THE ENDANGERED ASIAN CENTURY JULY/AUGUST 2020 / / The World • After the Pandemic • • FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM FA_JA20_cover.indd All Pages 5/15/20 4:29 PM DOWNLOAD CSS Notes, Books, MCQs, Magazines www.thecsspoint.com Download CSS Notes Download CSS Books Download CSS Magazines Download CSS MCQs Download CSS Past Papers The CSS Point, Pakistan’s The Best Online FREE Web source for All CSS Aspirants. 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Osterholm and Mark Olshaker The Pandemic and Political Order 26 It Takes a State Francis Fukuyama COVER: A More Resilient Union 33 How Federalism Can Protect Democracy From Pandemics THE Danielle Allen HEADS OF When the System Fails 40 STATE COVID-19 and the Costs o Global Dysfunction Stewart Patrick July/August 2020 02_TOC_Blues.indd 1 5/18/20 5:52 PM ESSAYS The Endangered Asian Century 52 America, China, and the Perils o Confrontation Lee Hsien Loong The Age of Magic Money 65 Can Endless Spending Prevent Economic Calamity? Sebastian Mallaby How to Make Trade Work for Workers 78 Charting a Path Between Protectionism and Globalism Robert E. Lighthizer Pinning Down Putin 93 How a Condent America Should Deal With Russia Victoria Nuland The Rise of Strategic Corruption 107 How States Weaponize Graft Philip Zelikow, Eric Edelman, Kristofer Harrison, and Celeste Ward Gventer The Overmilitarization of American Foreign Policy 121 The United States Must Recover the Full Range o Its Power Robert M. Gates The Next Liberal Order 133 The Age o Contagion Demands More Internationalism, Not Less G. John Ikenberry How Hegemony Ends 143 The Unraveling o American Power Alexander Cooley and Daniel H. Nexon ON FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM Stacey Abrams on Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala Kevin Rudd on the American leadership on what comes after a coming post-pandemic at home and abroad. COVID-19 vaccine. international anarchy. July/August 2020 Book 1.indb 3 5/15/20 9:24 PM REVIEWS & RESPONSES Divided We Fall 158 What Is Tearing America Apart? Amy Chua After Capital 165 A Radical Agenda to Tame Inequality Arvind Subramanian This Land Is Not Your Land 171 The Ethnic Cleansing o Native Americans David Treuer The Case for Climate Pragmatism 176 Saving the Earth Requires Realism, Not Revolution Hal Harvey The Retrenchment Syndrome 183 A Response to “Come Home, America?” H. R. McMaster The Vision Thing 187 Is Grand Stategy Dead? Francis J. Gavin and James B. Steinberg; Daniel W. Drezner, Ronald R. Krebs, and Randall Schweller In Defense of Economists 193 A Response to “The Dismal Kingdom” Michael Feuer “Foreign Aairs . will tolerate wide dierences of opinion. Its articles will not represent any consensus of beliefs. What is demanded of them is that they shall be competent and well informed, representing honest opinions seriously held and convincingly expressed. It does not accept responsibility for the views in any articles, signed or unsigned, which appear in its pages. What it does accept is the responsibility for giving them a chance to appear.” Archibald Cary Coolidge, Founding Editor Volume 1, Number 1 • September 1922 July/August 2020 02_TOC_Blues.indd 5 5/18/20 5:53 PM July/August 2020 · Volume 99, Number 4 Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Editor, Peter G. Peterson Chair - Executive Editor , Managing Editors Web Editor Deputy Web Editor , Senior Editors Social Media and Audience Development Editor Sta Editor , Assistant Editors Art Director Copy Chie Business Operations Director Book Reviewers . , , . , . , , . , , . , , Chie­ Revenue O cer Circulation Operations Director Director o­ Product Marketing Director . 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No part o the magazine may be reproduced, hosted, or distributed in any form or by any means without prior written permission from Foreign A airs. To obtain permission, visit ForeignA airs.com/permissions Foreign A airs is a member o the Alliance for Audited Media and the Association o­ Magazine Media. GST Number 127686483RT Canada Post Customer #4015177 Publication #40035310 02_TOC_Blues.indd 6 5/18/20 5:53 PM CONTRIBUTORS LEE HSIEN LOONG graduated from Cambridge as the “Senior Wrangler,” the coveted title for the university’s top undergraduate student in mathematics. He then joined the military