FLIGHT SAFETY FOUNDATION NOVEMBER 2002 FLIGHT SAFETY DIGEST Future Developments and Challenges in Aviation Safety FLIGHT SAFETY FOUNDATION For Everyone Concerned With the Safety of Flight Flight Safety Digest Officers and Staff Vol. 21 No. 11 November 2002 Hon. Carl W. Vogt Chairman, Board of Governors Stuart Matthews In This Issue President and CEO Robert H. Vandel Future Developments and Challenges Executive Vice President In Aviation Safety 1 James S. Waugh Jr. Continued dedication and hard work will be required to Treasurer maintain a high level of safety as the coming years bring ADMINISTRATIVE increased growth in air travel and the attendant demands on Ellen Plaugher personnel and the infrastructure. Special Events and Products Manager Linda Crowley Horger Manager, Support Services Data Show 393 Accidents Among Western-built Large Commercial Jets 13 FINANCIAL Crystal N. Phillips From 1992 Through 2001 Director of Finance and Administration Data compiled by The Boeing Co. show that 52 percent of Millicent Wheeler the accidents were controlled-flight-into-terrain accidents or Accountant approach-and-landing accidents. TECHNICAL James M. Burin Report Describes Study of Airport Director of Technical Programs Decision-making Processes 17 Joanne Anderson Technical Programs Specialist The Eurocontrol project, conducted at Barcelona (Spain) Louis A. Sorrentino III Airport, was intended to improve operations by increasing Managing Director of Internal Evaluation Programs information-sharing among airport personnel, aircraft Robert Feeler operators, the handling agent, air traffic services providers Q-Star Program Administrator and Eurocontrol. Robert Dodd, Ph.D. Manager, Data Systems and Analysis Abrupt Rudder Deflection Prompts Darol V. Holsman Manager of Aviation Safety Audits Emergency Landing 19 MEMBERSHIP The captain of the Boeing 747-400 said that asymmetric Ann Hill engine thrust, full right rudder and full right aileron were Director, Membership and Development required to maintain the correct heading during the Kim Granados emergency landing at an airport in the United States. Membership Manager Ahlam Wahdan Membership Services Coordinator PUBLICATIONS Roger Rozelle Director of Publications Mark Lacagnina Senior Editor Wayne Rosenkrans Senior Editor Linda Werfelman Senior Editor Karen K. Ehrlich Web and Print Production Coordinator Cover photo: © Copyright 2002 Getty Images Inc. Ann L. Mullikin Flight Safety Foundation is an international membership organization dedicated Production Designer to the continuous improvement of aviation safety. Nonprofit and independent, Susan D. Reed the Foundation was launched officially in 1947 in response to the aviation Production Specialist industry’s need for a neutral clearinghouse to disseminate objective safety information, and for a credible and knowledgeable body that would identify Patricia Setze threats to safety, analyze the problems and recommend practical solutions to Librarian, Jerry Lederer Aviation Safety Library them. Since its beginning, the Foundation has acted in the public interest to produce positive influence on aviation safety. Today, the Foundation provides Jerome Lederer leadership to more than 910 member organizations in more than 142 countries. President Emeritus Future Developments and Challenges In Aviation Safety Continued dedication and hard work will be required to maintain a high level of safety as the coming years bring increased growth in air travel and the attendant demands on personnel and the infrastructure. Stuart Matthews Concern for safety has been a constant companion to aviation airplanes are flown. Substantial research into aerodynamics throughout its long history in myth and fact. Greek mythology in Europe and in the United States provided a wealth of baseline instructs us, through the tale of Icarus and his father Daedalus, knowledge to improve efficiency and safety. that the limits of man and machine are ignored at one’s peril. Pioneering flights in balloons and gliders were rife with The knowledge gained about structures, materials and accidents, and the quest for powered flight brought its own powerplants enabled the industry to design and operate unique set of hazards. The advent of successful powered flight aircraft better and more safely. As mastery of structural design continued the accumulation of lessons on safety. and reliable powerplants have made failures of these airplane features extremely rare; the resulting improved reliability of Ignorance, in one form or another, generally has always been the machine has, in effect, “unmasked” the human operator’s at the root of safety problems, in that flight has continually frailties and shortcomings, which resided within the pushed the boundaries of man’s knowledge. Ignorance