Délivré par MONTPELLIER SUPAGRO Préparée au sein de l’école doctorale EDEG Et des unités de recherche SELMET et MOISA Spécialité: SCIENCES ECONOMIQUES Présentée par NGUYEN Mai Huong Structural Transformation and the Livestock Revolution in Vietnam: current situation and future scenarios for the dairy sector Transformation Structurelle et Révolution de l’Élevage au Vietnam: état des lieux et scénario d’avenir pour le secteur laitier Soutenue le 19 Décembre 2017 devant le jury composé de M. Bernard HUBERT, DR., AgroPolis International Rapporteur M. Philippe LEBAILLY, Professeur, Université de Liège Rapporteur M. Etienne MONTAIGNE, Professeur, Montpellier Examinateur SupAgro Mme. Isabelle BANTENWECK, Dr., ILRI Examinatrice M. Guillaume DUTEURTRE, Dr., CIRAD Examinateur Mme. Paule MOUSTIER, DR., CIRAD Directrice de thèse L’Ecole SupAgro de Montpellier École Doctorale Économie-Gestion de Montpellier THÈSE DE DOCTORAT Présenté par NGUYEN Mai Huong Spécialité: Sciences Économiques Structural Transformation and the Livestock Revolution in Vietnam: Current Situation and Future Scenarios for the Dairy sector Transformation Structurelle et Révolution de l’Élevage au Vietnam : état des lieux et scenario d’avenir pour le secteur laitier Sous la direction de : Paule MOUSTIER, DR., UMR MOISA, CIRAD Co-encadrée par : Bruno DORIN, Dr., UMR CIRED, CIRAD Guillaume DUTEURTRE, Dr. UMR SELMET, CIRAD Composition du Jury M. Bernard HUBERT, DR., Agropolis International Rapporteur M. Philippe LEBAILLY, Professeur, Université de Liège Rapporteur M. Etienne MONTAIGNE, Professeur, SupAgro Montpellier Examinateur Mme. Isabelle BANTENWECK, Dr., ILRI Examinatrice M. Guillaume DUTEURTRE, Dr., CIRAD Examinateur Mme. Paule Moustier, DR. CIRAD Directrice de thèse Ces travaux de thèse mis en place au sein du projet ‘Evaluation multi-échelle des trajectoires de développement de l’élevage au Vietnam’ (2013-2016) Financé par le programme AGROBIOSPHERE 2012 Sous la coopération scientifique entre CIRAD (UMP SELMET et UMR MOISA) et IPSARD (RUDEC) Laboratoires d’accueil UMR MOISA UMR SELMET CIRAD TA C-99/15 CIRAD TA C-112/A Département Environnements et Sociétés Département Environnements et Sociétés 73 rue J.F. Breton Campus international de Baillarguet 34398 Montpellier Cedex 5 34398 Montpellier Cedex 5, France France Laboratoire d’affection Centre de Développement Rural Institute de Politiques et Stratégie pour L’Agriculture et le Développement Rural 16 Thuy Khue, Tay Ho, Hanoi, Vietnam i CONTENTS PREFACE ........................................................................................................................ iii ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... v RÉSUMÉ .......................................................................................................................... vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................ vii REMERCIEMENTS .......................................................................................................... ix SIGLES ET ACRONYMES ............................................................................................... xi LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... xiii LIST OF COMMUNICATIONS AND ARTICLES ............................................................. xvi CHAPTER 1 ..................................................................................................................... 1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 1 1. Context: Livestock Revolution in the agricultural transformations ............................... 2 2. Problematic, objective of the thesis and research question ....................................... 11 3. Structure of the thesis ............................................................................................... 18 CHAPTER 2: .................................................................................................................. 27 STRUCTURAL TRANSFOMATION, AGRICULTURE AND EMPLOYMENT IN VIETNAM ....................................................................................................................................... 27 Structural Transformation, Agriculture and Employment in Vietnam ............................... 28 CHAPTER 3 ................................................................................................................... 77 GOVERNANCE OF THE DAIRY SECTOR IN VIETNAM ............................................... 77 What shapes the governance of the dairy value chain in Vietnam? Insights from Ba-Vì milkshed (Hanoi Province) .............................................................................................. 78 CHAPTER 4: ................................................................................................................ 106 SCENARIOS FOR THE DAIRY SECTOR IN VIETNAM TO 2030 ................................ 106 Scenarios for the Dairy Sector in Vietnam to 2030 ....................................................... 107 CHAPTER 5 ................................................................................................................. 147 GENERAL CONCLUSION ........................................................................................... 147 1. Research background, objective and methodology ................................................. 148 2. Summary of the main findings and discussion ........................................................ 149 3. Policy insights on sustainable livestock development ............................................. 159 4. Limitations of the thesis and perspective for further studies .................................... 164 ANNEX ......................................................................................................................... 169 TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................... 194 ii PREFACE Livestock constitutes one of the most rapid changing sectors in the developing world and is therefore primarily concerned with the risks associated to non-sustainable intensification and industrialization of agriculture. The concept of “livestock revolution’ has been proposed to underline this important transformation (Delgado et al., 1999). The rapid changes affecting livestock in Vietnam concern increasing demand, production techniques, farm structures, and the organization of the marketing chain. Those rapid changes are mainly driven by market forces and private firm strategies, but also by public rules affecting access to land, natural resources management, provisioning of services to producers, industrial technological transfer, food safety control, and marketing practices. This thesis aims to discuss possible development visions for the dairy sector in Vietnam at the interface of economic, social and environmental issues. The ongoing livestock revolution calls for appropriate policies and interventions to address emerging issues of the sector (labor, feed, animal welfare, environmental consequences), especially in developing countries like Vietnam where livestock development confronts pressure placed by the land shortage, labor drain, technology-driven intensive production model, etc. The present work is a contribution to this effort by providing policy makers with future plausible development pathways as a reference for their policy-making works. The thesis has been prepared in the context of a close collaboration between CIRAD laboratories (SELMET and MOISA research units) and a Vietnamese institute (RUDEC/IPSARD). SELMET puts diversity of livestock production systems and sustainable livestock sector in developing countries in their research agenda. MOISA focuses on strategies of different actors (public/private sector, individual/collective actor), governance and functioning institutions (markets, regulations) of the agricultural sector and food chains. RUDEC, a research center subordinated to the IPSARD/MARD, performs its research agenda in view of bottom-up policy advocacy in the field of agriculture and rural development. These teams share interest in and vision for economic, social, and environmental implications of livestock transformations (sector dynamics, innovations and institutions, governance, sustainable and inclusive development). The thesis is framed in the Revalter project (Multi-scale assessment of development pathway of livestock sector in Vietnam) funded by ANR Biosphere 2013-2016. The project aims at promoting a new vision of livestock development in Vietnam, a country faced with extremely rapid intensification and industrialization of the sector, by conducting a systemic approach of livestock-ecosystems relationships documented at 3 levels: farm, territories, and sub-sectors. Four major concepts are used in the project to address the complex questions related to sustainable livestock development: transition, governance, viability and sustainability. iii This word cloud has been generated using Wordclouds. The source texts used to create this cloud include the titles, abstracts, and key words of the thesis Chapters. The cloud gives greater prominence to words that appear more frequently in this manuscript. The cloud thus reflects the key words of this thesis. iv ABSTRACT In Vietnam, the dairy sector has emerged since the 2000s,