A11102 blS.TflE NATL INST OF STANDARDS & TECH R.I.C. A1 1102615982 /Theory and application of expert system QC100 .U57 N0.717 V1986 C.2 C.1 NBS-PUB- in NBS SPECIAL PUBLICATION 717 a % T / U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE/National Bureau of Standards Theory and Application of Expert Systems in Emergency Management Operations Gass and Chapman, Editors . Tm he National Bureau of Standards' was established by an act of Congress on March 3, 1901. The M Bureau's overall goal is to strengthen and advance the nation's science and technology and facilitate their effective application for public benefit. To this end, the Bureau conducts research and provides: (1) a basis for the nation's physical measurement system, (2) scientific and technological services for industry and government, (3) a technical basis for equity in trade, and (4) technical services to promote public safety. The Bureau's technical work is performed by the National Measurement Laboratory, the National Engineering Laboratory, the Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology, and the Institute for Materials Science and Engineering The National Measurement Laboratory 2 Provides the national system of physical and chemical measurement; • Basic Standards coordinates the system with measurement systems of other nations and • Radiation Research furnishes essential services leading to accurate and uniform physical and • Chemical Physics chemical measurement throughout the Nation's scientific community, in- • Analytical Chemistry dustry, and commerce; provides advisory and research services to other Government agencies; conducts physical and chemical research; develops, produces, and distributes Standard Reference Materials; and provides calibration services. The Laboratory consists of the following centers: The National Engineering Laboratory Provides technology and technical services to the public and private sectors to Applied Mathematics address national needs and to solve national problems; conducts research in Electronics and Electrical 2 engineering and applied science in support of these efforts; builds and main- Engineering tains competence in the necessary disciplines required to carry out this Manufacturing Engineering research and technical service; develops engineering data and measurement Building Technology capabilities; provides engineering measurement traceability services; develops Fire Research 2 test methods and proposes engineering standards and code changes; develops Chemical Engineering and proposes new engineering practices; and develops and improves mechanisms to transfer results of its research to the ultimate user. The Laboratory consists of the following centers: The Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology Conducts research and provides scientific and technical services to aid Programming Science and Federal agencies in the selection, acquisition, application, and use of com- Technology puter technology to improve effectiveness and economy in Government Computer Systems operations in accordance with Public Law 89-306 (40 U.S.C. 759), relevant Engineering Executive Orders, and other directives; carries out this mission by managing the Federal Information Processing Standards Program, developing Federal ADP standards guidelines, and managing Federal participation in ADP voluntary standardization activities; provides scientific and technological ad- visory services and assistance to Federal agencies; and provides the technical foundation for computer-related policies of the Federal Government. The In- stitute consists of the following centers: The Institute for Materials Science and Engineering Conducts research and provides measurements, data, standards, reference Ceramics materials, quantitative understanding and other technical information funda- Fracture and Deformation mental to the processing, structure, properties and performance of materials; Polymers addresses the scientific basis for new advanced materials technologies; plans Metallurgy research around cross-country scientific themes such as nondestructive Reactor Radiation evaluation and phase diagram development; oversees Bureau-wide technical programs in nuclear reactor radiation research and nondestructive evalua- tion; and broadly disseminates generic technical information resulting from its programs. The Institute consists of the following Divisions: 'Headquarter! and l aboratories al Gaithersburg, MD, unless otherwise noted; mailing address Gaithersburg, MD 20899. : Some divisions within the center are located at Boulder, CO 80303. 'l (x-.ii'.'cl ai Boulder, CO, with some elements at Gaithersburg, MD. Theory and Application of Expert Systems in Emergency Management Operations NBS Proceedings of a Symposium RESEARCH INFORMATION Held at the Department of Commerce CENTER Washington, DC April 24-25, 1985 (Xuoo ,uXi Edited by: Saul I. Gass College of Business and Management 12, University of Maryland College Park, Maryland 20742 and Robert E. Chapman National Engineering Laboratory National Bureau of Standards Gaithersburg, Maryland 20899 Sponsored by: Federal Emergency Management Agency 500 C Street, S.W. Washington, DC 20472 and Center for Applied Mathematics National Engineering Laboratory National Bureau of Standards Gaithersburg, Maryland 20899 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS, Ernest Ambler, Director Issued November 1986 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 86-600546 National Bureau of Standards Special Publication 717 Natl. Bur. Stand. (U.S.), Spec. Publ. 717, 264 pages (Nov. 1986) CODEN: XNBSAV U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON: 1986 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402 Federal Emergency Management Agency Washington, D.C. 20472 Foreword by The Honorable Julius W. Becton, Jr. Director Federal Emergency Management Agency As the recently appointed director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), I would like to reinforce the thought-provoking material contained in these Proceedings of the Symposium on the Theory and Application of Expert Systems in Emergency Management Operations. As pointed out in the symposium, expert systems hold unique advantages in the arena of emergency management. These systems can give you advice quicker, better and more extensively than panicked human beings. Quicker, because they can be consulted at any hour by using a personal computer. Better, because they contain the distilled opinion of a wide range of expertise. More extensively, because the computer can simultaneously consider a wider range of input factors than any human being. And the computer never panics, seldom sleeps, and has never been known to be absent. In the time that has passed since the symposium, FEMA has taken some of the first steps indicated by the symposium. We now have available on our computer or under development expert systems in such diverse areas as notification of emergency weather conditions and estimation of facility damage in earthquakes. The technology is being used to codify emergency expertise, and to improve our emergency management capabilities. The future is limited only by our imagination. One can imagine the ability to call a number and to be answered by a computer that can understand your speech. This computer would have a suite of expert systems which it would relate to your description of your problem, and give you the best advice available. The ability to perform smarter with less is and will continue to be a driving force. The publication of this document is evidence of our continued commitment to excellent research devoted to fulfilling human needs. i i i ABSTRACT The First Symposium on The Theory and Application of Expert Systems in Emergency Management, held at the Department of Commerce, Washington, DC (April 24 and 25, 1985) was funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and organized by the National Bureau of Standards' Operations Research Division. The purpose of the symposium was to bring together researchers in expert systems, artificial intelligence, and emergency operations in a forum to review the concepts of expert systems and the problems of emergency management, with the objective of determining how expert systems can be used to augment the experience of local, State and Federal emergency managers faced with the difficult tasks of determining the best response to an emergency situation. Speakers addressed the following areas: The theory and uncertainty aspects of expert systems, artificial intelligence's future role in emergency management, technology for building and using expert systems, emergency management decisions and information needs and uses, applications of expert systems in the management of chemical spills and shipboard and coal mine fires, and the role and use of simulation in emergency management expert systems. Keywords: Artificial intelligence; chemical spills; coal mine fires; decision support systems; emergency management; expert systems; fire management; shipboard fires; simulation; uncertainty Note: The paper "Emergency Management for Chemical Spills" by C. K. Johnson that was presented at the Symposium is not included in this volume. The interested reader should consult "Emergency Management of Inland Oil and Hazardous Chemical Spills: A Case Study in Knowledge Engineering," Chapter 10 in Bui ldi ng Expe r t System , F. Hayes-Roth, D. A. Waterman and Douglas B. Lenat (eds."J"» Addi son-Wesl ey Publishing Company, Inc., 1983. i v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Foreword -- Julius