Transcript: Q&A Challenges and Choices for the UK: Foreign Affairs Anne Applebaum Director, Transitions Forum, Legatum Institute Timothy Garton Ash Professor of European Studies, University of Oxford Dr Robin Niblett CMG Director, Chatham House James Rubin Columnist, The Sunday Times; Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs and Chief Spokesman for Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright (1997-2000) Chair: Ritula Shah Presenter, The World Tonight, BBC Radio 4 16 April 2015 The views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the speaker(s) and participants do not necessarily reflect the view of Chatham House, its staff, associates or Council. Chatham House is independent and owes no allegiance to any government or to any political body. It does not take institutional positions on policy issues. This document is issued on the understanding that if any extract is used, the author(s)/ speaker(s) and Chatham House should be credited, preferably with the date of the publication or details of the event. Where this document refers to or reports statements made by speakers at an event every effort has been made to provide a fair representation of their views and opinions. The published text of speeches and presentations may differ from delivery. 10 St James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE T +44 (0)20 7957 5700 F +44 (0)20 7957 5710 www.chathamhouse.org Patron: Her Majesty The Queen Chairman: Stuart Popham QC Director: Dr Robin Niblett Charity Registration Number: 208223 2 Challenges and Choices for the UK: Foreign Affairs: Q&A Question 1 Is it absolutely necessary to renew Trident, with either a like-for-like system or a slightly minimized system, to remain, if we still are, a leading power? Robin Niblett Thank you so much for that question to be first. There are different views within Chatham House actually on the topic. I suppose I have to put my cards on the table on this one. I don't think it's a matter of whether we are a great power or not in today's world. I think, as we've heard already around the table, what defines a great power – certainly what defines influence – is changing in today's world. In fact, we didn't have time to get into it enough. I think to be fair to this government, it is grappling around – and the next will have to as well – with ways of influence that don't look like they did 20 years ago. Who's in which military conflict and who's in another. We are at a stage where Britain is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, one of the legitimate nuclear power states. Given the state of world affairs today, which it strikes me is going through a very risky rebalancing of power and influence – the rise of China, a very nervous Russia not enjoying where it's ending up on the power balance – that for a country like the UK to say, hey, we'll take the lead and pull back from being a credible nuclear power at this time, in my opinion, isn't the job of a British government. So then you go to the like-for-like – sorry, your question wasn't just about being a nuclear power. Like- for-like, I understand that – and I'm really not enough of an expert on it – that actually this is the best option that is most credible. Whether you need four boats or three boats to have continuous at-sea deterrence, I don't know. To be frank, there are others who know better than I do. But it's interesting that the Lib Dems, the Conservatives and Labour all seem to be sitting around roughly that position. So my point would be, if that is the most credible deterrent – and a huge amount of study has gone into it, and £4 billion have been spent already, by the way, into this option – I think this wouldn't be the time to change the course we're on. Very dangerous time in international affairs. Anne Applebaum I don't think it's actually important which form it takes, but it is extremely important that Britain remain a credible nuclear power. By which I mean it has nuclear weapons, it's willing to use them, and the one real nuclear threat on the European continent – namely, Russia – is aware of that. However you do it, however you invest the money, it is extremely important that that remains. Question 2 It is often said that British foreign policy gives rise to Islamophobia in this country, and in return Islamophobia causes radicalization and causes a lot of trouble for the Muslim community, old and new. The youth actually is disenchanted, disillusioned, disconnected. Sometimes they are actually not following their parents' advice as well. So how are you going to prevent Islamophobia in this country? Question 3 I'm from the Mexican chamber of commerce. Every time I come to Chatham House, it's amazing how we can talk about the whole world and Latin America never gets mentioned. In the year where Mexico and 3 Challenges and Choices for the UK: Foreign Affairs: Q&A the UK are supposedly having a special relationship this year, and the energy sector is opening up, I find it baffling that it always happens. So could you say something about that? Ritula Shah James Rubin, I'm going to come to you first on that Latin America question. If you're the United States, you're so much more aware of everything that goes on south of your border. Is it rather far away for us? Is it understandable to you? James Rubin When I was in the government, I had this job as a spokesman, and the last question I always came to, which I wished had never come up, which used to torture us, was Cuba. It would be, why do we have an embargo on Cuba and we don't have one on China? This and that, all the inconsistencies that applied to Cuba. We developed very elaborate and seemingly sensible answers. But those days are over. I think that's good news for Latin America, because it can avoid this situation where Latin American countries, in my opinion, exaggerate their interest in the Cuba issue in order to find something to beat up the United States, and the United States has to persuade Latin American countries to support our embargo. It's a big waste of time because nothing gets done, nobody ever changes their position. Now we'll have a chance to see who was right about what will promote change in Cuba, if change happens. We may discover that neither policy will work, integration or isolation. But the bottom line is that Latin America will no longer have this obsession with debating Cuba. I think both our Mexican and American governments will be pleased by that. Ritula Shah Timothy Garton Ash, we also heard about this idea that foreign policy may perhaps lead to Islamophobia and that in turn leads to radicalization. Even that chain of events is very contentious. How do you view the connection between those things? Timothy Garton Ash I think that we don't fully understand the phenomenon of radicalization, and we should not pretend we do understand how it can be that a 16-year-old schoolgirl from a reasonably comfortable background, growing up in Britain, decides to go off and be a 'jihadi bride' in Syria. I think that's the first thing to say. We need to understand it. Clearly what happened in Iraq, what happened in Bosnia before that, what happens in Palestine, what happens in Syria, as related through various extremist websites and media, has an impact. But it's only one of the factors that I believe radicalizes people. What is really important for us constantly to insist is that the vast majority of British and European Muslims are Brits, Europeans, fellow citizens, going about their lives, abiding by the law, along with all the rest of us, and not to generalize about a whole community. I think that is very important to hang onto, and then to understand what really leads to radicalization. Robin Niblett The only comment I would make is I think Arab governments have a lot to answer for on where radicalization has come from. We spend a lot of time beating ourselves up and undoubtedly bad choices 4 Challenges and Choices for the UK: Foreign Affairs: Q&A have been made historically as well as recently by European governments, amongst others. But ultimately, this is something that has to be resolved as well internally. We don't see Indonesia and other Islamic parts of the world going up in flames in the same way we do in the Middle East. Question 4 Given that the United States and the United Kingdom guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine, shouldn't they at least be willing to supply arms to the Ukraine government? Isn't the parallel with the Sudetan crisis quite striking? Question 5 The elephant in the room on the Middle East, which none of you have referred to so far, seems to me to be Israel. One of the reasons perhaps for the radicalization of some of the younger members of the Muslim community may lie in the fact that there's been a totally inadequate response to the trampling of Palestinian rights and capabilities by the present Israel regime, and the trampling on UN resolutions that have forbidden settlements which keep on spreading.