o his native Singapore and eventu- ally moved into politics, following in the footsteps o his father, Singapore’s longtime leader Lee Kuan Yew. Since 2004, he has served as the country’s prime minister. In “The Endangered Asian Century” (page 52), Lee warns that Asian countries should not be forced to choose between the United States and China. On her way to becoming perhaps the most experienced Russia hand at the U.S. State Department, VICTORIA NULAND cut her teeth at the Soviet desk in Washington and at the U.S. embassy in Moscow. She went on to serve as U.S. ambassador to NATO under President George W. Bush and later crafted the United States’ response to the Russian invasion o Crimea. In “Pinning Down Putin” (page 93), Nuland, today a distinguished practitioner in grand strategy at Yale, argues that Putin’s Russia is neither monolithic nor immutable. ROBERT GATES joined the CIA as a graduate student and became the only entry-level employee ever to rise to the position o director o central intelligence. As U.S. secretary o defense from 2006 to 2011, he oversaw the surge o U.S. troops in Iraq and U.S. operations in Afghanistan and overturned the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy. In “The Overmilitarization o American Foreign Policy” (page 121), Gates argues that in recent decades, U.S. foreign policy has relied too much on military action and has let other tools o American in¡ uence atrophy. ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN has spent his career at the forefront o economics and global development. A leading expert on trade since his days in the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund in the 1990s, he has taught at Harvard and Johns Hopkins. From 2014 to 2018, Subrama- nian served as chie economic adviser to the government o¤ India, where he was instrumental in popularizing the idea o a universal basic income. In “After Capital” (page 165), Subramanian reviews the French economist Thomas Piketty’s latest book, Capital and Ideology. 02_TOC_Blues.indd 7 5/18/20 5:54 PM Return to Table of Contents THE WORLD AFTER THE PANDEMIC ifteen years ago, after the ahead, he forecasts more failure and and H5N1 outbreaks, this political turbulence around the globe in Fmagazine ran an article called years to come. “Preparing for the Next Pandemic.” Danielle Allen notes how the United Two years later came “Unprepared for States’ early response was hampered not a Pandemic,” then others. Cut to 2017, just by poor leadership and federalism after and Ebola and Zika: but also by a lack o common social “Ready for a Global Pandemic? The purpose. And Stewart Patrick traces a Trump Administration May Be Woefully similar trend at the international level—a Underprepared.” None o this was global rush to closure, self-help, and prescience. It was conventional wisdom scapegoating rather than multilateralism. among public health experts. Anybody In country after country, politicians who didn’t understand the danger just unable to defend their own records have wasn’t paying attention. tried to deect attention onto scary, evil Still, even the Cassandras who saw foreigners, helping drive an emerging such a crisis coming have been shocked conviction that the real culprit in the crisis by how poorly it has been handled, as is globalization. The only way to reduce our lead package explains. Michael vulnerability, they say, is to cut ties to the Osterholm and Mark Olshaker trace how rest o the world—as i North Korean the failure to prepare was followed by a “self-reliance” oered a promising ideo- failure to contain. More than a century logical model for the twenty-rst century. on from 1918, we have proved little In truth, what is killing us is not better at combating a global pandemic connection; it is connection without than our great-grandparents were. So cooperation. And the cure is not isolation much for the march o progress. but deeper connection, the kind that can Francis Fukuyama writes that the support collective action. The doctors and initial phases o the emergency were a scientists around the world have acted brutal political stress test that only a dierently: reaching out to one another, handful o countries passed—those pooling their talents and resources, and with capable states, social trust, and showing what a true global community eective leadership.