1 e DEVELOPMENT ADVOCATE u s s I , 6 e m u l PAKISTAN o V Population Growth: Implications for Human Development DEVELOPMENT ADVOCATE PAKISTAN © UNDP Pakistan Development Advocate Pakistan provides a platform for the exchange of ideas on key development issues DEVELOPMENT ADVOCATE and challenges in Pakistan. Focusing on a specific development theme in each edition, this quarterly publication fosters public discourse and presents varying perspectives from civil society, academia, PAKISTAN government and development partners. The publication makes an explicit effort to include the voices of women and youth in the ongoing discourse. A combination of analysis and public opinion articles Disclaimer promote and inform debate on development ideas The views expressed here by external contributors or the members of the while presenting up-to-date information. editorial board do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Editorial Board organizations they work for and that of UNDP’s. Mr. Ignacio Artaza Resident Representative a.i., UNDP Pakistan Editorial Team Maheen Hassan Mr. Hamid Raza Afridi Umer Akhlaq Malik Policy Advisor Embassy of Switzerland Design Hasnat Ahmed Mr. Shakeel Ahmad Assistant Resident Representative/Chief Printed by: Development Policy Unit, UNDP Pakistan Gul Awan Printers, Islamabad Mr. Aadil Mansoor Assistant Resident Representative/Chief United Nations Development Programme Pakistan Crisis Prevention and Recovery Unit, UNDP Pakistan 4th Floor, Serena Business Complex, Khayaban-e-Suharwardy, Sector G-5/1, Mr. Kaiser Ishaque P. O. Box 1051, Assistant Resident Representative/Chief Islamabad, Pakistan Democratic Governance Unit, UNDP Pakistan Mr. Amanullah Khan Assistant Resident Representative/Chief For contributions and feedback, please write to us at: Environment and Climate Change Unit, UNDP [email protected] Pakistan Ms. Ayesha Babar ISBN: 978-969-8736-26-9 Communications Analyst, UNDP Pakistan March 2019 CONTENTS Analysis Interviews 02 The Dynamics of Population in Pakistan 22 Lina Mousa Representative, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Pakistan 25 Shaheen Attiq-ur-Rahman Former Member, Standing Committee on Literacy and Opinion Non-Formal Basic Education Former Member, Standing Committee on Population Welfare Former Minister for Social Welfare and Women's Impact of Population Growth Development, Government of Punjab 12 on Child Rights in Pakistan Child Commissoner, Mehnaz Akber Aziz Mohtasib Alla's Secretariat, Federal Government 15 Population Growth: Implications 27 Ehsan-ul-Haq for Human Development Chief Executive Officer G.M.Arif National Trust for Population (NATPOW) Azra Aziz The Nexus between Women 30 18 Empowerment and Population Trends Director Research, Survey and Evaluation National Institute of Population Studies Dr. Yasmeen Sabeeh Qazi Pakistan's Population and its 20 Dwindling Natural Resources Zeba Sathar Youth Voices 32 Aliza Sadiq Danyal Shah Hibah Jamshed 33 Shafi Ullah Saleha Saleem Ahmed Sufi /undppakistan w us www.twitter.com/undp_pakistan Saleem Mandviwalla ollo www wwwPr.pkovincial.undp nominee.org for NFC - Sindh F © UNDP Pakistan Editorial Pakistan’s Population Challenge Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world with its in 1971–close to Pakistan's population of 65 million in 1972. Today, population estimated at 207.8 million in 2017. Its population growth the population of Bangladesh stands at 164.7 million with an annual rate of 2.40 percent is the highest in South Asia and stands in sharp growth rate of 1 percent. It launched a successful family planning contrast to the 1.0–1.5 percent growth rate of other South Asian programme soon after independence that was based on recruit- countries. Pakistan's population has increased by more than six-folds ment of young married women trained to provide door to door since the rst post-independence census held in 1951. This massive services on contraceptive use. This was coupled with a mushroom growth in population possesses serious challenges for the country's growth in rural family planning clinics and extensive awareness socio-economic development. raising through different means of outreach. The high growth in population could be attributed to a number of Similarly, Iran has documented one of the fastest drops in fertility factors. Pakistan has the lowest contraceptive prevalence rate in rates, from 6.5 births per woman in 1980 to 1.6 by 2017. This is South Asia, which has stagnated at 35 percent over the last couple of attributed to a successful programme that engaged religious years. One in ve married women in Pakistan are unable to access institutions and reputed clergymen on family planning, increased effective methods of family planning if they want to avoid access to free