Table of Contents .............................................................................................................................. ii Acronyms .......................................................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................... 2 Section One: Background and Introduction .................................................................................... 8 1.1 The End Child Marriage Programme in Amhara ........................................................................ 8 1.2 Purpose of the ECMP Midterm Review ..................................................................................... 8 1.3 Background and Rationale for the MTR .................................................................................... 9 1.4. Contents of the Report ............................................................................................................ 10 Section Two: Methodology ............................................................................................................. 11 2.1 The Approach ...................................................................................................................... 11 2.1.1 Scope of Work ..................................................................................................................... 11 2.1.2 Principles ............................................................................................................................. 11 2.1.3 Participation and Inclusion .................................................................................................... 12 2.1.4 Qualitative not Quantitative .................................................................................................. 12 2.1.5 The Field Sites ..................................................................................................................... 12 2.2 The Young Evaluators and Young Ambassadors ..................................................................... 13 2.2.1 Why Young People were Included ......................................................................................... 13 2.2.2 Who the Young People Were ................................................................................................ 13 2.2.3 Objectives of including the Young Evaluators/Young Ambassadors (YEs/YAs) .......................... 13 2.2.4 Partnership Arrangements .................................................................................................... 14 2.2.5 Results of including Young People in the MTR team ............................................................... 14 2.3 Framework of Enquiry .......................................................................................................... 15 2.3.1 The Framework .................................................................................................................... 15 2.3.2 The Question Areas .............................................................................................................. 16 2.3.3 Mixed Methods Used ............................................................................................................ 17 2.3.4 Participatory Methods ........................................................................................................... 18 2.3.5 Responsibilities within the Team ........................................................................................... 19 Section Three: Summary Assessment ........................................................................................... 20 3.1 Contents of the section .......................................................................................................... 20 3.2 Study Ethics .......................................................................................................................... 20 3.3 Progress towards Outputs ...................................................................................................... 21 3.4 Relevance of the programme ................................................................................................. 25 3.5 Effectiveness of the programme ............................................................................................ 26 3.1.1 Progress and Achievements .................................................................................................. 26 3.5.2 Challenges ........................................................................................................................... 29 3.5.3 Attribution: what Makes the Programme Effective? ................................................................ 30 3.6 Sustainability/Exit Strategy ................................................................................................... 30 5722-001 DFID ii Independent Verification and Evaluation of the End Child Marriage Programme – Ethiopia 3.6.1 Achievements ...................................................................................................................... 30 3.6.2 Challenges ........................................................................................................................... 31 3.7 Conclusion from the Programme Assessment ......................................................................... 33 Section Four: Value for Money ....................................................................................................... 34 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 34 4.2 Programme costs, benefits, cost-effectiveness and cost-efficiency ........................................... 34 4.2.1 February 2014 estimates of Avoided Early Marriages (EM) ...................................................... 34 4.2.2 Testing the assumptions behind the 37,500 CM target using mid-line survey data .................... 37 4.2.3 Implications of adopting a Core kebele + model on the CM target .......................................... 38 4.2.4 Quantifying benefits from ECMP – health benefits .................................................................. 39 4.2.5 Quantifying benefits from ECMP – education benefits ............................................................. 40 4.3 Programme costs and cost:benefit ratio ................................................................................. 41 4.3.1 Estimating a discounted benefit:cost ratio ............................................................................. 41 4.3.2 Cost-effectiveness ................................................................................................................ 42 4.3.3 Cost Efficiency and Cost Drivers ............................................................................................ 45 4.3.4 Summary VFM statement...................................................................................................... 46 4.4 Sustainability ....................................................................................................................... 46 Section Five: Theory of Change and Results Framework ............................................................. 47 5.1 Social Norm Change ............................................................................................................. 47 5.2 A Holistic Approach .............................................................................................................. 48 5.2.1 Summary of our knowledge of what works ............................................................................ 49 5.3 Implications for the ECMP Theory of Change ......................................................................... 50 5.4 Description of the ECMP Theory of Change ............................................................................ 53 5.5 The Log-frame ..................................................................................................................... 55 Section Six: Key Revisions and Options for Phase Four ............................................................... 60 6.1 Supporting government ownership ........................................................................................ 60 6.1.1 How to embed ECMP in BOWYCA ......................................................................................... 60 6.1.2 A Unified Plan ...................................................................................................................... 60 6.1.3 Monitoring and Evaluation .................................................................................................... 61 6.2 Phase Four Options .............................................................................................................. 61 6.2.1 Key MTR Issues ..................................................................................................................