about operational system from the beginning. aerodynamics, structures, weather and fire often resulted in humans straying into areas where operational knowledge did A new term was coined: human error, replacing pilot error, not exist. Pressures to challenge the boundaries of knowledge recognizing that human failures in judgment and decisions are grew from the seductive economic potential of the air not limited to the cockpit. Just as our ignorance of the machine transportation of people and cargo, as we sought to fly higher has given way to new understanding, so we now are beginning and faster and carry ever-heavier loads. As aviation grew, some to recognize external factors that allow errors to be made and spectacular accidents brought unrelenting focus on our to understand the human-machine relationships in ways that ignorance. reduce the risks of flight. Accompanying the trial-and-error improvements made by Understanding weather and acquiring the means to forecast it learning from mistakes through the developing art of systematic accurately were a focus of research begun in the late 1930s accident investigation, scientific research and technical and accelerated during World War II. In more recent years, development sought to anticipate problems and to increase focus on improving the gathering and analysis of weather knowledge and understanding of the environment in which information has given us a fine-scale resolution of weather FLIGHT SAFETY FOUNDATION • FLIGHT SAFETY DIGEST • NOVEMBER 2002 1 phenomena that has led, in turn, to means of accurately into many airports not normally served by scheduled air detecting and forecasting clear air turbulence, wind shear and carriers. other hazardous conditions. Shifts in traditional corporate aviation patterns include the These are the foundations upon which modern safety practices emergence of aircraft-sharing among two or more companies, and international safety developments are based. and the formation of business jet units by commercial airlines, such as United Airlines’ BizJet Holdings. Aviation Industry Growth General Aviation The growth of the aviation industry, especially in recent years, While the preponderance of personally owned aircraft activity often has outpaced the ability of the infrastructure to permit takes place in North America, there has been a strengthening the full realization of new efficiencies and the satisfaction of of the industry in virtually every region of the world, as customer demand. reflected by the 55-plus member countries of the International Council of Aircraft Owner and Pilot Associations (IAOPA).4 Commercial Air Transport Manufacturing Aviation has enjoyed steady growth in both passenger traffic and air cargo shipments. The worldwide fleet has expanded Fueled by the increasing demand in air commerce, forecasts to satisfy this growth, and this is expected to continue for the for the next 20 years indicate that the air transport business foreseeable future. Notwithstanding the current slowdown, will be one of the world’s great growth industries, requiring according to the International Civil Aviation Organization over 15,000 new transport aircraft with a value of US$1.3 (ICAO), total world airline scheduled passenger traffic, in trillion. The air cargo or freighter fleet is expected to double terms of passenger-kilometers, is expected to grow at an over the next 20 years — from 1,742 to more than 3,500 average annual rate of 4.5 percent during the current decade, airplanes — and, as a share of the total fleet, is expected to continuing a similar record for the previous 10 years. Total remain at about the current level of 11 percent to 12 percent. freight traffic growth, measured in freight ton-kilometers, Taking into account the anticipated retirement from the current over the same period is expected to be even stronger, at 6.0 fleet of about 1,238 airplanes, more than 3,000 additional percent per year.1 airplanes will be added to the freighter fleet by 2020.5 International traffic (passenger-kilometers) is expected to Fragmentation of the market over the last 20 years has led to continue to grow faster than the overall rate, at 5.5 percent per the design, development and production of jet transports year; 6.5 percent per year for cargo (ton-kilometers). In terms optimized for specific markets. As an example, before U.S. of aircraft departures on scheduled services, the next decade airline deregulation, Trans World Airlines (TWA) had one is expected to see an increase of about one-third, with the Boeing 747 flight daily from Chicago, Illinois, U.S., to number of aircraft-kilometers flown growing by about half.2 London, England. Today, American Airlines and United Airlines, using smaller B-767s and B-777s, serve 11 Regionally,