contraceptives, counselling for new couples and mass pregnancy and plan the number and spacing of children. Low media for raising awareness on family planning. contraceptive prevalence may be further attributed to weak service delivery systems and markets and cultural norms. The abovementioned successful family planning programmes have addressed both demand and supply side drivers. Pakistan should Between 1993 to 1998, Pakistan ran a successful family planning also employ an integrated approach to population control. On the programme which was instrumental in reducing fertility rates and supply side, it needs to increase the outreach and quality of services increasing contraceptive prevalence. The key element of the while on the demand side, it has to create awareness and the programme was the recruitment of trained Lady Health Workers community's demand for family planning services. Focused efforts (LHW) to provide primary health care and family planning services to on both supply and demand side are important for optimizing women at community level. The LHW were pivotal in expanding population growth rate. family planning services to the poor and educating them on the available methods. However, from 2000 onwards, successive Without addressing the population challenge, Pakistan will continue governments' attention to family planning programmes started to to face a phenomenal task in achieving higher ranks on the Human reduce. Development Index (HDI). Data shows that accelerated progress in human development and reduction in population growth rate have However, it is encouraging to note that population and family mostly occurred simultaneously. When Bangladesh surpassed planning is now again getting space on the government's policy Pakistan in HDI in 1997, it had a much slower growth in population agenda. The Federal Government has constituted a Task Force on than Pakistan's. Between 1990 to 2000, Bangladesh's population Population and Family Planning to develop a strategy for controlling grew by 24 percent while Pakistan's population expanded by 32 population growth and guiding its implementation. The Task Force, percent. Higher population puts stress on service delivery systems headed by the Prime Minister which includes all provincial Chief and hence reduces the outreach of services. Ministers as members, is working towards three key targets; increasing contraceptive prevalence rate to 55 percent, reducing A new person is added in Pakistan every 8 seconds and at the going fertility rate from 3.6 births per woman to 2.1, and decreasing rate, the total population is projected to exceed 350 million people population growth rate to 1.5 percent. Given the devolved gover- by 2070. Without coordinated, urgent and dedicated efforts, nance structure in Pakistan, the inclusion of Chief Ministers in the Pakistan is unlikely to achieve its 2020 target for increasing contra- Task Force is key to implementing a coordinated and comprehensive ceptive prevalence to 55 percent as part of its commitment at the family planning programme. Family Planning Summit, 2017. A holistic approach with inclusion of provincial and other stakeholders, is required to formulate a sound Pakistan could learn from other Muslim countries that have policy and oversee its execution. The reduction in population successfully controlled their population growth rates, such as growth rate is an important enabler for accelerating human Bangladesh and Iran. Bangladesh's population was almost 71 million development and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. 01 Analysis The Dynamics of Population in Pakistan Note: The Main Analysis has been written by the team at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) including, Dr. Dur-e-Nayab (Joint Director and Director Research), Dr. Rizwan-ul-Haq (Assistant Professor) and Dr. Saima Bashir (Senior Research Demographer). Background Table 1: Population Size and Growth in Censuses 1951-2017 Population Average Annual Intercensal Growth Rate Pakistan is confronted with a host of issues. Census Year (in millions) (percentage) These include low human capital, scal constraints, poor quality of health, energy 1951 33.78 - shortages, food, water and energy 1961 42.98 2.5 insecurities, high unemployment rate, especially among youth, and vulnerabilities 1972 65.31 3.7 linked to gender, religion and ethnicity. It 1981 84.25 3.1 would not be wrong to assume that 1998 133.35 2.7 underlying all these issues, is the much neglected, large population in the country, 2017* 207.77 2.4 with a consistently high growth rate. Source: Population Censuses of Pakistan. Note: * Denotes Provisional Results. Despite having the oldest population planning programme in the region, after a passage of two years, was carried out reects the momentum