UK Climate Risk Independent Assessment (CCRA3) Technical Report Chapter 7: International Dimensions Lead Authors: Andy Challinor, Tim G. Benton Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report 1 Contributing Authors: Thirze Hermans, Helen Adams, Louise Beveridge, Leslie-Anne Duvic-Paoli, Aled Jones, Andy Morse, Declan Conway, Alistair Hunt, Duncan Depledge, Tim Hess, Carlton Evans Additional Contributors: George Hutchinson, Miriam Kennedy, Andrew Norton, Andrew Russell This chapter should be cited as: Challinor, A. and Benton, T. G. (2021) International dimensions. In: The Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report [Betts, R.A., Haward, A.B. and Pearson, K.V. (eds.)]. Prepared for the Climate Change Committee, London Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report 2 Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report Contents Key messages .......................................................................................................................................... 3 7.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 6 7.1.1 Scope of chapter ........................................................................................................................ 6 7.1.2 Point of departure ...................................................................................................................... 7 7.1.3 Transmission pathways and framework for international dimensions of risk ........................ 10 7.1.4 Socio-economic change ........................................................................................................... 14 7.2 Risks to UK food availability, safety, and quality from climate change impacts overseas (ID1) ..... 15 7.2.1 Current and future level of risk (ID1) ....................................................................................... 18 7.2.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (ID1) ............................................... 24 7.2.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (ID1) ........................................... 26 7.2.4 Looking ahead (ID1) ................................................................................................................. 27 7.3 Opportunities for UK food availability and exports from climate change impacts overseas (ID2) 28 7.3.1 Current and future level of opportunity (ID2) ......................................................................... 28 7.3.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the opportunity (ID2) ................................. 32 7.3.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (ID2) ........................................... 33 7.3.4 Looking ahead (ID2) ................................................................................................................. 33 7.4 Risks and opportunities to the UK from climate-related international human mobility (ID3) ....... 34 7.4.1 Current and future level of risk and opportunity (ID3) ............................................................ 36 7.4.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk and opportunity (ID3) ................... 40 7.4.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (ID3) ........................................... 41 7.4.4 Looking ahead (ID3) ................................................................................................................. 43 7.5 Risks to the UK from violent conflict overseas resulting from climate change (ID4) ..................... 43 7.5.1 Current and future level of risk (ID4) ....................................................................................... 44 7.5.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (ID4) ............................................... 49 7.5.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (ID4) ........................................... 50 7.5.4 Looking ahead (ID4) ................................................................................................................. 51 7.6 Risks to international law and governance from climate change that will impact the UK (ID5) .... 51 7.6.1 Current and future level of risk (ID5) ....................................................................................... 51 7.6.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (ID5) ............................................... 56 7.6.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (ID5) ........................................... 58 7.6.4 Looking ahead (ID5) ................................................................................................................. 59 7.7 Opportunities from climate change (including Arctic sea ice melt) for international trade routes (ID6)....................................................................................................................................................... 59 7.7.1 Current and future level opportunity (ID6) ............................................................................. 59 7.7.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (ID6) ............................................... 62 7.7.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (ID6) ........................................... 63 7.7.4 Looking ahead (ID6) ................................................................................................................. 64 7.8 Risks associated with international trade routes (ID7) ................................................................... 64 7.8.1 Current and future level of risk (ID7) ....................................................................................... 65 7.8.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (ID7) ............................................... 70 7.8.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (ID7) ........................................... 71 7.8.4 Looking ahead (ID7) ................................................................................................................. 71 Chapter 7 – International Dimensions 1 Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report 7.9 Risks to the UK finance sector from climate change impact overseas (ID8) .................................. 72 7.9.1 Current and future level of risk (ID8) ....................................................................................... 72 7.9.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (ID8) ............................................... 75 7.9.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (ID8) ........................................... 76 7.9.4 Looking ahead (ID8) ................................................................................................................. 78 7.10 Risks to UK public health from climate change impacts overseas (ID9) ....................................... 78 7.10.1 Current and future level of risk (ID9) ..................................................................................... 79 7.10.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (ID9) ............................................. 85 7.10.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (ID9) ......................................... 86 7.10.4 Looking ahead (ID9) ............................................................................................................... 87 7.11 Systemic risks arising from the amplification of named risks cascading across sectors and borders (ID10) ....................................................................................................................................... 87 7.11.1 Current and future level of risk (ID10) ................................................................................... 89 7.11.2 Extent to which current adaptation will manage the risk (ID10) ........................................... 93 7.11.3 Benefits of further adaptation action in the next five years (ID10) ....................................... 94 7.11.4 Looking ahead (ID10) ............................................................................................................. 95 7.12 References .................................................................................................................................... 96 Chapter 7 – International Dimensions 2 Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report Key messages The CCRA2 Evidence Report was the first UK national risk assessment to include a chapter on the international dimensions of climate change. The evidence presented here builds on CCRA2, particularly with regard to the growing body of evidence on how direct and indirect risks can interact and amplify. This report therefore includes risks resulting directly from a changing climate (e.g., on food production, human mobility from extreme weather) as well as risks resulting from indirect effects, which are associated with conditions that weaken resilience and with risk amplification. The key messages from this analysis are: Evidence since CCRA2 shows that the urgency of action for some of the risks associated with the international dimensions of climate change is greater than previously assessed. These risks include food security, violent conflict, international law and governance, and public health. Two factors underpin this step change in assessed urgency: greater evidence of climate change